Last updated 58 minutes ago
Strike rate 79.3% from 1771 selections, ROI -4.2% to level stakes. Full record for this market.
PSV Eindhoven
v
Willem II
Over 1.5 goals · 95% model probability · odds 1.03 · edge -2.1 pts
Missing — PSV Eindhoven: A. Pléa (missing fixture), S. Lammers (questionable), J. Schouten (missing fixture) +3 more · Willem II: J. Hoogma (missing fixture), J. Slory (missing fixture), Amine Lachkar (missing fixture)
Feyenoord
v
Fortuna Sittard
Over 1.5 goals · 92% model probability · odds 1.07 · edge -1.5 pts
Missing — Feyenoord: R. Nelson (missing fixture), B. Nieuwkoop (missing fixture), J. St. Juste (missing fixture) +4 more · Fortuna Sittard: Iván Márquez (questionable), Ramazan Bayram (missing fixture)
Charlotte
v
Orlando City SC
Over 1.5 goals · 92% model probability · odds 1.06 · edge -2.3 pts
Missing — Charlotte: T. Ream (questionable), A. Saint-Maximin (questionable), B. Bronico (questionable) +4 more · Orlando City SC: G. Dorsey (questionable), R. Jansson (missing fixture), D. Brekalo (missing fixture) +1 more
Barcelona
v
Alaves
Over 1.5 goals · 92% model probability · odds 1.06 · edge -2.3 pts
Missing — Barcelona: Eric García (questionable), J. Koundé (questionable), Dani Olmo (missing fixture) +3 more · Alaves: F. Garcés (missing fixture), Mikel Rodríguez (missing fixture)
Bayer Leverkusen
v
VfB Stuttgart
Over 1.5 goals · 91% model probability · odds 1.08 · edge -1.6 pts
Missing — Bayer Leverkusen: M. Diaby (missing fixture), M. Terrier (missing fixture), G. Doué (missing fixture) +4 more · VfB Stuttgart: D. Zagadou (missing fixture), J. Vagnoman (missing fixture), A. Stiller (missing fixture) +3 more
Bayern München
v
Borussia Dortmund
Over 1.5 goals · 91% model probability · odds 1.08 · edge -1.6 pts
Missing — Bayern München: M. Neuer (missing fixture), L. Díaz (missing fixture), J. Musiala (missing fixture) +1 more · Borussia Dortmund: E. Can (missing fixture), R. Bensebaïni (questionable), G. Konstantelias (missing fixture) +3 more
Heerenveen
v
NEC Nijmegen
Over 1.5 goals · 89% model probability · odds 1.10 · edge -1.9 pts
Missing — Heerenveen: L. Smans (questionable) · NEC Nijmegen: D. Tadić (missing fixture), P. Sandler (missing fixture), D. Geiger (missing fixture) +3 more
Werder Bremen
v
1899 Hoffenheim
Over 1.5 goals · 88% model probability · odds 1.11 · edge -2.1 pts
Missing — Werder Bremen: N. Stark (missing fixture), O. Deman (questionable), J. Stage (missing fixture) +7 more · 1899 Hoffenheim: A. Prass (missing fixture), Bernardo (questionable), P. Wimmer (missing fixture) +4 more
Manchester City
v
Brighton
Over 1.5 goals · 88% model probability · odds 1.11 · edge -2.1 pts
Missing — Manchester City: A. Semenyo (missing fixture), Matheus Nunes (questionable) · Brighton: F. Kadıoğlu (questionable), P. Struijk (missing fixture), K. Mitoma (missing fixture) +5 more
Boreham Wood
v
Hartlepool
Over 1.5 goals · 88% model probability · odds 1.11 · edge -2.1 pts
Ajax
v
AZ Alkmaar
Over 1.5 goals · 88% model probability · odds 1.11 · edge -2.1 pts
Missing — Ajax: K. Dolberg (missing fixture), Caio Henrique (missing fixture), S. Berghuis (questionable) +3 more · AZ Alkmaar: J. Zoet (missing fixture), J. Hornkamp (missing fixture), S. Resink (missing fixture) +3 more
Middlesbrough
v
Charlton
Over 1.5 goals · 87% model probability · odds 1.11 · edge -3.1 pts
Missing — Middlesbrough: A. Jones (missing fixture), D. Strelec (questionable), R. Pukštas (questionable) · Charlton: N. Chalobah (questionable), M. Godden (questionable), C. Sichenje (missing fixture) +1 more
Wealdstone
v
Southend
Over 1.5 goals · 87% model probability · odds 1.12 · edge -2.3 pts
FC Cincinnati
v
Philadelphia Union
