Last updated 30 minutes ago
Strike rate 66.8% from 298 selections, ROI +4.4% to level stakes. Full record for this market.
VfB Stuttgart
v
1. FC Köln
Over 2.5 goals · 71% model probability · odds 1.36 · edge -2.5 pts
Missing — VfB Stuttgart: D. Zagadou (missing fixture), C. Führich (questionable), N. Nartey (missing fixture) +7 more · 1. FC Köln: L. Waldschmidt (missing fixture), Timo Hübers (missing fixture), T. Dallinga (questionable) +2 more
Paris Saint Germain
v
Monaco
Over 2.5 goals · 71% model probability · odds 1.36 · edge -2.5 pts
Missing — Paris Saint Germain: L. Digne (missing fixture), Nuno Mendes (missing fixture), D. Doué (questionable) · Monaco: Takumi Minamino (missing fixture), Mohammed Salisu (missing fixture), Ansu Fati (missing fixture) +2 more
Ipswich
v
Liverpool
Over 2.5 goals · 70% model probability · odds 1.36 · edge -3.5 pts ▼ Steaming 13.8%
Missing — Ipswich: Florentino (questionable), J. Taylor (missing fixture), A. Matusiwa (missing fixture) +1 more · Liverpool: J. Gomez (missing fixture), F. Chiesa (missing fixture), B. Barcola (missing fixture) +4 more
Real Betis
v
Real Madrid
Over 2.5 goals · 70% model probability · odds 1.36 · edge -3.5 pts
Missing — Real Betis: Dani Ceballos (missing fixture), G. Lo Celso (missing fixture), Aitor Ruibal (missing fixture) +5 more · Real Madrid: Éder Militão (missing fixture), F. Mendy (missing fixture), A. Tchouaméni (missing fixture) +4 more
Sparta Rotterdam
v
PEC Zwolle
Over 2.5 goals · 63% model probability · odds 1.50 · edge -3.7 pts
Missing — Sparta Rotterdam: Robin van Cruijsen (questionable) · PEC Zwolle: Y. Namli (missing fixture), J. Burger (missing fixture)
Lyon
v
Auxerre
Over 2.5 goals · 59% model probability · odds 1.62 · edge -2.7 pts
Missing — Lyon: Keito Nakamura (missing fixture), J. Duranville (missing fixture), Alejandro Gomes Rodriguez (missing fixture) +5 more · Auxerre: A. Tuanzebe (missing fixture), A. Dioussé (missing fixture), F. Sierralta (missing fixture) +4 more
FC Porto
v
Moreirense
Over 2.5 goals · 59% model probability · odds 1.60 · edge -3.5 pts
The model's probability for each goals line beside the current Bet365 price. Market is the price's implied probability with the margin removed; edge is model minus market for the over — negative means the model leans under. Reference numbers, not published selections.
Lyon
v
Auxerre
Model expects 3.0 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 95% | 1.03 | 15.00 | 94% | +1.4 pts |
| 1.5 | 80% | 1.20 | 4.50 | 79% | +1.2 pts |
| 2.5 | 58% | 1.62 | 2.30 | 59% | -1 pts |
| 3.5 | 35% | 2.62 | 1.50 | 36% | -1.1 pts |
| 4.5 | 19% | 4.50 | 1.20 | 21% | -2.6 pts |
| 5.5 | 8% | 9.00 | 1.07 | 11% | -2.2 pts |
| 6.5 | 3% | 19.00 | 1.02 | 5% | -1.7 pts |
| 7.5 | 1% | 34.00 | – | – | – |
Sparta Rotterdam
v
PEC Zwolle
Model expects 3.3 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 1.02 | 17.00 | 94% | +2 pts |
| 1.5 | 84% | 1.14 | 5.50 | 83% | +1.3 pts |
| 2.5 | 64% | 1.50 | 2.50 | 63% | +1.6 pts |
| 3.5 | 42% | 2.20 | 1.62 | 42% | -0.4 pts |
| 4.5 | 24% | 3.75 | 1.25 | 25% | -1.3 pts |
| 5.5 | 12% | 7.00 | 1.10 | 14% | -1.9 pts |
| 6.5 | 5% | 15.00 | 1.03 | 6% | -1.3 pts |
| 7.5 | 2% | 29.00 | 1.01 | 3% | -1.4 pts |
| 8.5 | 1% | 51.00 | – | – | – |
VfB Stuttgart
v
1. FC Köln
Model expects 3.7 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 1.01 | 21.00 | 95% | +2.1 pts |
| 1.5 | 88% | 1.10 | 7.00 | 86% | +2 pts |
| 2.5 | 72% | 1.36 | 3.20 | 70% | +1.3 pts |
| 3.5 | 51% | 1.91 | 1.91 | 50% | +0.6 pts |
| 4.5 | 31% | 3.00 | 1.40 | 32% | -0.5 pts |
| 5.5 | 17% | 5.00 | 1.17 | 19% | -2 pts |
| 6.5 | 8% | 10.00 | 1.06 | 10% | -1.4 pts |
| 7.5 | 4% | 19.00 | 1.02 | 5% | -1.6 pts |
| 8.5 | 1% | 34.00 | – | – | – |
Genoa
v
Como
Model expects 2.5 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 92% | 1.07 | 9.00 | 89% | +2.4 pts |
| 1.5 | 71% | 1.33 | 3.40 | 72% | -0.6 pts |
| 2.5 | 46% | 2.00 | 1.80 | 47% | -1.8 pts |
| 3.5 | 24% | 3.50 | 1.30 | 27% | -2.9 pts |
| 4.5 | 11% | 7.00 | 1.10 | 14% | -2.7 pts |
| 5.5 | 4% | 15.00 | 1.03 | 6% | -2.2 pts |
| 6.5 | 1% | 29.00 | 1.01 | 3% | -2 pts |
Altrincham
v
Eastleigh
Model expects 2.8 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% | 1.04 | 13.00 | 93% | +1.3 pts |
| 1.5 | 77% | 1.22 | 4.00 | 77% | +0.3 pts |
| 2.5 | 53% | 1.75 | 2.05 | 54% | -0.8 pts |
| 3.5 | 31% | 2.75 | 1.40 | 34% | -2.9 pts |
| 4.5 | 15% | 5.50 | 1.14 | 17% | -2 pts |
| 5.5 | 7% | 11.00 | 1.05 | 9% | -2.2 pts |
| 6.5 | 2% | 23.00 | 1.01 | 4% | -1.8 pts |
