Last updated 19 minutes ago
Every selection below comes from the model rather than a person. It prices each fixture across the fourteen leagues we track, and the strongest angle per match is shown with three numbers: the model's probability, the current odds, and the edge, which is the gap between the two expressed in percentage points. A positive edge means the model rates the outcome more likely than the price implies. That is the whole method, and its complete record, wins and losses alike, is on the results page. Probabilities are estimates, not promises, and a 70% chance still fails three times in ten.
Over 2.5 goals · 70% model probability · odds 1.53 · edge +4.6 pts
Of every market it prices for this fixture, the model is most drawn to over 2.5 goals, which it rates at 70%. Form lines of WWDWW and WLLWW tell part of the story; the model also weighs opposition quality and scoring patterns in Premiership. The available 1.53 prices this at about 65%, which leaves 4.6 points between the market and the model.
New York City FC to win · 66% model probability · odds 1.67 · edge +6.1 pts
The model makes New York City FC to win its strongest angle here, at an estimated 66% likelihood. Recent form reads WWLDL for New York City FC and LDDLL for Toronto FC, and the ratings behind those sequences drive the price. At odds of 1.67 the market implies roughly 60%, so the model sees a 6.1 point edge.