Last updated 23 minutes ago
Strike rate 79.3% from 598 selections, ROI -2.5% to level stakes. Full record for this market.
VfB Stuttgart
v
1. FC Köln
Over 1.5 goals · 90% model probability · odds 1.10 · edge -0.9 pts
Missing — VfB Stuttgart: D. Zagadou (missing fixture), C. Führich (questionable), N. Nartey (missing fixture) +7 more · 1. FC Köln: L. Waldschmidt (missing fixture), Timo Hübers (missing fixture), T. Dallinga (questionable) +2 more
Paris Saint Germain
v
Monaco
Over 1.5 goals · 89% model probability · odds 1.10 · edge -1.9 pts
Missing — Paris Saint Germain: L. Digne (missing fixture), Nuno Mendes (missing fixture), D. Doué (questionable) · Monaco: Takumi Minamino (missing fixture), Mohammed Salisu (missing fixture), Ansu Fati (missing fixture) +2 more
Real Betis
v
Real Madrid
Over 1.5 goals · 88% model probability · odds 1.11 · edge -2.1 pts
Missing — Real Betis: Dani Ceballos (missing fixture), G. Lo Celso (missing fixture), Aitor Ruibal (missing fixture) +5 more · Real Madrid: Éder Militão (missing fixture), F. Mendy (missing fixture), A. Tchouaméni (missing fixture) +4 more
Ipswich
v
Liverpool
Over 1.5 goals · 86% model probability · odds 1.12 · edge -3.3 pts
Missing — Ipswich: Florentino (questionable), J. Taylor (missing fixture), A. Matusiwa (missing fixture) +1 more · Liverpool: J. Gomez (missing fixture), F. Chiesa (missing fixture), B. Barcola (missing fixture) +4 more
Lyon
v
Auxerre
Over 1.5 goals · 84% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -1.5 pts
Missing — Lyon: Keito Nakamura (missing fixture), J. Duranville (missing fixture), Alejandro Gomes Rodriguez (missing fixture) +5 more · Auxerre: A. Tuanzebe (missing fixture), A. Dioussé (missing fixture), F. Sierralta (missing fixture) +4 more
Sparta Rotterdam
v
PEC Zwolle
Over 1.5 goals · 84% model probability · odds 1.14 · edge -3.7 pts
Missing — Sparta Rotterdam: Robin van Cruijsen (questionable) · PEC Zwolle: Y. Namli (missing fixture), J. Burger (missing fixture)
FC Porto
v
Moreirense
Over 1.5 goals · 81% model probability · odds 1.18 · edge -3.7 pts
Altrincham
v
Eastleigh
Over 1.5 goals · 78% model probability · odds 1.22 · edge -4 pts
New York City FC
v
Nashville SC
Over 1.5 goals · 78% model probability · odds 1.22 · edge -4 pts
Missing — New York City FC: H. Wolf (missing fixture), A. O'Neill (missing fixture), Thiago Martins (questionable) +7 more · Nashville SC: W. Madrigal (missing fixture), Chris Applewhite (questionable)
Genoa
v
Como
Over 1.5 goals · 73% model probability · odds 1.33 · edge -2.2 pts
Missing — Genoa: L. Venturino (missing fixture) · Como: M. Kean (questionable), J. Addai (missing fixture)
The model's probability for each goals line beside the current Bet365 price. Market is the price's implied probability with the margin removed; edge is model minus market for the over — negative means the model leans under. Reference numbers, not published selections.
