Last updated 56 minutes ago
Strike rate 30.5% from 1787 selections. Full record for this market.
Chelsea
v
Manchester United
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Chelsea: João Pedro (missing fixture), R. James (missing fixture), E. Martínez (missing fixture) +6 more · Manchester United: L. Shaw (missing fixture), M. Rashford (questionable), Bruno Fernandes (questionable) +4 more
Lincoln
v
Birmingham
HT/FT Away/Away
Missing — Lincoln: T. Darikwa (missing fixture), E. Wheatley (missing fixture), M. Melia (missing fixture) · Birmingham: Paik Seung-Ho (missing fixture), Marc Leonard (missing fixture), A. Priske (questionable)
Norwich
v
Watford
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Norwich: P. Mattsson (questionable), Mirko Topić (questionable), M. Touré (missing fixture) +3 more · Watford: M. Antonio (missing fixture), K. Baah (missing fixture), S. Coulibaly (missing fixture) +2 more
Stoke City
v
Preston
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Stoke City: A. Cresswell (missing fixture), S. Gallagher (missing fixture), S. Ingelsson (missing fixture) +2 more · Preston: L. Lindsay (questionable), A. McCann (missing fixture), H. Clarke (missing fixture) +3 more
Grimsby
v
York
HT/FT Home/Home
Port Vale
v
Rochdale
HT/FT Home/Home
Bradford
v
Huddersfield
HT/FT Away/Away
Leyton Orient
v
Cambridge United
HT/FT Home/Home
Plymouth
v
Reading
HT/FT Home/Home
FC Halifax Town
v
Yeovil Town
HT/FT Home/Home
Forest Green
v
Harrogate Town
HT/FT Home/Home
Levante
v
Atletico Madrid
HT/FT Away/Away
Missing — Levante: Dela (questionable), E. Bardeli (missing fixture) · Atletico Madrid: Koke (missing fixture), Cristian Romero (questionable), Johnny Cardoso (missing fixture)
Bologna
v
Monza
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Bologna: R. Piccoli (missing fixture), R. Orsolini (missing fixture), L. De Silvestri (missing fixture) +2 more · Monza: M. Pessina (missing fixture), M. Folorunsho (missing fixture), J. Ziółkowski (missing fixture) +1 more
Bayer Leverkusen
v
VfB Stuttgart
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Bayer Leverkusen: M. Diaby (missing fixture), M. Terrier (missing fixture), G. Doué (missing fixture) +4 more · VfB Stuttgart: D. Zagadou (missing fixture), J. Vagnoman (missing fixture), A. Stiller (missing fixture) +3 more
FC Augsburg
v
SC Freiburg
HT/FT Away/Away
Missing — FC Augsburg: S. Mounié (missing fixture), A. Claude-Maurice (questionable), C. Brackelmann (missing fixture) +2 more · SC Freiburg: P. Treu (questionable), J. Makengo (questionable), D. Scherhant (questionable) +1 more
Borussia Mönchengladbach
v
SC Paderborn 07
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Borussia Mönchengladbach: F. Honorat (missing fixture), T. Kleindienst (missing fixture), K. Diks (missing fixture) +5 more · SC Paderborn 07: S. Michel (questionable), S. Klaas (missing fixture), O. Batista Meier (missing fixture) +4 more
Werder Bremen
v
1899 Hoffenheim
HT/FT Away/Away
Missing — Werder Bremen: N. Stark (missing fixture), O. Deman (questionable), J. Stage (missing fixture) +7 more · 1899 Hoffenheim: A. Prass (missing fixture), Bernardo (questionable), P. Wimmer (missing fixture) +4 more
FC Schalke 04
v
RB Leipzig
HT/FT Away/Away
Missing — FC Schalke 04: M. Sylla (missing fixture), M. Wöber (missing fixture), J. Bachmann (missing fixture) +5 more · RB Leipzig: C. Nkunku (questionable), M. Estève (missing fixture), A. Ouédraogo (missing fixture) +1 more
Dundee Utd
v
Heart Of Midlothian
HT/FT Home/Home
Hibernian
v
Dundee
HT/FT Home/Home
Kilmarnock
v
ST Johnstone
HT/FT Home/Home
Motherwell
v
ST Mirren
HT/FT Home/Home
Rangers
v
Aberdeen
HT/FT Home/Home
Bournemouth
v
Leeds
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Bournemouth: J. Araujo (missing fixture), A. Scott (missing fixture), A. Tóth (missing fixture) · Leeds: N. Elvedi (questionable), J. Rodon (missing fixture), D. James (questionable) +2 more
Brentford
v
Nottingham Forest
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Brentford: R. Henry (missing fixture), J. Dasilva (questionable), Fábio Carvalho (missing fixture) +3 more · Nottingham Forest: N. Domínguez (questionable), Igor Jesus (missing fixture), D. Ndoye (missing fixture) +2 more
Coventry
v
Sunderland
HT/FT Away/Away
