Kick-off 2026-09-15 18:00 UTC
Ajax
v
Willem II
Netherlands · Eredivisie
Tue 15 Sep, 18:00 UTC
Ajax to win
· 87% model probability
· odds 1.10 · edge -3.9 pts
Of every market it prices for this fixture, the model is most drawn to Ajax to win, which it rates at 87%. Form lines of DDWDL and LWWWW tell part of the story; the model also weighs opposition quality and scoring patterns in Eredivisie. As always, that is a probability rather than a promise, and short priced outcomes still lose.
Missing — Ajax: D. Blind (missing fixture), S. Adingra (missing fixture), A. Bouwman (missing fixture) · Willem II: T. Didillon (missing fixture), J. Hoogma (missing fixture), V. van Crooij (missing fixture) +4 more
Model
Goals 4.2
Corners 9.9 (5.0H · 4.9A)
Cards 3.4
BTTS 50%
O2.5 78%
Odds
Home 1.10
Draw 9.00
Away 21.00
BTTS 1.80
O2.5 1.22
More Ajax to win tips
· Eredivisie predictions
Alaves
v
Valencia
Spain · La Liga
Tue 15 Sep, 18:00 UTC
Alaves to win
· 56% model probability
· odds 1.67 · edge -3.9 pts ▼ Steaming 24.1%
This one comes down to Alaves to win. The model puts it at 56%, its highest figure for the match. Alaves arrive on a WWLWL run while Valencia have gone LWWDL, which is what the underlying ratings are reacting to. No estimate settles a football match. The figure describes likelihood, nothing firmer.
Missing — Alaves: F. Garcés (missing fixture), A. Manas (missing fixture), Mikel Rodríguez (missing fixture) · Valencia: M. Diakhaby (missing fixture), G. Rodríguez (missing fixture), Sergi Canós (missing fixture) +6 more
Model
Goals 2.5
Corners 9.0 (4.7H · 4.2A)
Cards 4.6
BTTS 46%
O2.5 45%
Odds
Home 1.67
Draw 3.60
Away 5.75
BTTS 1.95
O2.5 2.10
More Alaves to win tips
· La Liga predictions
Kick-off 2026-09-15 18:45 UTC
Falkirk
v
Heart Of Midlothian
Scotland · Premiership
Tue 15 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Both teams to score
· 58% model probability
· odds 1.67 · edge -1.9 pts
The standout number in the model's output is 58% for both teams to score. Falkirk arrive on a LLLWL run while Heart Of Midlothian have gone LLDWD, which is what the underlying ratings are reacting to. No estimate settles a football match. The figure describes likelihood, nothing firmer.
Model
Goals 2.9
Corners 10.4 (4.5H · 5.8A)
Cards 4.1
BTTS 58%
O2.5 56%
Odds
Home 3.90
Draw 3.70
Away 1.85
BTTS 1.67
O2.5 1.73
More Both teams to score tips
Hibernian
v
Kilmarnock
Scotland · Premiership
Tue 15 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Hibernian to win
· 67% model probability
· odds 1.42 · edge -3.4 pts ▼ Steaming 15.0%
Of every market it prices for this fixture, the model is most drawn to Hibernian to win, which it rates at 67%. Recent form reads LLLLW for Hibernian and LWWLL for Kilmarnock, and the ratings behind those sequences drive the price. Treat the number as an estimate. It describes the balance of chances, not the result.
Model
Goals 3.3
Corners 10.1 (5.1H · 5.0A)
Cards 4.3
BTTS 56%
O2.5 63%
Odds
Home 1.42
Draw 4.75
Away 6.50
BTTS 1.67
O2.5 1.50
More Hibernian to win tips
Motherwell
v
Aberdeen
Scotland · Premiership
Tue 15 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Motherwell to win
· 54% model probability
· odds 1.83 · edge -0.6 pts ▼ Steaming 20.4%
The standout number in the model's output is 54% for Motherwell to win. Form lines of WDLDL and LLDLL tell part of the story; the model also weighs opposition quality and scoring patterns in Premiership. As always, that is a probability rather than a promise, and short priced outcomes still lose.