Over 1.5 goals · 87% model probability · odds 1.12 · edge -2.3 pts
Missing — FC Cincinnati: T. Malacia (questionable), M. Robinson (missing fixture), P. Bucha (questionable) +2 more · Philadelphia Union: J. Bueno (missing fixture), M. Iloski (missing fixture), D. Jean-Jacques (missing fixture) +1 more
St. Louis City
v
San Diego
Over 1.5 goals · 87% model probability · odds 1.10 · edge -3.9 pts
Missing — St. Louis City: R. Bürki (missing fixture), A. Mățan (missing fixture), Célio Pompeu (missing fixture) · San Diego: E. Achouri (missing fixture)
Cambuur
v
GO Ahead Eagles
Over 1.5 goals · 87% model probability · odds 1.12 · edge -2.3 pts
Missing — Cambuur: J. Amofa (missing fixture), B. van Duijl (questionable), W. Asselman (missing fixture) +1 more · GO Ahead Eagles: Pim Saathof (missing fixture)
Los Angeles Galaxy
v
Austin
Over 1.5 goals · 87% model probability · odds 1.11 · edge -3.1 pts
Missing — Los Angeles Galaxy: M. Reus (questionable), Riqui Puig (missing fixture), H. Lozano (questionable) +3 more · Austin: J. Bell (questionable), Ervin Torres (questionable), Chris Applewhite (questionable)
FC Augsburg
v
SC Freiburg
Over 1.5 goals · 86% model probability · odds 1.14 · edge -1.7 pts
Missing — FC Augsburg: S. Mounié (missing fixture), A. Claude-Maurice (questionable), C. Brackelmann (missing fixture) +2 more · SC Freiburg: P. Treu (questionable), J. Makengo (questionable), D. Scherhant (questionable) +1 more
FC Schalke 04
v
RB Leipzig
Over 1.5 goals · 86% model probability · odds 1.12 · edge -3.3 pts
Missing — FC Schalke 04: M. Sylla (missing fixture), M. Wöber (missing fixture), J. Bachmann (missing fixture) +5 more · RB Leipzig: C. Nkunku (questionable), M. Estève (missing fixture), A. Ouédraogo (missing fixture) +1 more
Stockport County
v
AFC Wimbledon
Over 1.5 goals · 86% model probability · odds 1.12 · edge -3.3 pts
Columbus Crew
v
DC United
Over 1.5 goals · 86% model probability · odds 1.12 · edge -3.3 pts
Missing — Columbus Crew: E. Bailly (questionable), W. Abou Ali (missing fixture), André Gomes (questionable) +3 more · DC United: L. Munteanu (missing fixture), Gabriel Segal (questionable), T. Baribo (questionable) +1 more
Borussia Mönchengladbach
v
SC Paderborn 07
Over 1.5 goals · 85% model probability · odds 1.14 · edge -2.7 pts
Missing — Borussia Mönchengladbach: F. Honorat (missing fixture), T. Kleindienst (missing fixture), K. Diks (missing fixture) +5 more · SC Paderborn 07: S. Michel (questionable), S. Klaas (missing fixture), O. Batista Meier (missing fixture) +4 more
Rangers
v
Aberdeen
Over 1.5 goals · 85% model probability
Wolves
v
Cardiff
Over 1.5 goals · 85% model probability · odds 1.14 · edge -2.7 pts
Missing — Wolves: B. Traoré (questionable), R. Jiménez (missing fixture), G. Konan (missing fixture) +4 more · Cardiff: C. Chambers (missing fixture), C. Robinson (questionable), K. Bielik (questionable) +3 more
Peterborough
v
Luton
Over 1.5 goals · 85% model probability · odds 1.14 · edge -2.7 pts
Tamworth
v
Woking
Over 1.5 goals · 85% model probability · odds 1.14 · edge -2.7 pts
Real Betis
v
Malaga
Over 1.5 goals · 85% model probability · odds 1.14 · edge -2.7 pts
Missing — Real Betis: Junior Firpo (missing fixture), C. Hernández (missing fixture), Iker Losada (missing fixture) +1 more · Malaga: Joaquín Muñoz (missing fixture), Pablo Martínez (missing fixture), Julen Lobete (missing fixture) +4 more
Boston United
v
Scunthorpe
Over 1.5 goals · 85% model probability · odds 1.12 · edge -4.3 pts
Sporting Kansas City
v
FC Dallas
Over 1.5 goals · 85% model probability · odds 1.14 · edge -2.7 pts
Missing — Sporting Kansas City: Z. Bassong (questionable), L. Johnsen (questionable), O. Blorian (missing fixture) +4 more · FC Dallas: S. Moore (missing fixture), Geovane (questionable), N. Norris (missing fixture) +1 more