Missing — Coventry: H. Wright (missing fixture), L. Woolfenden (missing fixture), J. Eccles (missing fixture) +2 more · Sunderland: N. Mukiele (questionable), D. Ballard (missing fixture), W. Isidor (questionable) +2 more
Hull City
v
Ipswich
HT/FT Away/Away
Missing — Hull City: J. Butland (questionable), M. Targett (missing fixture), E. Matazo (missing fixture) +5 more · Ipswich: S. Lukić (questionable), J. Taylor (missing fixture)
Manchester City
v
Brighton
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Manchester City: A. Semenyo (missing fixture), Matheus Nunes (questionable) · Brighton: F. Kadıoğlu (questionable), P. Struijk (missing fixture), K. Mitoma (missing fixture) +5 more
Bolton
v
Bristol City
HT/FT Away/Away
Missing — Bolton: R. Hardie (missing fixture), E. Erhahon (missing fixture), J. McAtee (missing fixture) +2 more · Bristol City: E. Adebayo (questionable), R. Dickie (questionable), L. Tolaj (questionable) +1 more
Burnley
v
Portsmouth
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Burnley: J. Bruun Larsen (missing fixture), K. Walker (questionable), A. Ahmedhodžić (missing fixture) +13 more · Portsmouth: K. Anderson (missing fixture), J. Murphy (questionable), J. Swift (missing fixture) +6 more
Middlesbrough
v
Charlton
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Middlesbrough: A. Jones (missing fixture), D. Strelec (questionable), R. Pukštas (questionable) · Charlton: N. Chalobah (questionable), M. Godden (questionable), C. Sichenje (missing fixture) +1 more
Millwall
v
Derby
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Millwall: C. De Norre (missing fixture), Massimo Luongo (questionable), F. Marschall (missing fixture) +4 more · Derby: C. Taylor (missing fixture), C. Forsyth (missing fixture), L. Travis (missing fixture) +6 more
Southampton
v
QPR
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Southampton: C. Larin (questionable), F. Downes (questionable) · QPR: N. Madsen (missing fixture), I. Chair (missing fixture), R. Burrell (missing fixture) +3 more
Swansea
v
Blackburn
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Swansea: J. Key (missing fixture), C. Burgess (missing fixture), Ronald (missing fixture) +1 more · Blackburn: Yuri Ribeiro (missing fixture), L. Miller (missing fixture), A. Forshaw (missing fixture) +4 more
West Ham
v
West Brom
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — West Ham: J. Veltman (questionable), K. Mavropanos (missing fixture), K. Lamadrid (questionable) · West Brom: M. Johnston (missing fixture), Tobias Christopher Collyer (missing fixture), N. Galves (missing fixture)
Wolves
v
Cardiff
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Wolves: B. Traoré (questionable), R. Jiménez (missing fixture), G. Konan (missing fixture) +4 more · Cardiff: C. Chambers (missing fixture), C. Robinson (questionable), K. Bielik (questionable) +3 more
Accrington ST
v
Northampton
HT/FT Home/Home
Colchester
v
Walsall
HT/FT Home/Home
Crewe
v
Barnet
HT/FT Away/Away
Fleetwood Town
v
Bristol Rovers
HT/FT Away/Away
Oldham
v
Crawley Town
HT/FT Home/Home
Salford City
v
Exeter City
HT/FT Home/Home
Shrewsbury
v
Gillingham
HT/FT Home/Home
Swindon Town
v
Rotherham
HT/FT Home/Home
Tranmere
v
Cheltenham
HT/FT Home/Home
Barnsley
v
Oxford United
HT/FT Away/Away
Leicester
v
Stevenage
HT/FT Home/Home
Mansfield Town
v
Notts County
HT/FT Home/Home
Milton Keynes Dons
v
Doncaster
HT/FT Home/Home
Peterborough
v
Luton
HT/FT Away/Away
Stockport County
v
AFC Wimbledon
HT/FT Home/Home
Wigan
v
Bromley
HT/FT Home/Home
Wycombe
v
Burton Albion
HT/FT Home/Home
Aldershot Town
v
Gateshead
HT/FT Home/Home
Altrincham
v
Carlisle
HT/FT Away/Away
Barrow
v
Eastleigh
HT/FT Home/Home
Boreham Wood
v
Hartlepool
HT/FT Home/Home
Solihull Moors
v
Kidderminster Harriers
HT/FT Away/Away
Tamworth
v
Woking
HT/FT Home/Home
Wealdstone
v
Southend
HT/FT Away/Away
Worthing
v
Sutton Utd
HT/FT Home/Home
Rayo Vallecano
v
Celta Vigo
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Rayo Vallecano: A. Rațiu (questionable), Luiz Felipe (missing fixture), A. Batalla (missing fixture) +1 more · Celta Vigo: Borja Iglesias (missing fixture), C. Starfelt (missing fixture), Álvaro Núñez (missing fixture) +3 more
Feyenoord
v
Fortuna Sittard
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Feyenoord: R. Nelson (missing fixture), B. Nieuwkoop (missing fixture), J. St. Juste (missing fixture) +4 more · Fortuna Sittard: Iván Márquez (questionable), Ramazan Bayram (missing fixture)
Moreirense
v