Model
Goals 2.9
Corners 9.0 (4.1H · 4.9A)
Cards 4.2
BTTS 56%
O2.5 54%
Odds
Home 1.83
Draw 3.80
Away 3.90
BTTS 1.67
O2.5 1.73
More Motherwell to win tips
Bristol City
v
Lincoln
England · Championship
Tue 15 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Bristol City to win
· 50% model probability
· odds 1.83 · edge -4.6 pts ▼ Steaming 10.7%
Of every market it prices for this fixture, the model is most drawn to Bristol City to win, which it rates at 50%. Form lines of LWLWL and LWDDW tell part of the story; the model also weighs opposition quality and scoring patterns in Championship. As always, that is a probability rather than a promise, and short priced outcomes still lose.
Missing — Bristol City: Luke McNally (missing fixture) · Lincoln: T. Hamer (questionable), T. Darikwa (missing fixture), M. Melia (missing fixture)
Model
Goals 2.6
Corners 9.4 (5.0H · 4.4A)
Cards 3.8
BTTS 52%
O2.5 48%
Odds
Home 1.83
Draw 3.50
Away 4.20
BTTS 1.83
O2.5 2.00
More Bristol City to win tips
· Championship predictions
Middlesbrough
v
Millwall
England · Championship
Tue 15 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Middlesbrough to win
· 65% model probability
· odds 1.48 · edge -2.6 pts
Of every market it prices for this fixture, the model is most drawn to Middlesbrough to win, which it rates at 65%. Recent form reads WDWWL for Middlesbrough and WDDWD for Millwall, and the ratings behind those sequences drive the price. Treat the number as an estimate. It describes the balance of chances, not the result.
Missing — Millwall: C. De Norre (missing fixture), Massimo Luongo (questionable), A. Doughty (missing fixture) +7 more
Model
Goals 3.1
Corners 10.4 (5.7H · 4.7A)
Cards 3.6
BTTS 55%
O2.5 60%
Odds
Home 1.48
Draw 4.75
Away 6.25
BTTS 1.67
O2.5 1.57
More Middlesbrough to win tips
· Championship predictions
Aldershot Town
v
Yeovil Town
England · National League
Tue 15 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Both teams to score
· 59% model probability
· odds 1.67 · edge -0.9 pts
The model makes both teams to score its strongest angle here, at an estimated 59% likelihood. Aldershot Town arrive on a LWWDL run while Yeovil Town have gone LWDDL, which is what the underlying ratings are reacting to. No estimate settles a football match. The figure describes likelihood, nothing firmer.
Model
Goals 2.9
BTTS 59%
O2.5 55%
Odds
Home 2.10
Draw 3.60
Away 3.00
BTTS 1.67
O2.5 1.75
More Both teams to score tips
· National League predictions
Boston United
v
Woking
England · National League
Tue 15 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Boston United to win
· 42% model probability
· odds 2.15 · edge -4.5 pts
This one comes down to Boston United to win. The model puts it at 42%, its highest figure for the match. Form lines of LLLWL and LLLWW tell part of the story; the model also weighs opposition quality and scoring patterns in National League. As always, that is a probability rather than a promise, and short priced outcomes still lose.
Model
Goals 2.7
BTTS 55%
O2.5 50%
Odds
Home 2.15
Draw 3.50
Away 2.88
BTTS 1.70
O2.5 1.85
More Boston United to win tips
· National League predictions
Carlisle
v
Forest Green
England · National League
Tue 15 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Both teams to score
· 64% model probability
· odds 1.50 · edge -2.7 pts
The model makes both teams to score its strongest angle here, at an estimated 64% likelihood. Carlisle arrive on a DWWLL run while Forest Green have gone WLWWW, which is what the underlying ratings are reacting to. No estimate settles a football match. The figure describes likelihood, nothing firmer.
