Last updated 25 minutes ago
Strike rate 10.7% from 610 selections, ROI +% to level stakes. Full record for this market.
Lyon
v
Auxerre
Correct score 2-0
Missing — Lyon: Keito Nakamura (missing fixture), J. Duranville (missing fixture), Alejandro Gomes Rodriguez (missing fixture) +5 more · Auxerre: A. Tuanzebe (missing fixture), A. Dioussé (missing fixture), F. Sierralta (missing fixture) +4 more
Sparta Rotterdam
v
PEC Zwolle
Correct score 1-1
Missing — Sparta Rotterdam: Robin van Cruijsen (questionable) · PEC Zwolle: Y. Namli (missing fixture), J. Burger (missing fixture)
VfB Stuttgart
v
1. FC Köln
Correct score 2-1
Missing — VfB Stuttgart: D. Zagadou (missing fixture), C. Führich (questionable), N. Nartey (missing fixture) +7 more · 1. FC Köln: L. Waldschmidt (missing fixture), Timo Hübers (missing fixture), T. Dallinga (questionable) +2 more
Genoa
v
Como
Correct score 1-1
Missing — Genoa: L. Venturino (missing fixture) · Como: M. Kean (questionable), J. Addai (missing fixture)
Altrincham
v
Eastleigh
Correct score 1-1
Ipswich
v
Liverpool
Correct score 1-2
Missing — Ipswich: Florentino (questionable), J. Taylor (missing fixture), A. Matusiwa (missing fixture) +1 more · Liverpool: J. Gomez (missing fixture), F. Chiesa (missing fixture), B. Barcola (missing fixture) +4 more
Real Betis
v
Real Madrid
Correct score 1-2
Missing — Real Betis: Dani Ceballos (missing fixture), G. Lo Celso (missing fixture), Aitor Ruibal (missing fixture) +5 more · Real Madrid: Éder Militão (missing fixture), F. Mendy (missing fixture), A. Tchouaméni (missing fixture) +4 more
Paris Saint Germain
v
Monaco
Correct score 2-0
Missing — Paris Saint Germain: L. Digne (missing fixture), Nuno Mendes (missing fixture), D. Doué (questionable) · Monaco: Takumi Minamino (missing fixture), Mohammed Salisu (missing fixture), Ansu Fati (missing fixture) +2 more
FC Porto
v
Moreirense
Correct score 2-0
New York City FC
v
Nashville SC
Correct score 1-1
Missing — New York City FC: H. Wolf (missing fixture), A. O'Neill (missing fixture), Thiago Martins (questionable) +7 more · Nashville SC: W. Madrigal (missing fixture), Chris Applewhite (questionable)
Predicting the exact final score is the hardest mainstream bet in football, and any site that pretends otherwise is selling you something. Our approach is to be honest about the difficulty and precise about the numbers. The model estimates how many goals each side should score, builds a probability for every plausible scoreline from those expectancies, and publishes the most likely one for each fixture. Even a strong pick usually carries a probability between 8% and 14%, which is exactly why the odds are long.
That honesty is also where the value lives. Because correct score prices are set across dozens of scorelines, bookmakers stretch their margins across the whole grid, and individual scorelines drift out of line more often than in two-way markets. When the model's probability for a scoreline beats the price's implied probability by a clear margin, the pick has positive expected value even though it will lose most weeks. Correct score betting rewards patience and level stakes, and punishes anyone chasing last week's near miss.
A few patterns worth knowing. Low-scoring lines such as 1-0 and 1-1 are the most common results in most leagues, but they are also the most heavily backed, so the price is rarely generous. Value appears more often at the edges: a 2-2 in a match where both attacks are underrated, a 0-2 where the away side's strength has not reached the market. Home wins by a single goal are the most frequent family of results in almost every division we track. And matches between mismatched sides produce a wider spread of scorelines than instinct suggests, which is why we also publish the model's full distribution in the correct score predictor.
If you are searching for a certainty, we publish none, because none exists. Sites offering fixed or assured correct scores are marketing to hope. What we publish instead is a probability for every scoreline, the odds available when the pick went live, and a settled record of how those picks have performed, losses included. The glossary explains how related markets settle, check the scoreline pages for 3-0, 2-2 and 0-2, and treat every number here as an estimate to weigh, not a promise to bank on.
Three scorelines get dedicated pages: 3-0, 2-2 and 0-2.
Historical frequency for 2-1 appears here once the current season's data is loaded. Try the correct score predictor.
Historical frequency for 1-0 appears here once the current season's data is loaded. Try the correct score predictor.
Historical frequency for 1-1 appears here once the current season's data is loaded. Try the correct score predictor.
Historical frequency for 2-0 appears here once the current season's data is loaded. Try the correct score predictor.
Historical frequency for 0-1 appears here once the current season's data is loaded. Try the correct score predictor.
Historical frequency for 1-2 appears here once the current season's data is loaded. Try the correct score predictor.
Historical frequency for 0-0 appears here once the current season's data is loaded. Try the correct score predictor.
They are selections for this market produced by a statistical model rather than a tipster. The model estimates a probability for every fixture it prices, and a selection appears here when that probability clears the market threshold. The market itself is explained in plain English in our glossary.
A model rates every team from recent results, converts those ratings into goal expectancies for each fixture, and turns the expectancies into probabilities for this market. Selections are archived at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Over its full recorded history this market has a 10.7% strike rate from 610 settled selections, at -% ROI to level stakes. Every settled selection is published in the results archive, including the losing runs.