Last updated 32 minutes ago
Strike rate 30.2% from 610 selections, ROI +% to level stakes. Full record for this market.
Lyon
v
Auxerre
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Lyon: Keito Nakamura (missing fixture), J. Duranville (missing fixture), Alejandro Gomes Rodriguez (missing fixture) +5 more · Auxerre: A. Tuanzebe (missing fixture), A. Dioussé (missing fixture), F. Sierralta (missing fixture) +4 more
Sparta Rotterdam
v
PEC Zwolle
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Sparta Rotterdam: Robin van Cruijsen (questionable) · PEC Zwolle: Y. Namli (missing fixture), J. Burger (missing fixture)
VfB Stuttgart
v
1. FC Köln
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — VfB Stuttgart: D. Zagadou (missing fixture), C. Führich (questionable), N. Nartey (missing fixture) +7 more · 1. FC Köln: L. Waldschmidt (missing fixture), Timo Hübers (missing fixture), T. Dallinga (questionable) +2 more
Genoa
v
Como
HT/FT Away/Away
Missing — Genoa: L. Venturino (missing fixture) · Como: M. Kean (questionable), J. Addai (missing fixture)
Altrincham
v
Eastleigh
HT/FT Home/Home
Ipswich
v
Liverpool
HT/FT Away/Away
Missing — Ipswich: Florentino (questionable), J. Taylor (missing fixture), A. Matusiwa (missing fixture) +1 more · Liverpool: J. Gomez (missing fixture), F. Chiesa (missing fixture), B. Barcola (missing fixture) +4 more
Real Betis
v
Real Madrid
HT/FT Away/Away
Missing — Real Betis: Dani Ceballos (missing fixture), G. Lo Celso (missing fixture), Aitor Ruibal (missing fixture) +5 more · Real Madrid: Éder Militão (missing fixture), F. Mendy (missing fixture), A. Tchouaméni (missing fixture) +4 more
Paris Saint Germain
v
Monaco
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Paris Saint Germain: L. Digne (missing fixture), Nuno Mendes (missing fixture), D. Doué (questionable) · Monaco: Takumi Minamino (missing fixture), Mohammed Salisu (missing fixture), Ansu Fati (missing fixture) +2 more
FC Porto
v
Moreirense
HT/FT Home/Home
New York City FC
v
Nashville SC
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — New York City FC: H. Wolf (missing fixture), A. O'Neill (missing fixture), Thiago Martins (questionable) +7 more · Nashville SC: W. Madrigal (missing fixture), Chris Applewhite (questionable)
HT/FT asks you to be right twice: the state of the match at the interval and the result at the end. Nine combinations, prices from around 2.5 for the obvious ones to 30 or more for the exotic, and a market wrapped in more nonsense than any other. Fixed-result folklore clings to HT/FT precisely because the odds are long enough to fantasise about. We offer something less exciting and more useful: probabilities.
The model prices HT/FT from two linked distributions, one for first-half goals and one for the match, tied together so the interval state and final result stay consistent. Its published pick is the combination with the highest probability, most commonly the favourite leading at both checkpoints, and the honest number attached to even that pick is usually between 25% and 40%. The double condition is punishing. A side that wins 60% of the time and leads at half time in 55% of its wins carries a Home/Home probability of about a third, and the price should pay accordingly.
Where does value hide? Mostly in the asymmetries. Slow-starting strong sides, the teams that trail or draw first halves and still win, make Draw/Home and even Away/Home combinations pay far more often than their reputation suggests. Fast-starting fragile sides do the reverse. The model sees both patterns through its first-half expectancy figures rather than anecdotes, and the pick on this page occasionally looks odd for exactly that reason.
Treat the long-priced combinations with respect. A 16.0 shot needs to land better than one time in sixteen to profit, and most never will, whatever a screenshot of someone's winning slip implies. The discipline that makes this market survivable is the same as everywhere: level stakes, no chasing, and judgement based on the settled HT/FT record rather than the best week it ever had.
The first half over 1.5 page covers the interval half of this market on its own, and the 1X2 page the full-time half. When either of those numbers is strong, this page usually explains why.
They are selections for this market produced by a statistical model rather than a tipster. The model estimates a probability for every fixture it prices, and a selection appears here when that probability clears the market threshold. The market itself is explained in plain English in our glossary.
A model rates every team from recent results, converts those ratings into goal expectancies for each fixture, and turns the expectancies into probabilities for this market. Selections are archived at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Over its full recorded history this market has a 30.2% strike rate from 610 settled selections, at -% ROI to level stakes. Every settled selection is published in the results archive, including the losing runs.