Model
Goals 3.2
Corners 9.2 (4.8H · 4.4A)
Cards 4.9
BTTS 64%
O2.5 62%
Odds
Home 1.95
Draw 3.60
Away 3.30
BTTS 1.50
O2.5 1.53
More Both teams to score tips
· National League predictions
Harrogate Town
v
AFC Fylde
England · National League
Tue 15 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Both teams to score
· 66% model probability
· odds 1.50 · edge -0.7 pts
Of every market it prices for this fixture, the model is most drawn to both teams to score, which it rates at 66%. Harrogate Town arrive on a WWDWW run while AFC Fylde have gone WWLWL, which is what the underlying ratings are reacting to. No estimate settles a football match. The figure describes likelihood, nothing firmer.
Model
Goals 3.3
BTTS 66%
O2.5 64%
Odds
Home 1.95
Draw 3.80
Away 3.20
BTTS 1.50
O2.5 1.50
More Both teams to score tips
· National League predictions
Solihull Moors
v
Barrow
England · National League
Tue 15 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Both teams to score
· 61% model probability
· odds 1.62 · edge -0.7 pts
The standout number in the model's output is 61% for both teams to score. Solihull Moors arrive on a LLLLL run while Barrow have gone DDDLW, which is what the underlying ratings are reacting to. No estimate settles a football match. The figure describes likelihood, nothing firmer.
Model
Goals 3.0
BTTS 61%
O2.5 57%
Odds
Home 2.55
Draw 3.60
Away 2.38
BTTS 1.62
O2.5 1.70
More Both teams to score tips
· National League predictions
Southend
v
Tamworth
England · National League
Tue 15 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Southend to win
· 62% model probability
· odds 1.53 · edge -3.4 pts
Of every market it prices for this fixture, the model is most drawn to Southend to win, which it rates at 62%. Southend arrive on a WLWWD run while Tamworth have gone LLLDW, which is what the underlying ratings are reacting to. No estimate settles a football match. The figure describes likelihood, nothing firmer.
Model
Goals 3.4
BTTS 62%
O2.5 67%
Odds
Home 1.53
Draw 4.20
Away 4.75
BTTS 1.53
O2.5 1.44
More Southend to win tips
· National League predictions
Sutton Utd
v
Eastleigh
England · National League
Tue 15 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Sutton Utd to win
· 47% model probability
· odds 1.95 · edge -4.3 pts
The standout number in the model's output is 47% for Sutton Utd to win. Recent form reads LDLWD for Sutton Utd and LWLLL for Eastleigh, and the ratings behind those sequences drive the price. Treat the number as an estimate. It describes the balance of chances, not the result.
Model
Goals 2.7
BTTS 55%
O2.5 51%
Odds
Home 1.95
Draw 3.50
Away 3.30
BTTS 1.75
O2.5 1.85
More Sutton Utd to win tips
· National League predictions
Wealdstone
v
FC Halifax Town
England · National League
Tue 15 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Both teams to score
· 61% model probability
· odds 1.62 · edge -0.7 pts
The model makes both teams to score its strongest angle here, at an estimated 61% likelihood. Form lines of WLDLL and LLLWW tell part of the story; the model also weighs opposition quality and scoring patterns in National League. As always, that is a probability rather than a promise, and short priced outcomes still lose.
Model
Goals 3.0
BTTS 61%
O2.5 57%
Odds
Home 2.20
Draw 3.50
Away 2.88
BTTS 1.62
O2.5 1.67
More Both teams to score tips
· National League predictions
Worthing
v
AFC Hornchurch
England · National League
Tue 15 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Both teams to score
· 64% model probability
· odds 1.50 · edge -2.7 pts
This one comes down to both teams to score. The model puts it at 64%, its highest figure for the match. Form lines of DDLWL and LWLWL tell part of the story; the model also weighs opposition quality and scoring patterns in National League. As always, that is a probability rather than a promise, and short priced outcomes still lose.
Model
Goals 3.2
BTTS 64%
O2.5 62%
Odds
Home 2.10
Draw 3.70
Away 2.88
BTTS 1.50
O2.5 1.57
More Both teams to score tips
· National League predictions
Rayo Vallecano
v
Espanyol
Elche 
Real Madrid