Ajax
v
Willem II
Over 1.5 goals · 92% model probability · odds 1.05 · edge -3.2 pts
Over 1.5 Goals Tips
Last updated 37 minutes ago
Last 90 Days
Strike rate 79.6% from 907 selections, ROI -2.8% to level stakes. Full record for this market.
Today's Selections
Elche
v
Real Madrid
Over 1.5 goals · 91% model probability · odds 1.08 · edge -1.6 pts
Missing — Elche: Yago Alonso (missing fixture) · Real Madrid: Éder Militão (missing fixture), F. Mendy (missing fixture), Rodrygo (missing fixture)
Southend
v
Tamworth
Over 1.5 goals · 88% model probability · odds 1.11 · edge -2.1 pts
Harrogate Town
v
AFC Fylde
Over 1.5 goals · 86% model probability · odds 1.14 · edge -1.7 pts
Hibernian
v
Kilmarnock
Over 1.5 goals · 85% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -0.5 pts
Middlesbrough
v
Millwall
Over 1.5 goals · 84% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -1.5 pts
Missing — Millwall: C. De Norre (missing fixture), Massimo Luongo (questionable), A. Doughty (missing fixture) +7 more
Carlisle
v
Forest Green
Over 1.5 goals · 84% model probability · odds 1.14 · edge -3.7 pts
Worthing
v
AFC Hornchurch
Over 1.5 goals · 84% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -1.5 pts
Solihull Moors
v
Barrow
Over 1.5 goals · 81% model probability · odds 1.22 · edge -1 pts
Wealdstone
v
FC Halifax Town
Over 1.5 goals · 81% model probability · odds 1.20 · edge -2.3 pts
Falkirk
v
Heart Of Midlothian
Over 1.5 goals · 80% model probability · odds 1.22 · edge -2 pts
Motherwell
v
Aberdeen
Over 1.5 goals · 79% model probability · odds 1.22 · edge -3 pts
Aldershot Town
v
Yeovil Town
Over 1.5 goals · 78% model probability · odds 1.25 · edge -2 pts
Boston United
v
Woking
Over 1.5 goals · 77% model probability · odds 1.25 · edge -3 pts
Rayo Vallecano
v
Espanyol
Over 1.5 goals · 76% model probability · odds 1.28 · edge -2.1 pts
Sutton Utd
v
Eastleigh
Over 1.5 goals · 76% model probability · odds 1.28 · edge -2.1 pts
Bristol City
v
Lincoln
Over 1.5 goals · 74% model probability · odds 1.33 · edge -1.2 pts
Missing — Bristol City: Luke McNally (missing fixture) · Lincoln: T. Hamer (questionable), T. Darikwa (missing fixture), M. Melia (missing fixture)
Alaves
v
Valencia
Over 1.5 goals · 72% model probability · odds 1.33 · edge -3.2 pts
Over 1.5 goals: the short price that still needs discipline
Over 1.5 goals lands in roughly three quarters of matches across the leagues we track, and the odds say so: prices between 1.15 and 1.45 are the norm. That makes this the market people treat most casually, and the one where casual treatment costs the most. At 1.25 you are laying four to win one. A bet that "always wins" until it loses twice in an afternoon needs a genuine edge behind it, not a shrug.
The model publishes an over 1.5 selection only when its probability clears a deliberately high bar, currently the highest threshold of any goals market on the site. The probability comes from the same machinery as everything else here: expected goals for each side, a full scoreline distribution, and the sum of every scoreline with two or more goals. At these heights the interesting question is not whether the number is big but whether it is bigger than the price implies. A 90% chance at odds of 1.20 is a value bet; the same chance at 1.08 is a slow leak.
Where this market earns its place is accumulators. Short-priced legs multiply gently, and five well-chosen over 1.5 legs at around 1.30 each build combined odds near 3.7 while keeping each leg's failure rate low. That is precisely what the acca generator does when you leave its default market selected, and it is a more disciplined way to use this line than staking heavily on singles at 1.20.
The failure cases are worth knowing because they cluster. Matches between two cautious sides in relegation trouble, fixtures in leagues with structurally low scoring, and games played in foul weather all produce 1-0 and 0-0 more often than their season averages suggest. The model's opponent-adjusted ratings catch most of this, which is why some heavily fancied fixtures never appear here.
As always, the claim we make for this page is its settled record, published with the odds available at publication. For the mechanics of goals lines, including why the half goal exists and how whole lines push, the glossary's entries on over 2.5 goals and under 2.5 goals cover the family.
Recent Results for This Market
- PSV Eindhoven v Sparta Rotterdam — over @ 1.04: won (4-1)
- Stade Brestois 29 v Paris Saint Germain — over @ 1.1: lost (0-1)
- Sassuolo v Juventus — over @ 1.25: won (3-2)
- Mirassol v Vitoria — over @ 1.25: won (2-2)
- Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid — over @ 1.17: won (0-3)
- Famalicao v Sporting CP — over @ 1.22: won (1-1)
- Flamengo v Corinthians — over @ 1.22: won (2-1)
- v — over @ 1.14: won (1-2)
- v — over @ 1.11: won (1-2)
- San Diego v Philadelphia Union — over @ 1.12: won (0-5)
Frequently Asked Questions
What are over 1.5 goals tips?
They are selections for this market produced by a statistical model rather than a tipster. The model estimates a probability for every fixture it prices, and a selection appears here when that probability clears the market threshold. The market itself is explained in plain English in our glossary.
How are these tips generated?
A model rates every team from recent results, converts those ratings into goal expectancies for each fixture, and turns the expectancies into probabilities for this market. Selections are archived at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
How has this market performed?
Over its full recorded history this market has a 79.6% strike rate from 907 settled selections, at -2.8% ROI to level stakes. Every settled selection is published in the results archive, including the losing runs.