Estrela
HT/FT Away/Away
Charlotte
v
Orlando City SC
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Charlotte: T. Ream (questionable), A. Saint-Maximin (questionable), B. Bronico (questionable) +4 more · Orlando City SC: G. Dorsey (questionable), R. Jansson (missing fixture), D. Brekalo (missing fixture) +1 more
Udinese
v
AS Roma
HT/FT Away/Away
Missing — Udinese: D. Alaba (missing fixture), O. Solet (questionable), V. Bayo (missing fixture) +3 more · AS Roma: M. Svilar (missing fixture), L. Pellegrini (missing fixture), P. Dybala (missing fixture) +2 more
Tottenham
v
Crystal Palace
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Tottenham: R. Bentancur (missing fixture), J. Maddison (questionable), T. Adarabioyo (missing fixture) +6 more · Crystal Palace: J. Strand Larsen (questionable), I. Sarr (missing fixture), T. Tomiyasu (missing fixture) +2 more
Real Betis
v
Malaga
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Real Betis: Junior Firpo (missing fixture), C. Hernández (missing fixture), Iker Losada (missing fixture) +1 more · Malaga: Joaquín Muñoz (missing fixture), Pablo Martínez (missing fixture), Julen Lobete (missing fixture) +4 more
Bayern München
v
Borussia Dortmund
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Bayern München: M. Neuer (missing fixture), L. Díaz (missing fixture), J. Musiala (missing fixture) +1 more · Borussia Dortmund: E. Can (missing fixture), R. Bensebaïni (questionable), G. Konstantelias (missing fixture) +3 more
Boston United
v
Scunthorpe
HT/FT Home/Home
Heerenveen
v
NEC Nijmegen
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Heerenveen: L. Smans (questionable) · NEC Nijmegen: D. Tadić (missing fixture), P. Sandler (missing fixture), D. Geiger (missing fixture) +3 more
PSV Eindhoven
v
Willem II
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — PSV Eindhoven: A. Pléa (missing fixture), S. Lammers (questionable), J. Schouten (missing fixture) +3 more · Willem II: J. Hoogma (missing fixture), J. Slory (missing fixture), Amine Lachkar (missing fixture)
FC Cincinnati
v
Philadelphia Union
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — FC Cincinnati: T. Malacia (questionable), M. Robinson (missing fixture), P. Bucha (questionable) +2 more · Philadelphia Union: J. Bueno (missing fixture), M. Iloski (missing fixture), D. Jean-Jacques (missing fixture) +1 more
Columbus Crew
v
DC United
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Columbus Crew: E. Bailly (questionable), W. Abou Ali (missing fixture), André Gomes (questionable) +3 more · DC United: L. Munteanu (missing fixture), Gabriel Segal (questionable), T. Baribo (questionable) +1 more
New York City FC
v
CF Montreal
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — New York City FC: M. Moralez (missing fixture), A. Martínez (questionable), K. Trewin (missing fixture) +2 more · CF Montreal: P. Owusu (questionable), B. Ceballos (missing fixture), J. Neal (questionable) +2 more
Sporting Kansas City
v
FC Dallas
HT/FT Away/Away
Missing — Sporting Kansas City: Z. Bassong (questionable), L. Johnsen (questionable), O. Blorian (missing fixture) +4 more · FC Dallas: S. Moore (missing fixture), Geovane (questionable), N. Norris (missing fixture) +1 more
St. Louis City
v
San Diego
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — St. Louis City: R. Bürki (missing fixture), A. Mățan (missing fixture), Célio Pompeu (missing fixture) · San Diego: E. Achouri (missing fixture)
Coritiba
v
Vitoria
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Coritiba: Lucas Ronier (missing fixture), Lucas Taverna (questionable) · Vitoria: Gabriel Baralhas (missing fixture), Luan Cândido (missing fixture), Marinho (missing fixture) +7 more
AC Milan
v
Inter
HT/FT Away/Away
Missing — AC Milan: A. Rabiot (questionable), A. Saelemaekers (missing fixture), S. Chukwueze (missing fixture) +5 more · Inter: Lautaro Martínez (missing fixture), C. Jones (missing fixture), J. Stones (missing fixture) +2 more
Estac Troyes
v
Le Mans
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Estac Troyes: I. Boura (questionable), Y. Titi (questionable), A. Ouzenadji (missing fixture) +1 more · Le Mans: D. Sidibé (missing fixture), Y. Larouci (questionable), H. Voyer (questionable) +2 more
Ajax
v
AZ Alkmaar