San Jose Earthquakes
v
Real Salt Lake
Over 1.5 goals · 85% model probability · odds 1.14 · edge -2.7 pts
Missing — San Jose Earthquakes: T. Werner (missing fixture), J. Gónzalez (questionable), D. Jones (missing fixture) +2 more · Real Salt Lake: L. Engel (questionable), M. Guilavogui (missing fixture), D. Luna (missing fixture) +3 more
Plymouth
v
Reading
Over 1.5 goals · 84% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -1.5 pts
Levante
v
Atletico Madrid
Over 1.5 goals · 84% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -1.5 pts
Missing — Levante: Dela (questionable), E. Bardeli (missing fixture) · Atletico Madrid: Koke (missing fixture), Cristian Romero (questionable), Johnny Cardoso (missing fixture)
Barnsley
v
Oxford United
Over 1.5 goals · 84% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -1.5 pts
Norwich
v
Watford
Over 1.5 goals · 83% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -2.5 pts
Missing — Norwich: P. Mattsson (questionable), Mirko Topić (questionable), M. Touré (missing fixture) +3 more · Watford: M. Antonio (missing fixture), K. Baah (missing fixture), S. Coulibaly (missing fixture) +2 more
Grimsby
v
York
Over 1.5 goals · 83% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -2.5 pts
Crewe
v
Barnet
Over 1.5 goals · 83% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -2.5 pts
Oldham
v
Crawley Town
Over 1.5 goals · 83% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -2.5 pts
Aldershot Town
v
Gateshead
Over 1.5 goals · 83% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -2.5 pts
Worthing
v
Sutton Utd
Over 1.5 goals · 83% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -2.5 pts
Udinese
v
AS Roma
Over 1.5 goals · 83% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -2.5 pts
Missing — Udinese: D. Alaba (missing fixture), O. Solet (questionable), V. Bayo (missing fixture) +3 more · AS Roma: M. Svilar (missing fixture), L. Pellegrini (missing fixture), P. Dybala (missing fixture) +2 more
New York City FC
v
CF Montreal
Over 1.5 goals · 83% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -2.5 pts
Missing — New York City FC: M. Moralez (missing fixture), A. Martínez (questionable), K. Trewin (missing fixture) +2 more · CF Montreal: P. Owusu (questionable), B. Ceballos (missing fixture), J. Neal (questionable) +2 more
Chelsea
v
Manchester United
Over 1.5 goals · 82% model probability · odds 1.20 · edge -1.3 pts
Missing — Chelsea: João Pedro (missing fixture), R. James (missing fixture), E. Martínez (missing fixture) +6 more · Manchester United: L. Shaw (missing fixture), M. Rashford (questionable), Bruno Fernandes (questionable) +4 more
FC Halifax Town
v
Yeovil Town
Over 1.5 goals · 82% model probability · odds 1.20 · edge -1.3 pts
Forest Green
v
Harrogate Town
Over 1.5 goals · 82% model probability · odds 1.18 · edge -2.7 pts
Dundee Utd
v
Heart Of Midlothian
Over 1.5 goals · 82% model probability
Southampton
v
QPR
Over 1.5 goals · 82% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -3.5 pts
Missing — Southampton: C. Larin (questionable), F. Downes (questionable) · QPR: N. Madsen (missing fixture), I. Chair (missing fixture), R. Burrell (missing fixture) +3 more
Altrincham
v
Carlisle
Over 1.5 goals · 82% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -3.5 pts
Barrow
v
Eastleigh
Over 1.5 goals · 82% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -3.5 pts
Tottenham
v
Crystal Palace
Over 1.5 goals · 82% model probability · odds 1.20 · edge -1.3 pts
Missing — Tottenham: R. Bentancur (missing fixture), J. Maddison (questionable), T. Adarabioyo (missing fixture) +6 more · Crystal Palace: J. Strand Larsen (questionable), I. Sarr (missing fixture), T. Tomiyasu (missing fixture) +2 more