Sparta Rotterdam
v
PEC Zwolle
Model expects 3.2 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 1.02 | 17.00 | 94% | +1.6 pts |
| 1.5 | 83% | 1.14 | 5.50 | 83% | +0.1 pts |
| 2.5 | 62% | 1.53 | 2.40 | 61% | +0.9 pts |
| 3.5 | 40% | 2.25 | 1.57 | 41% | -1.4 pts |
| 4.5 | 22% | 4.00 | 1.22 | 23% | -1.5 pts |
| 5.5 | 11% | 8.00 | 1.08 | 12% | -1.4 pts |
| 6.5 | 5% | 17.00 | 1.02 | 6% | -1.2 pts |
| 7.5 | 2% | 29.00 | 1.01 | 3% | -1.7 pts |
| 8.5 | 1% | 51.00 | – | – | – |
VfB Stuttgart
v
1. FC Köln
Model expects 3.8 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 1.01 | 23.00 | 96% | +2 pts |
| 1.5 | 89% | 1.10 | 7.00 | 86% | +2.9 pts |
| 2.5 | 73% | 1.33 | 3.40 | 72% | +1.2 pts |
| 3.5 | 53% | 1.91 | 1.91 | 50% | +2.7 pts |
| 4.5 | 33% | 3.00 | 1.40 | 32% | +1.4 pts |
| 5.5 | 18% | 5.00 | 1.17 | 19% | -0.6 pts |
| 6.5 | 9% | 10.00 | 1.06 | 10% | -0.5 pts |
| 7.5 | 4% | 19.00 | 1.02 | 5% | -1.1 pts |
| 8.5 | 2% | 29.00 | 1.01 | 3% | -1.8 pts |
Genoa
v
Como
Model expects 2.5 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 92% | 1.07 | 9.00 | 89% | +2.4 pts |
| 1.5 | 71% | 1.33 | 3.40 | 72% | -0.6 pts |
| 2.5 | 46% | 2.00 | 1.80 | 47% | -1.8 pts |
| 3.5 | 24% | 3.50 | 1.30 | 27% | -2.9 pts |
| 4.5 | 11% | 7.00 | 1.10 | 14% | -2.7 pts |
| 5.5 | 4% | 15.00 | 1.03 | 6% | -2.2 pts |
| 6.5 | 1% | 29.00 | 1.01 | 3% | -2 pts |
Altrincham
v
Eastleigh
Model expects 2.8 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% | 1.04 | 13.00 | 93% | +1.3 pts |
| 1.5 | 77% | 1.22 | 4.00 | 77% | +0.3 pts |
| 2.5 | 53% | 1.75 | 2.05 | 54% | -0.8 pts |
| 3.5 | 31% | 2.75 | 1.40 | 34% | -2.9 pts |
| 4.5 | 15% | 5.50 | 1.14 | 17% | -2 pts |
| 5.5 | 7% | 11.00 | 1.05 | 9% | -2.2 pts |
| 6.5 | 2% | 23.00 | 1.01 | 4% | -1.8 pts |
| 7.5 | 1% | 51.00 | – | – | – |
Ipswich
v
Liverpool
Model expects 3.4 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 1.02 | 19.00 | 95% | +1.8 pts |
| 1.5 | 85% | 1.12 | 6.00 | 84% | +1 pts |
| 2.5 | 66% | 1.44 | 2.75 | 66% | +0.4 pts |
| 3.5 | 44% | 2.10 | 1.73 | 45% | -1 pts |
| 4.5 | 26% | 3.50 | 1.30 | 27% | -1.5 pts |
| 5.5 | 13% | 6.00 | 1.12 | 16% | -2.8 pts |
| 6.5 | 6% | 11.00 | 1.05 | 9% | -2.9 pts |
| 7.5 | 2% | 23.00 | 1.01 | 4% | -1.9 pts |
| 8.5 | 1% | 41.00 | – | – | – |
Real Betis
v
Real Madrid
Model expects 3.6 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 1.01 | 23.00 | 96% | +1.5 pts |
| 1.5 | 87% | 1.11 | 6.50 | 85% | +2 pts |
| 2.5 | 70% | 1.36 | 3.20 | 70% | -0.5 pts |
| 3.5 | 49% | 1.91 | 1.91 | 50% | -1.5 pts |
| 4.5 | 29% | 3.20 | 1.36 | 30% | -0.4 pts |
| 5.5 | 16% | 5.50 | 1.14 | 17% | -1.6 pts |
| 6.5 | 7% | 10.00 | 1.06 | 10% | -2.3 pts |
| 7.5 | 3% | 19.00 | 1.02 | 5% | -2 pts |
| 8.5 | 1% | 34.00 | – | – | – |
Paris Saint Germain
v
Monaco
Model expects 3.7 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 1.01 | 23.00 | 96% | +1.7 pts |
| 1.5 | 88% | 1.10 | 7.00 | 86% | +2 pts |
| 2.5 | 72% | 1.36 | 3.20 | 70% | +1.3 pts |
| 3.5 | 51% | 1.91 | 1.91 | 50% | +0.6 pts |
| 4.5 | 31% | 3.00 | 1.40 | 32% | -0.5 pts |
| 5.5 | 17% | 5.00 | 1.17 | 19% | -2 pts |
| 6.5 | 8% | 10.00 | 1.06 | 10% | -1.4 pts |
| 7.5 | 4% | 19.00 | 1.02 | 5% | -1.6 pts |
| 8.5 | 1% | 34.00 | – | – | – |
FC Porto
v
Moreirense