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Ajax: K. Dolberg (missing fixture), Caio Henrique (missing fixture), S. Berghuis (questionable) +3 more · AZ Alkmaar: J. Zoet (missing fixture), J. Hornkamp (missing fixture), S. Resink (missing fixture) +3 more
Cambuur
v
GO Ahead Eagles
HT/FT Away/Away
Missing — Cambuur: J. Amofa (missing fixture), B. van Duijl (questionable), W. Asselman (missing fixture) +1 more · GO Ahead Eagles: Pim Saathof (missing fixture)
Aston Villa
v
Fulham
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Aston Villa: A. Wan-Bissaka (missing fixture), M. Ruggeri (missing fixture), A. Onana (missing fixture) · Fulham: E. Smith Rowe (questionable), R. Sessegnon (missing fixture), D. Affengruber (questionable)
Barcelona
v
Alaves
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Barcelona: Eric García (questionable), J. Koundé (questionable), Dani Olmo (missing fixture) +3 more · Alaves: F. Garcés (missing fixture), Mikel Rodríguez (missing fixture)
FC Porto
v
Estoril
HT/FT Home/Home
Los Angeles Galaxy
v
Austin
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — Los Angeles Galaxy: M. Reus (questionable), Riqui Puig (missing fixture), H. Lozano (questionable) +3 more · Austin: J. Bell (questionable), Ervin Torres (questionable), Chris Applewhite (questionable)
San Jose Earthquakes
v
Real Salt Lake
HT/FT Home/Home
Missing — San Jose Earthquakes: T. Werner (missing fixture), J. Gónzalez (questionable), D. Jones (missing fixture) +2 more · Real Salt Lake: L. Engel (questionable), M. Guilavogui (missing fixture), D. Luna (missing fixture) +3 more
HT/FT asks you to be right twice: the state of the match at the interval and the result at the end. Nine combinations, prices from around 2.5 for the obvious ones to 30 or more for the exotic, and a market wrapped in more nonsense than any other. Fixed-result folklore clings to HT/FT precisely because the odds are long enough to fantasise about. We offer something less exciting and more useful: probabilities.
The model prices HT/FT from two linked distributions, one for first-half goals and one for the match, tied together so the interval state and final result stay consistent. Its published pick is the combination with the highest probability, most commonly the favourite leading at both checkpoints, and the honest number attached to even that pick is usually between 25% and 40%. The double condition is punishing. A side that wins 60% of the time and leads at half time in 55% of its wins carries a Home/Home probability of about a third, and the price should pay accordingly.
Where does value hide? Mostly in the asymmetries. Slow-starting strong sides, the teams that trail or draw first halves and still win, make Draw/Home and even Away/Home combinations pay far more often than their reputation suggests. Fast-starting fragile sides do the reverse. The model sees both patterns through its first-half expectancy figures rather than anecdotes, and the pick on this page occasionally looks odd for exactly that reason.
Treat the long-priced combinations with respect. A 16.0 shot needs to land better than one time in sixteen to profit, and most never will, whatever a screenshot of someone's winning slip implies. The discipline that makes this market survivable is the same as everywhere: level stakes, no chasing, and judgement based on the settled HT/FT record rather than the best week it ever had.
The first half over 1.5 page covers the interval half of this market on its own, and the 1X2 page the full-time half. When either of those numbers is strong, this page usually explains why.
They are selections for this market produced by a statistical model rather than a tipster. The model estimates a probability for every fixture it prices, and a selection appears here when that probability clears the market threshold. The market itself is explained in plain English in our glossary.
A model rates every team from recent results, converts those ratings into goal expectancies for each fixture, and turns the expectancies into probabilities for this market. Selections are archived at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Over its full recorded history this market has a 30.4% strike rate from 1798 settled selections, at -% ROI to level stakes. Every settled selection is published in the results archive, including the losing runs.
10 ranked correct score picks + the full model boards, every morning. Go Premium — from $1.49/wk 95 founder places left