FC Porto
v
Estoril
Over 1.5 goals · 82% model probability · odds 1.17 · edge -3.5 pts
Kilmarnock
v
ST Johnstone
Over 1.5 goals · 81% model probability · odds 1.20 · edge -2.3 pts
Motherwell
v
ST Mirren
Over 1.5 goals · 81% model probability · odds 1.20 · edge -2.3 pts
Brentford
v
Nottingham Forest
Over 1.5 goals · 81% model probability · odds 1.22 · edge -1 pts
Missing — Brentford: R. Henry (missing fixture), J. Dasilva (questionable), Fábio Carvalho (missing fixture) +3 more · Nottingham Forest: N. Domínguez (questionable), Igor Jesus (missing fixture), D. Ndoye (missing fixture) +2 more
Milton Keynes Dons
v
Doncaster
Over 1.5 goals · 81% model probability · odds 1.20 · edge -2.3 pts
AC Milan
v
Inter
Over 1.5 goals · 81% model probability · odds 1.20 · edge -2.3 pts
Missing — AC Milan: A. Rabiot (questionable), A. Saelemaekers (missing fixture), S. Chukwueze (missing fixture) +5 more · Inter: Lautaro Martínez (missing fixture), C. Jones (missing fixture), J. Stones (missing fixture) +2 more
Aston Villa
v
Fulham
Over 1.5 goals · 81% model probability · odds 1.22 · edge -1 pts
Missing — Aston Villa: A. Wan-Bissaka (missing fixture), M. Ruggeri (missing fixture), A. Onana (missing fixture) · Fulham: E. Smith Rowe (questionable), R. Sessegnon (missing fixture), D. Affengruber (questionable)
West Ham
v
West Brom
Over 1.5 goals · 80% model probability · odds 1.20 · edge -3.3 pts
Missing — West Ham: J. Veltman (questionable), K. Mavropanos (missing fixture), K. Lamadrid (questionable) · West Brom: M. Johnston (missing fixture), Tobias Christopher Collyer (missing fixture), N. Galves (missing fixture)
Colchester
v
Walsall
Over 1.5 goals · 80% model probability · odds 1.22 · edge -2 pts
Swindon Town
v
Rotherham
Over 1.5 goals · 80% model probability · odds 1.20 · edge -3.3 pts
Tranmere
v
Cheltenham
Over 1.5 goals · 80% model probability · odds 1.22 · edge -2 pts
Leicester
v
Stevenage
Over 1.5 goals · 80% model probability · odds 1.20 · edge -3.3 pts
Wycombe
v
Burton Albion
Over 1.5 goals · 80% model probability · odds 1.20 · edge -3.3 pts
Solihull Moors
v
Kidderminster Harriers
Over 1.5 goals · 80% model probability · odds 1.20 · edge -3.3 pts
Bolton
v
Bristol City
Over 1.5 goals · 79% model probability · odds 1.25 · edge -1 pts
Missing — Bolton: R. Hardie (missing fixture), E. Erhahon (missing fixture), J. McAtee (missing fixture) +2 more · Bristol City: E. Adebayo (questionable), R. Dickie (questionable), L. Tolaj (questionable) +1 more
Salford City
v
Exeter City
Over 1.5 goals · 79% model probability · odds 1.22 · edge -3 pts
Estac Troyes
v
Le Mans
Over 1.5 goals · 79% model probability · odds 1.25 · edge -1 pts
Missing — Estac Troyes: I. Boura (questionable), Y. Titi (questionable), A. Ouzenadji (missing fixture) +1 more · Le Mans: D. Sidibé (missing fixture), Y. Larouci (questionable), H. Voyer (questionable) +2 more
Stoke City
v
Preston
Over 1.5 goals · 78% model probability · odds 1.25 · edge -2 pts
Missing — Stoke City: A. Cresswell (missing fixture), S. Gallagher (missing fixture), S. Ingelsson (missing fixture) +2 more · Preston: L. Lindsay (questionable), A. McCann (missing fixture), H. Clarke (missing fixture) +3 more
Bologna
v
Monza
Over 1.5 goals · 78% model probability · odds 1.25 · edge -2 pts
Missing — Bologna: R. Piccoli (missing fixture), R. Orsolini (missing fixture), L. De Silvestri (missing fixture) +2 more · Monza: M. Pessina (missing fixture), M. Folorunsho (missing fixture), J. Ziółkowski (missing fixture) +1 more
Bournemouth
v
Leeds
Over 1.5 goals · 78% model probability · odds 1.25 · edge -2 pts