Model expects 3.0 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 95% | 1.03 | 15.00 | 94% | +1.4 pts |
| 1.5 | 80% | 1.18 | 4.50 | 79% | +0.9 pts |
| 2.5 | 58% | 1.60 | 2.30 | 59% | -1.3 pts |
| 3.5 | 35% | 2.50 | 1.50 | 38% | -2.2 pts |
| 4.5 | 19% | 4.33 | 1.20 | 22% | -3.2 pts |
| 5.5 | 8% | 9.00 | 1.07 | 11% | -2.2 pts |
| 6.5 | 3% | 19.00 | 1.02 | 5% | -1.7 pts |
| 7.5 | 1% | 34.00 | – | – | – |
Over 1.5 goals lands in roughly three quarters of matches across the leagues we track, and the odds say so: prices between 1.15 and 1.45 are the norm. That makes this the market people treat most casually, and the one where casual treatment costs the most. At 1.25 you are laying four to win one. A bet that "always wins" until it loses twice in an afternoon needs a genuine edge behind it, not a shrug.
The model publishes an over 1.5 selection only when its probability clears a deliberately high bar, currently the highest threshold of any goals market on the site. The probability comes from the same machinery as everything else here: expected goals for each side, a full scoreline distribution, and the sum of every scoreline with two or more goals. At these heights the interesting question is not whether the number is big but whether it is bigger than the price implies. A 90% chance at odds of 1.20 is a value bet; the same chance at 1.08 is a slow leak.
Where this market earns its place is accumulators. Short-priced legs multiply gently, and five well-chosen over 1.5 legs at around 1.30 each build combined odds near 3.7 while keeping each leg's failure rate low. That is precisely what the acca generator does when you leave its default market selected, and it is a more disciplined way to use this line than staking heavily on singles at 1.20.
The failure cases are worth knowing because they cluster. Matches between two cautious sides in relegation trouble, fixtures in leagues with structurally low scoring, and games played in foul weather all produce 1-0 and 0-0 more often than their season averages suggest. The model's opponent-adjusted ratings catch most of this, which is why some heavily fancied fixtures never appear here.
As always, the claim we make for this page is its settled record, published with the odds available at publication. For the mechanics of goals lines, including why the half goal exists and how whole lines push, the glossary's entries on over 2.5 goals and under 2.5 goals cover the family.
They are selections for this market produced by a statistical model rather than a tipster. The model estimates a probability for every fixture it prices, and a selection appears here when that probability clears the market threshold. The market itself is explained in plain English in our glossary.
A model rates every team from recent results, converts those ratings into goal expectancies for each fixture, and turns the expectancies into probabilities for this market. Selections are archived at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Over its full recorded history this market has a 79.3% strike rate from 598 settled selections, at -2.5% ROI to level stakes. Every settled selection is published in the results archive, including the losing runs.