Last updated 18 minutes ago
Every selection below comes from the model rather than a person. It prices each fixture across the fourteen leagues we track, and the strongest angle per match is shown with three numbers: the model's probability, the current odds, and the edge, which is the gap between the two expressed in percentage points. A positive edge means the model rates the outcome more likely than the price implies. That is the whole method, and its complete record, wins and losses alike, is on the results page. Probabilities are estimates, not promises, and a 70% chance still fails three times in ten.
Maccabi Tel Aviv to win · 50% model probability · odds 1.30 · edge -26.9 pts
This one comes down to Maccabi Tel Aviv to win. The model puts it at 50%, its highest figure for the match. Recent form reads LWWWW for Maccabi Tel Aviv and WWDDL for Sheriff Tiraspol, and the ratings behind those sequences drive the price. Treat the number as an estimate. It describes the balance of chances, not the result.
Both teams to score · 76% model probability · odds 1.57 · edge +12.3 pts
This one comes down to both teams to score. The model puts it at 76%, its highest figure for the match. Recent form reads WWWLD for FC Midtjylland and LDLDD for Beşiktaş, and the ratings behind those sequences drive the price. At odds of 1.57 the market implies roughly 64%, so the model sees a 12.3 point edge.
Over 1.5 goals · 86% model probability · odds 1.28 · edge +7.9 pts
The model makes over 1.5 goals its strongest angle here, at an estimated 86% likelihood. Recent form reads WWLWD for Pafos and LWWWD for HNK Hajduk Split, and the ratings behind those sequences drive the price. At odds of 1.28 the market implies roughly 78%, so the model sees a 7.9 point edge.
Hradec Králové to win · 60% model probability · odds 3.00 · edge +26.7 pts
Of every market it prices for this fixture, the model is most drawn to Hradec Králové to win, which it rates at 60%. Hradec Králové arrive on a WWWWW run while Tromso have gone WDLDW, which is what the underlying ratings are reacting to. The available 3.00 prices this at about 33%, which leaves 26.7 points between the market and the model.
Both teams to score · 72% model probability · odds 1.80 · edge +16.4 pts
The standout number in the model's output is 72% for both teams to score. Recent form reads LWWWD for PAOK and DWWWW for Dynamo Kyiv, and the ratings behind those sequences drive the price. The available 1.80 prices this at about 56%, which leaves 16.4 points between the market and the model.
Qarabag to win · 60% model probability · odds 2.70 · edge +23 pts
This one comes down to Qarabag to win. The model puts it at 60%, its highest figure for the match. CSKA Sofia arrive on a WWWLD run while Qarabag have gone WLWWD, which is what the underlying ratings are reacting to. At odds of 2.70 the market implies roughly 37%, so the model sees a 23.0 point edge.
Both teams to score · 84% model probability · odds 1.67 · edge +24.1 pts
The standout number in the model's output is 84% for both teams to score. Anderlecht arrive on a WDWDL run while Hammarby FF have gone DWWLL, which is what the underlying ratings are reacting to. The available 1.67 prices this at about 60%, which leaves 24.1 points between the market and the model.
Over 2.5 goals · 60% model probability · odds 1.67 · edge +0.1 pts
The model makes over 2.5 goals its strongest angle here, at an estimated 60% likelihood. Ferencvarosi TC arrive on a WWDWD run while Twente have gone WWLDW, which is what the underlying ratings are reacting to. At odds of 1.67 the market implies roughly 60%, so the model sees a 0.1 point edge.
Both teams to score · 72% model probability · odds 2.20 · edge +26.5 pts
The model makes both teams to score its strongest angle here, at an estimated 72% likelihood. Benfica arrive on a WWLDW run while FC ST. Gallen have gone LWWWW, which is what the underlying ratings are reacting to. At odds of 2.20 the market implies roughly 45%, so the model sees a 26.5 point edge.