Model Report Card: September 2026
Every month we grade the model in public. This is September 2026, measured: 3,737 selections settled, a 54.6% strike rate, and a loss of 120.4 units — ROI of -4.8% to level stakes. All of it comes from the same append-only archive that powers the results page, settled against the odds available at publication — losing runs included.
A losing month. We publish it with the same prominence as a winning one, because a record you can only see when it flatters is not a record.
The month by market
| Market | Picks | Won | Strike | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | 596 | 405 | 69.2% | -7.1% |
| Correct score | 596 | 75 | 12.8% | – |
| HT/FT | 596 | 168 | 28.7% | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 592 | 460 | 79% | -4.9% |
| First half over 0.5 | 560 | 402 | 72.7% | -6.2% |
| Both teams to score | 409 | 252 | 62.5% | -1.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 355 | 224 | 63.8% | -2.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20 | 14 | 70% | +6.6% |
| First half over 1.5 | 13 | 8 | 61.5% | -4.4% |
Markets with fewer than three settled picks are folded into the totals rather than presented as if three results were a trend. Average winning odds across the month: 1.37.
Calls of the month
- Best-priced winner: Both teams to score in Gateshead v Southend (finished 1-6) at odds 1.80
- Toughest loss: Over 1.5 goals in FC Schalke 04 v Bayern München (finished 0-0) at odds 1.06 — short prices lose too, which is exactly why no probability on this site ever reads 100%.
Where the work was
- National League — 493 selections, 55.4% strike rate, ROI -3.7%
- League Two — 359 selections, 53.7% strike rate, ROI -1.1%
- League One — 350 selections, 48.3% strike rate, ROI -12.9%
Read it honestly
One month is a sample, not a verdict. The model's claim has never been that it wins every week — it is that its probabilities are honest, its record is tamper-evident, and over enough selections the edge shows. The method page explains how the numbers are made, the results page lets you download every row behind this report, and today's predictions are tomorrow's report card.
Betting involves risk, and probabilities are estimates rather than promises. Set a budget, stick to it, and treat any bet as entertainment with a cost.