Missing — Bournemouth: J. Araujo (missing fixture), A. Scott (missing fixture), A. Tóth (missing fixture) · Leeds: N. Elvedi (questionable), J. Rodon (missing fixture), D. James (questionable) +2 more
Hull City
v
Ipswich
Over 1.5 goals · 78% model probability · odds 1.25 · edge -2 pts
Missing — Hull City: J. Butland (questionable), M. Targett (missing fixture), E. Matazo (missing fixture) +5 more · Ipswich: S. Lukić (questionable), J. Taylor (missing fixture)
Mansfield Town
v
Notts County
Over 1.5 goals · 78% model probability · odds 1.22 · edge -4 pts
Lincoln
v
Birmingham
Over 1.5 goals · 77% model probability · odds 1.30 · edge +0.1 pts
Missing — Lincoln: T. Darikwa (missing fixture), E. Wheatley (missing fixture), M. Melia (missing fixture) · Birmingham: Paik Seung-Ho (missing fixture), Marc Leonard (missing fixture), A. Priske (questionable)
Bradford
v
Huddersfield
Over 1.5 goals · 77% model probability · odds 1.25 · edge -3 pts
Leyton Orient
v
Cambridge United
Over 1.5 goals · 77% model probability · odds 1.25 · edge -3 pts
Millwall
v
Derby
Over 1.5 goals · 77% model probability · odds 1.25 · edge -3 pts
Missing — Millwall: C. De Norre (missing fixture), Massimo Luongo (questionable), F. Marschall (missing fixture) +4 more · Derby: C. Taylor (missing fixture), C. Forsyth (missing fixture), L. Travis (missing fixture) +6 more
Fleetwood Town
v
Bristol Rovers
Over 1.5 goals · 77% model probability · odds 1.25 · edge -3 pts
Wigan
v
Bromley
Over 1.5 goals · 77% model probability · odds 1.25 · edge -3 pts
Hibernian
v
Dundee
Over 1.5 goals · 76% model probability
Coventry
v
Sunderland
Over 1.5 goals · 76% model probability · odds 1.30 · edge -0.9 pts
Missing — Coventry: H. Wright (missing fixture), L. Woolfenden (missing fixture), J. Eccles (missing fixture) +2 more · Sunderland: N. Mukiele (questionable), D. Ballard (missing fixture), W. Isidor (questionable) +2 more
Swansea
v
Blackburn
Over 1.5 goals · 76% model probability · odds 1.28 · edge -2.1 pts
Missing — Swansea: J. Key (missing fixture), C. Burgess (missing fixture), Ronald (missing fixture) +1 more · Blackburn: Yuri Ribeiro (missing fixture), L. Miller (missing fixture), A. Forshaw (missing fixture) +4 more
Port Vale
v
Rochdale
Over 1.5 goals · 74% model probability · odds 1.28 · edge -4.1 pts
Burnley
v
Portsmouth
Over 1.5 goals · 74% model probability · odds 1.30 · edge -2.9 pts
Missing — Burnley: J. Bruun Larsen (missing fixture), K. Walker (questionable), A. Ahmedhodžić (missing fixture) +13 more · Portsmouth: K. Anderson (missing fixture), J. Murphy (questionable), J. Swift (missing fixture) +6 more
Coritiba
v
Vitoria
Over 1.5 goals · 74% model probability · odds 1.28 · edge -4.1 pts
Missing — Coritiba: Lucas Ronier (missing fixture), Lucas Taverna (questionable) · Vitoria: Gabriel Baralhas (missing fixture), Luan Cândido (missing fixture), Marinho (missing fixture) +7 more
Accrington ST
v
Northampton
Over 1.5 goals · 73% model probability · odds 1.33 · edge -2.2 pts
Shrewsbury
v
Gillingham
Over 1.5 goals · 73% model probability · odds 1.33 · edge -2.2 pts
Moreirense
v
Estrela
Over 1.5 goals · 71% model probability · odds 1.33 · edge -4.2 pts
Rayo Vallecano
v
Celta Vigo
Over 1.5 goals · 70% model probability · odds 1.36 · edge -3.5 pts
Missing — Rayo Vallecano: A. Rațiu (questionable), Luiz Felipe (missing fixture), A. Batalla (missing fixture) +1 more · Celta Vigo: Borja Iglesias (missing fixture), C. Starfelt (missing fixture), Álvaro Núñez (missing fixture) +3 more
The model's probability for each goals line beside the current Bet365 price. Market is the price's implied probability with the margin removed; edge is model minus market for the over — negative means the model leans under. Reference numbers, not published selections.
