Last updated 54 minutes ago
Strike rate 70.6% from 1787 selections, ROI -4.6% to level stakes. Full record for this market.
PSV Eindhoven
v
Willem II
PSV Eindhoven to win · 90% model probability · odds 1.08 · edge -2.6 pts
Missing — PSV Eindhoven: A. Pléa (missing fixture), S. Lammers (questionable), J. Schouten (missing fixture) +3 more · Willem II: J. Hoogma (missing fixture), J. Slory (missing fixture), Amine Lachkar (missing fixture)
Barcelona
v
Alaves
Barcelona to win · 87% model probability · odds 1.10 · edge -3.9 pts
Missing — Barcelona: Eric García (questionable), J. Koundé (questionable), Dani Olmo (missing fixture) +3 more · Alaves: F. Garcés (missing fixture), Mikel Rodríguez (missing fixture)
Feyenoord
v
Fortuna Sittard
Feyenoord to win · 82% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -3.5 pts
Missing — Feyenoord: R. Nelson (missing fixture), B. Nieuwkoop (missing fixture), J. St. Juste (missing fixture) +4 more · Fortuna Sittard: Iván Márquez (questionable), Ramazan Bayram (missing fixture)
FC Porto
v
Estoril
FC Porto to win · 82% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -3.5 pts
Middlesbrough
v
Charlton
Middlesbrough to win · 76% model probability · odds 1.25 · edge -4 pts
Missing — Middlesbrough: A. Jones (missing fixture), D. Strelec (questionable), R. Pukštas (questionable) · Charlton: N. Chalobah (questionable), M. Godden (questionable), C. Sichenje (missing fixture) +1 more
Boreham Wood
v
Hartlepool
Boreham Wood to win · 76% model probability · odds 1.25 · edge -4 pts
Stockport County
v
AFC Wimbledon
Stockport County to win · 74% model probability · odds 1.27 · edge -4.7 pts
Real Betis
v
Malaga
Real Betis to win · 72% model probability · odds 1.30 · edge -4.9 pts
Missing — Real Betis: Junior Firpo (missing fixture), C. Hernández (missing fixture), Iker Losada (missing fixture) +1 more · Malaga: Joaquín Muñoz (missing fixture), Pablo Martínez (missing fixture), Julen Lobete (missing fixture) +4 more
Bayern München
v
Borussia Dortmund
Bayern München to win · 72% model probability · odds 1.33 · edge -3.2 pts
Missing — Bayern München: M. Neuer (missing fixture), L. Díaz (missing fixture), J. Musiala (missing fixture) +1 more · Borussia Dortmund: E. Can (missing fixture), R. Bensebaïni (questionable), G. Konstantelias (missing fixture) +3 more
Columbus Crew
v
DC United
Columbus Crew to win · 68% model probability · odds 1.40 · edge -3.4 pts
Missing — Columbus Crew: E. Bailly (questionable), W. Abou Ali (missing fixture), André Gomes (questionable) +3 more · DC United: L. Munteanu (missing fixture), Gabriel Segal (questionable), T. Baribo (questionable) +1 more
New York City FC
v
CF Montreal
New York City FC to win · 65% model probability · odds 1.44 · edge -4.4 pts
Missing — New York City FC: M. Moralez (missing fixture), A. Martínez (questionable), K. Trewin (missing fixture) +2 more · CF Montreal: P. Owusu (questionable), B. Ceballos (missing fixture), J. Neal (questionable) +2 more
Los Angeles Galaxy
v
Austin
Los Angeles Galaxy to win · 64% model probability · odds 1.48 · edge -3.6 pts
Missing — Los Angeles Galaxy: M. Reus (questionable), Riqui Puig (missing fixture), H. Lozano (questionable) +3 more · Austin: J. Bell (questionable), Ervin Torres (questionable), Chris Applewhite (questionable)
Barrow
v
Eastleigh
Barrow to win · 63% model probability · odds 1.48 · edge -4.6 pts
Norwich
v
Watford
Norwich to win · 62% model probability · odds 1.50 · edge -4.7 pts
Missing — Norwich: P. Mattsson (questionable), Mirko Topić (questionable), M. Touré (missing fixture) +3 more · Watford: M. Antonio (missing fixture), K. Baah (missing fixture), S. Coulibaly (missing fixture) +2 more
Salford City
v
Exeter City
Salford City to win · 62% model probability · odds 1.53 · edge -3.4 pts
Rangers
v
Aberdeen
Rangers to win · 61% model probability
Aldershot Town
v
Gateshead
Aldershot Town to win · 61% model probability · odds 1.53 · edge -4.4 pts
Udinese
v
AS Roma
AS Roma to win · 61% model probability · odds 1.57 · edge -2.7 pts
Missing — Udinese: D. Alaba (missing fixture), O. Solet (questionable), V. Bayo (missing fixture) +3 more · AS Roma: M. Svilar (missing fixture), L. Pellegrini (missing fixture), P. Dybala (missing fixture) +2 more
Levante
v
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid to win · 60% model probability · odds 1.50 · edge -6.7 pts
Missing — Levante: Dela (questionable), E. Bardeli (missing fixture) · Atletico Madrid: Koke (missing fixture), Cristian Romero (questionable), Johnny Cardoso (missing fixture)
Wycombe
v
Burton Albion
Wycombe to win · 60% model probability · odds 1.57 · edge -3.7 pts
Home, draw or away. Every other football market is a derivative of this one, and it remains the hardest to beat, because it attracts the most money and therefore the sharpest prices. The margin a bookmaker builds into a Premier League 1X2 market is often under five percent, thinner than almost anything else on the coupon. Beating it takes more than opinion, which is where the model comes in and where reputations go wrong.
The model prices all three outcomes from team ratings built on results, scoring rates, opponent quality and home advantage measured league by league. A selection appears on this page when the model's probability for an outcome clears our threshold and stands meaningfully above what the odds imply. That second condition matters more than the first. A 65% favourite priced as a 72% favourite is a losing bet forever, while a 45% home side priced as a 38% one is the kind of unglamorous pick this page exists for.
Expect the selections to look unfashionable. Ratings have no memory of last season's table and no affection for big clubs, so a well-drilled promoted side at home can out-rate a famous name in poor form. The lower English divisions we track are particularly fertile, because thinner betting markets leave more pricing gaps than the heavily traded top flights. That is not a flaw in the approach; it is the approach.
Double chance variants (home or draw, away or draw) appear when the model's combined probability justifies the shorter price. They suit fixtures where the model is confident one side will not win rather than confident about the winner, a distinction the scoreline grid makes naturally.
The 1X2 record is published in full, settled against publication odds, and it is the only advertisement this page gets. If you want the mechanics, the method page explains how ratings become probabilities in plain English, and the draw page covers the outcome most bettors systematically avoid, usually to their cost, since draws are the most consistently mispriced result in football.
They are selections for this market produced by a statistical model rather than a tipster. The model estimates a probability for every fixture it prices, and a selection appears here when that probability clears the market threshold. The market itself is explained in plain English in our glossary.
A model rates every team from recent results, converts those ratings into goal expectancies for each fixture, and turns the expectancies into probabilities for this market. Selections are archived at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Over its full recorded history this market has a 70.6% strike rate from 1798 settled selections, at -4.6% ROI to level stakes. Every settled selection is published in the results archive, including the losing runs.
10 ranked correct score picks + the full model boards, every morning. Go Premium — from $1.49/wk 95 founder places left