| 7.5 | 1% | 51.00 | – | – | – |
Ipswich
v
Liverpool
Model expects 3.6 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 1.01 | 21.00 | 95% | +1.9 pts |
| 1.5 | 87% | 1.10 | 7.00 | 86% | +1 pts |
| 2.5 | 70% | 1.36 | 3.20 | 70% | -0.5 pts |
| 3.5 | 49% | 1.91 | 1.91 | 50% | -1.5 pts |
| 4.5 | 29% | 3.00 | 1.40 | 32% | -2.4 pts |
| 5.5 | 16% | 5.00 | 1.17 | 19% | -3.4 pts |
| 6.5 | 7% | 10.00 | 1.06 | 10% | -2.3 pts |
| 7.5 | 3% | 19.00 | 1.02 | 5% | -2 pts |
| 8.5 | 1% | 34.00 | – | – | – |
Real Betis
v
Real Madrid
Model expects 3.6 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 1.01 | 26.00 | 96% | +1 pts |
| 1.5 | 87% | 1.11 | 6.50 | 85% | +2 pts |
| 2.5 | 70% | 1.36 | 3.20 | 70% | -0.5 pts |
| 3.5 | 49% | 1.91 | 1.91 | 50% | -1.5 pts |
| 4.5 | 29% | 3.20 | 1.36 | 30% | -0.4 pts |
| 5.5 | 16% | 5.50 | 1.14 | 17% | -1.6 pts |
| 6.5 | 7% | 10.00 | 1.06 | 10% | -2.3 pts |
| 7.5 | 3% | 19.00 | 1.02 | 5% | -2 pts |
| 8.5 | 1% | 34.00 | – | – | – |
Paris Saint Germain
v
Monaco
Model expects 3.7 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 1.01 | 23.00 | 96% | +1.7 pts |
| 1.5 | 88% | 1.10 | 7.00 | 86% | +2 pts |
| 2.5 | 72% | 1.36 | 3.20 | 70% | +1.3 pts |
| 3.5 | 51% | 1.91 | 1.91 | 50% | +0.6 pts |
| 4.5 | 31% | 3.00 | 1.40 | 32% | -0.5 pts |
| 5.5 | 17% | 5.00 | 1.17 | 19% | -2 pts |
| 6.5 | 8% | 10.00 | 1.06 | 10% | -1.4 pts |
| 7.5 | 4% | 19.00 | 1.02 | 5% | -1.6 pts |
| 8.5 | 1% | 34.00 | – | – | – |
Over 2.5 goals is the most traded goals line in football, which cuts both ways. Liquidity keeps the prices honest on big matches, but it also means the market's average expectation is already baked in: across the leagues we cover, roughly half of all matches produce three or more goals, and the standard price reflects exactly that. Backing overs profitably is therefore never about expecting an entertaining game. It is about finding fixtures where the true chance of three goals is higher than the price implies, and passing on everything else.
The model builds its over 2.5 probability from goal expectancies rather than vibes. Each side's attacking and defensive rating, adjusted for opponent and venue, produces an expected goals figure for the fixture; the probability of every scoreline follows from those figures, and the over 2.5 number is the sum of every scoreline with three goals or more. A selection appears on this page only when that number clears our publication threshold, so a blank day here means no fixture qualified, not that we forgot.
What tends to qualify? Matches pairing two capable attacks with two generous defences, obviously, but also less obvious shapes: a strong home side against a weak team that still commits players forward, or leagues where scoring runs structurally high. What rarely qualifies is the fixture casual money loves most, the top-of-the-table clash. Big matches are frequently tight, because the downside of losing outweighs the upside of winning well, and the model's numbers reflect that season after season.
Two practical notes. First, an early goal is the friend of every overs bet, since it forces the trailing side to open up; a goalless first twenty minutes is not fatal but it does erode the maths. Second, resist judging the market on three results. Goal totals swing violently over small samples, and the only fair test of these selections is the settled record for this market, which we publish in full with the odds available at publication.
If the term itself is new to you, the glossary explains exactly how over 2.5 goals settles, including the maths and a worked example. Related pages cover over 1.5 for shorter-priced accumulator legs and under 2.5 for the other side of the same line.
They are selections for this market produced by a statistical model rather than a tipster. The model estimates a probability for every fixture it prices, and a selection appears here when that probability clears the market threshold. The market itself is explained in plain English in our glossary.
A model rates every team from recent results, converts those ratings into goal expectancies for each fixture, and turns the expectancies into probabilities for this market. Selections are archived at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Over its full recorded history this market has a 66.8% strike rate from 298 settled selections, at 4.4% ROI to level stakes. Every settled selection is published in the results archive, including the losing runs.