Last updated 36 minutes ago
Strike rate 63.3% from 317 selections, ROI +2.2% to level stakes. Full record for this market.
Ipswich
v
Liverpool
Both teams to score · 66% model probability · odds 1.53 · edge +0.6 pts
Missing — Ipswich: Florentino (questionable), J. Taylor (missing fixture), A. Matusiwa (missing fixture) +1 more · Liverpool: J. Gomez (missing fixture), F. Chiesa (missing fixture), B. Barcola (missing fixture) +4 more
Sparta Rotterdam
v
PEC Zwolle
Both teams to score · 64% model probability · odds 1.44 · edge -5.4 pts
Missing — Sparta Rotterdam: Robin van Cruijsen (questionable) · PEC Zwolle: Y. Namli (missing fixture), J. Burger (missing fixture)
VfB Stuttgart
v
1. FC Köln
Both teams to score · 64% model probability · odds 1.44 · edge -5.4 pts
Missing — VfB Stuttgart: D. Zagadou (missing fixture), C. Führich (questionable), N. Nartey (missing fixture) +7 more · 1. FC Köln: L. Waldschmidt (missing fixture), Timo Hübers (missing fixture), T. Dallinga (questionable) +2 more
Real Betis
v
Real Madrid
Both teams to score · 62% model probability · odds 1.53 · edge -3.4 pts
Missing — Real Betis: Dani Ceballos (missing fixture), G. Lo Celso (missing fixture), Aitor Ruibal (missing fixture) +5 more · Real Madrid: Éder Militão (missing fixture), F. Mendy (missing fixture), A. Tchouaméni (missing fixture) +4 more
Paris Saint Germain
v
Monaco
Both teams to score · 59% model probability · odds 1.62 · edge -2.7 pts
Missing — Paris Saint Germain: L. Digne (missing fixture), Nuno Mendes (missing fixture), D. Doué (questionable) · Monaco: Takumi Minamino (missing fixture), Mohammed Salisu (missing fixture), Ansu Fati (missing fixture) +2 more
New York City FC
v
Nashville SC
Both teams to score · 58% model probability · odds 1.62 · edge -3.7 pts
Missing — New York City FC: H. Wolf (missing fixture), A. O'Neill (missing fixture), Thiago Martins (questionable) +7 more · Nashville SC: W. Madrigal (missing fixture), Chris Applewhite (questionable)
Altrincham
v
Eastleigh
Both teams to score · 57% model probability · odds 1.67 · edge -2.9 pts
BTTS is the market bookmakers advertise hardest, and that alone should make you careful. It stays alive for ninety minutes whatever the score, it suits the way most people watch football, and the margins built into its prices are often wider than on the match odds. None of that makes it a bad market. It makes it a market where the difference between a fair price and a poor one is larger than usual, and where a model earns its keep.
Our BTTS probability is not a guess about whether a game will be open. It is read directly off the scoreline grid: the model estimates goals for each side from attack and defence ratings, builds the probability of every final score, and sums every scoreline where neither team finishes nil. That construction matters, because both teams scoring depends on four things at once, both attacks and both defences, and shortcuts that look at only one side of the fixture consistently misprice it. A team that scores freely but wins 3-0 every week is a BTTS trap, not a BTTS pick.
Selections appear here when the model's yes probability clears our threshold, typically corresponding to fixtures where both sides score in well over half of the simulated outcomes. The strongest spots share a shape: two sides that create chances at a healthy rate, neither defence keeping regular clean sheets, and a match state unlikely to turn one-way early. Derbies and end-of-season fixtures with nothing at stake often qualify. Matches involving a deep-sitting away side that rarely scores on the road almost never do, however leaky the home defence looks.
Judge this page the way we judge ourselves, on the full settled BTTS record rather than a hot fortnight. Every selection settles against the odds that were available when it was published, wins and losses in the same table.
New to the market? The glossary covers what BTTS means and how it settles, own goals and all. BTTS also converses naturally with the goals lines: a fixture strong for both teams to score is often strong for over 2.5 goals too, and where the two markets disagree about a match is usually the most instructive number on the page.
They are selections for this market produced by a statistical model rather than a tipster. The model estimates a probability for every fixture it prices, and a selection appears here when that probability clears the market threshold. The market itself is explained in plain English in our glossary.
A model rates every team from recent results, converts those ratings into goal expectancies for each fixture, and turns the expectancies into probabilities for this market. Selections are archived at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Over its full recorded history this market has a 63.3% strike rate from 317 settled selections, at 2.2% ROI to level stakes. Every settled selection is published in the results archive, including the losing runs.