Football Steamers & Drifters Today
Last updated 56 minutes ago
A steamer is a price that has shortened significantly since the market opened — money is arriving on that outcome. A drifter is the opposite: a price lengthening as the market moves away from it. This page tracks the biggest moves of the day across our fourteen tracked leagues, in the match result and over/under 2.5 goals markets, and puts the model's own probability next to each one — so you can see whether the money and the maths agree. A move is information about opinion, not a verdict on the outcome.
Edge Movers
Selections steaming in and still carrying model edge at the current price — the market's own correction agreeing with the model. The strongest filter on this page; still an estimate, not a verdict.
| Fixture | Selection | Open | Now | Model | Fair | Edge | Kick-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche v Real Sociedad La Liga | Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 1.80 | 56% | 53% | +3.4 pts | 19:30 |
Fair is the market's own probability with the bookmaker's margin removed; edge is the model's probability minus that number, at the current (already shortened) price.
Steamers
Prices shortening — money arriving
| Fixture | Selection | Open | Now | Move | Implied | Model | Kick-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril v Arouca Primeira Liga | Arouca to win | 3.30 | 3.00 | -9.1% | 33% | 32% | 19:15 |
| Bromley v AFC Wimbledon League One | AFC Wimbledon to win | 3.20 | 2.90 | -9.4% | 34% | 31% | 19:00 |
| Cagliari v Lecce Serie A | Over 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 2.38 | -9.2% | 42% | 39% | 16:30 |
| Bromley v AFC Wimbledon League One | Draw | 3.40 | 3.20 | -5.9% | 31% | 29% | 19:00 |
| Cagliari v Lecce Serie A | Cagliari to win | 2.20 | 2.00 | -9.1% | 50% | 48% | 16:30 |
| Getafe v Celta Vigo La Liga | Getafe to win | 2.62 | 2.45 | -6.5% | 41% | 38% | 17:00 |
| Cagliari v Lecce Serie A | Both teams to score - Yes | 2.20 | 2.05 | -6.8% | 49% | 45% | 16:30 |
| Elche v Real Sociedad La Liga | Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 1.80 | -5.8% | 56% | 56% | 19:30 |
| Vitoria v Gremio Serie A | Draw | 3.30 | 3.20 | -3.0% | 31% | 29% | 23:00 |
| Udinese v Lazio Serie A | Lazio to win | 2.70 | 2.60 | -3.7% | 38% | 35% | 18:45 |
Drifters
Prices lengthening — market moving away
| Fixture | Selection | Open | Now | Move | Implied | Model | Kick-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari v Lecce Serie A | Lecce to win | 3.50 | 4.20 | +20.0% | 24% | 22% | 16:30 |
| Getafe v Celta Vigo La Liga | Celta Vigo to win | 3.00 | 3.40 | +13.3% | 29% | 27% | 17:00 |
| Bromley v AFC Wimbledon League One | Bromley to win | 2.05 | 2.38 | +16.1% | 42% | 40% | 19:00 |
| Cagliari v Lecce Serie A | Draw | 3.00 | 3.20 | +6.7% | 31% | 30% | 16:30 |
| Elche v Real Sociedad La Liga | Draw | 3.30 | 3.50 | +6.1% | 29% | 27% | 19:30 |
| Udinese v Lazio Serie A | Udinese to win | 2.70 | 2.90 | +7.4% | 34% | 34% | 18:45 |
| Getafe v Celta Vigo La Liga | Over 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 3.20 | +6.7% | 31% | 28% | 17:00 |
| Estoril v Arouca Primeira Liga | Estoril to win | 2.15 | 2.35 | +9.3% | 43% | 40% | 19:15 |
| Elche v Real Sociedad La Liga | Both teams to score - No | 2.05 | 2.20 | +7.3% | 45% | 40% | 19:30 |
| Elche v Real Sociedad La Liga | Elche to win | 2.75 | 2.90 | +5.5% | 34% | 31% | 19:30 |
| Vitoria v Gremio Serie A | Vitoria to win | 2.00 | 2.15 | +7.5% | 47% | 46% | 23:00 |
| Vitoria v Gremio Serie A | Both teams to score - No | 1.80 | 1.91 | +6.1% | 52% | 50% | 23:00 |
How to Read This Page
The implied column converts the current price into the probability the market is charging for (before the bookmaker's margin). The model column is our own estimate for the same outcome, produced before and independently of the move. When a steamer's model number sits above its implied number, the model still rated the outcome more likely than the price suggests even after the shortening. When it sits below, the model disagrees with the money — and the historical record says the money is not always right.
Prices are Bet365, captured when a fixture first enters the feed and re-captured approaching kick-off, so early-morning lists are short and fill through the day. A steamer is not a tip: our published selections come from the model alone and live on the predictions pages. The movement here is context — the market's opinion, measured.