The Model

Every prediction on this site comes from one statistical model. There is no panel of tipsters, no editorial override, and no quiet deletion of bad weeks. The model prices fixtures; the site publishes what it prices; the archive records how it went. This page is the map — the two pages below it are the detail and the proof.

What It Does

The model, built on the Betminer engine, rates every team in the leagues we cover from their recent results, weighting for the quality of opposition, home advantage and how each side actually scores and concedes. From those ratings it estimates goal expectancies for each fixture and converts them into probabilities for every market we publish — match result, both teams to score, over/under goals lines, and correct score. A fixture becomes a selection only when the model's probability beats the price implied by the bookmakers by a clear margin. Most fixtures never do, which is why some days are quieter than others. Call the game football or soccer — the model prices it identically either way.

How We Keep It Honest

Two mechanisms. First, every prediction is archived at kickoff into an append-only file whose entries are hash-chained — changing any past line would break the chain, so the record cannot be quietly rewritten. Second, every selection is settled against the odds that were available at publication, not a better price found later, and the full record — wins, losses and ROI — is published and downloadable as a CSV.

What It Cannot Do

The model does not know a team's dressing-room mood, a manager's contract dispute, or a striker's overnight injury. It sees results, goals and prices. Early in a season its ratings lean on the previous campaign until enough new matches accumulate, and newly promoted sides are the hardest to price. We publish these limits rather than pretend they don't exist — the method page covers them in full.