Chelsea
v
Manchester United
Model expects 3.1 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 1.03 | 15.00 | 94% | +1.9 pts |
| 1.5 | 82% | 1.20 | 4.50 | 79% | +2.6 pts |
| 2.5 | 60% | 1.62 | 2.30 | 59% | +1.2 pts |
| 3.5 | 38% | 2.50 | 1.53 | 38% | -0.5 pts |
| 4.5 | 20% | 4.50 | 1.20 | 21% | -0.9 pts |
| 5.5 | 9% | 8.00 | 1.08 | 12% | -2.5 pts |
| 6.5 | 4% | 17.00 | 1.02 | 6% | -1.8 pts |
| 7.5 | 1% | 29.00 | 1.01 | 3% | -2 pts |
| 8.5 | 1% | 51.00 | – | – | – |
Norwich
v
Watford
Model expects 3.1 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 1.02 | 17.00 | 94% | +1.2 pts |
| 1.5 | 82% | 1.17 | 5.00 | 81% | +0.5 pts |
| 2.5 | 60% | 1.57 | 2.38 | 60% | -0.4 pts |
| 3.5 | 38% | 2.38 | 1.57 | 40% | -2.2 pts |
| 4.5 | 20% | 4.33 | 1.22 | 22% | -1.8 pts |
| 5.5 | 9% | 8.00 | 1.08 | 12% | -2.5 pts |
| 6.5 | 4% | 15.00 | 1.03 | 6% | -2.5 pts |
| 7.5 | 1% | 29.00 | 1.01 | 3% | -2 pts |
Stoke City
v
Preston
Model expects 2.8 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% | 1.05 | 11.00 | 91% | +2.6 pts |
| 1.5 | 77% | 1.25 | 4.00 | 76% | +0.7 pts |
| 2.5 | 53% | 1.80 | 2.00 | 53% | +0.5 pts |
| 3.5 | 31% | 3.20 | 1.36 | 30% | +1 pts |
| 4.5 | 15% | 5.50 | 1.14 | 17% | -2 pts |
| 5.5 | 7% | 11.00 | 1.05 | 9% | -2.2 pts |
| 6.5 | 2% | 23.00 | 1.01 | 4% | -1.8 pts |
| 7.5 | 1% | 51.00 | – | – | – |
Bradford
v
Huddersfield
Model expects 2.7 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 1.05 | 11.00 | 91% | +2 pts |
| 1.5 | 75% | 1.25 | 3.75 | 75% | +0.1 pts |
| 2.5 | 51% | 1.85 | 1.95 | 51% | -0.7 pts |
| 3.5 | 29% | 3.25 | 1.33 | 29% | -0.4 pts |
| 4.5 | 14% | 6.00 | 1.12 | 16% | -2 pts |
| 5.5 | 6% | 13.00 | 1.04 | 7% | -1.7 pts |
| 6.5 | 2% | 26.00 | 1.01 | 4% | -1.6 pts |
| 7.5 | 1% | 51.00 | – | – | – |
Port Vale
v
Rochdale
Model expects 2.6 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 1.05 | 11.00 | 91% | +1.3 pts |
| 1.5 | 73% | 1.28 | 3.50 | 73% | +0.1 pts |
| 2.5 | 48% | 1.95 | 1.85 | 49% | -0.5 pts |
| 3.5 | 26% | 3.40 | 1.30 | 28% | -1.3 pts |
| 4.5 | 12% | 6.50 | 1.11 | 15% | -2.3 pts |
| 5.5 | 5% | 15.00 | 1.03 | 6% | -1.5 pts |
| 6.5 | 2% | 29.00 | 1.01 | 3% | -1.7 pts |
Plymouth
v
Reading
Model expects 3.2 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 1.02 | 17.00 | 94% | +1.6 pts |
| 1.5 | 83% | 1.17 | 5.00 | 81% | +1.9 pts |
| 2.5 | 62% | 1.53 | 2.40 | 61% | +0.9 pts |
| 3.5 | 40% | 2.25 | 1.57 | 41% | -1.4 pts |
| 4.5 | 22% | 4.00 | 1.22 | 23% | -1.5 pts |
| 5.5 | 11% | 8.00 | 1.08 | 12% | -1.4 pts |
| 6.5 | 5% | 17.00 | 1.02 | 6% | -1.2 pts |
| 7.5 | 2% | 29.00 | 1.01 | 3% | -1.7 pts |
Grimsby
v
York
Model expects 3.1 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 1.02 | 17.00 | 94% | +1.2 pts |
| 1.5 | 82% | 1.17 | 5.00 | 81% | +0.5 pts |
| 2.5 | 60% | 1.57 | 2.35 | 60% | 0 pts |
| 3.5 | 38% | 2.38 | 1.53 | 39% | -1.6 pts |
| 4.5 | 20% | 4.33 | 1.20 | 22% | -1.5 pts |
| 5.5 | 9% | 9.00 | 1.07 | 11% | -1.2 pts |
| 6.5 | 4% | 17.00 | 1.02 | 6% | -1.8 pts |
| 7.5 | 1% | 34.00 | – | – | – |
Leyton Orient
v
Cambridge United
Model expects 2.7 goals
| Line | Model over | Over | Under | Market over | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 1.05 | 11.00 | 91% | +2 pts |
| 1.5 | 75% | 1.25 | 3.75 | 75% | +0.1 pts |
| 2.5 | 51% | 1.85 | 1.95 | 51% | -0.7 pts |
| 3.5 | 29% | 3.25 | 1.33 | 29% | -0.4 pts |
| 4.5 | 14% | 6.00 | 1.12 | 16% | -2 pts |
| 5.5 | 6% | 13.00 | 1.04 | 7% | -1.7 pts |
| 6.5 | 2% | 26.00 | 1.01 | 4% | -1.6 pts |
| 7.5 | 1% | 51.00 | – | – | – |
Over 1.5 goals lands in roughly three quarters of matches across the leagues we track, and the odds say so: prices between 1.15 and 1.45 are the norm. That makes this the market people treat most casually, and the one where casual treatment costs the most. At 1.25 you are laying four to win one. A bet that "always wins" until it loses twice in an afternoon needs a genuine edge behind it, not a shrug.
The model publishes an over 1.5 selection only when its probability clears a deliberately high bar, currently the highest threshold of any goals market on the site. The probability comes from the same machinery as everything else here: expected goals for each side, a full scoreline distribution, and the sum of every scoreline with two or more goals. At these heights the interesting question is not whether the number is big but whether it is bigger than the price implies. A 90% chance at odds of 1.20 is a value bet; the same chance at 1.08 is a slow leak.
Where this market earns its place is accumulators. Short-priced legs multiply gently, and five well-chosen over 1.5 legs at around 1.30 each build combined odds near 3.7 while keeping each leg's failure rate low. That is precisely what the acca generator does when you leave its default market selected, and it is a more disciplined way to use this line than staking heavily on singles at 1.20.
The failure cases are worth knowing because they cluster. Matches between two cautious sides in relegation trouble, fixtures in leagues with structurally low scoring, and games played in foul weather all produce 1-0 and 0-0 more often than their season averages suggest. The model's opponent-adjusted ratings catch most of this, which is why some heavily fancied fixtures never appear here.
As always, the claim we make for this page is its settled record, published with the odds available at publication. For the mechanics of goals lines, including why the half goal exists and how whole lines push, the glossary's entries on over 2.5 goals and under 2.5 goals cover the family.
They are selections for this market produced by a statistical model rather than a tipster. The model estimates a probability for every fixture it prices, and a selection appears here when that probability clears the market threshold. The market itself is explained in plain English in our glossary.
A model rates every team from recent results, converts those ratings into goal expectancies for each fixture, and turns the expectancies into probabilities for this market. Selections are archived at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Over its full recorded history this market has a 79.4% strike rate from 1781 settled selections, at -4.2% ROI to level stakes. Every settled selection is published in the results archive, including the losing runs.
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