Grimsby
v
York
Both teams to score · 64% model probability · odds 1.50
Model Goals 3.1 Corners 10.9 (5.3H · 5.6A) Cards 3.6 BTTS 64% O2.5 61%
Scores 1-1 12.5% 2-1 8.5% 1-2 8.3%
Odds Home 2.40 Draw 3.75 Away 2.62 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.57
Port Vale
v
Rochdale
Port Vale to win · 57% model probability · odds 1.62
Model Goals 2.6 Corners 9.0 (4.7H · 4.3A) Cards 3.1 BTTS 48% O2.5 47%
Scores 1-1 14.6% 0-0 13% 1-0 12.7%
Odds Home 1.62 Draw 3.80 Away 5.25 BTTS 1.91 O2.5 1.95
Accrington ST
v
Northampton
Accrington ST to win · 45% model probability · odds 2.15
Model Goals 2.5 Corners 8.3 (4.3H · 4.0A) Cards 4.3 BTTS 51% O2.5 46%
Scores 1-1 12% 2-1 9.6% 1-0 7.9%
Odds Home 2.15 Draw 3.20 Away 3.40 BTTS 1.83 O2.5 2.10
Colchester
v
Walsall
Both teams to score · 60% model probability · odds 1.62
Model Goals 2.9 Corners 9.6 (4.6H · 5.0A) Cards 4.1 BTTS 60% O2.5 55%
Scores 1-1 13.7% 0-0 8.4% 1-2 8.2%
Odds Home 2.50 Draw 3.60 Away 2.60 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.70
Crewe
v
Barnet
Both teams to score · 63% model probability · odds 1.50
Model Goals 3.1 Corners 10.9 (4.5H · 6.4A) Cards 3.8 BTTS 63% O2.5 60%
Scores 1-1 11.7% 1-2 8.9% 2-1 7.8%
Odds Home 3.00 Draw 3.60 Away 2.20 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.60
Fleetwood Town
v
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers to win · 37% model probability · odds 2.50
Model Goals 2.7 Corners 9.2 (4.8H · 4.4A) Cards 4.5 BTTS 56% O2.5 51%
Scores 1-1 13.9% 1-0 9.9% 0-0 9.4%
Odds Home 2.75 Draw 3.30 Away 2.50 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.85
Oldham
v
Crawley Town
Oldham to win · 55% model probability · odds 1.70
Model Goals 3.1 Corners 9.6 (5.0H · 4.5A) Cards 4.0 BTTS 60% O2.5 60%
Scores 1-1 12.7% 2-1 9.1% 1-0 7.6%
Odds Home 1.70 Draw 3.90 Away 4.33 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.57
Salford City
v
Exeter City
Salford City to win · 62% model probability · odds 1.53
Model Goals 2.9 Corners 9.6 (4.7H · 4.9A) Cards 4.6 BTTS 51% O2.5 54%
Scores 1-1 12.6% 1-0 11% 2-0 10.3%
Odds Home 1.53 Draw 4.20 Away 5.75 BTTS 1.73 O2.5 1.73
Shrewsbury
v
Gillingham
Shrewsbury to win · 48% model probability · odds 1.95
Model Goals 2.5 Corners 9.1 (4.4H · 4.7A) Cards 4.5 BTTS 51% O2.5 46%
Scores 1-1 13.8% 1-0 8.9% 0-0 8.7%
Odds Home 1.95 Draw 3.40 Away 3.80 BTTS 1.83 O2.5 2.05
Swindon Town
v
Rotherham
Both teams to score · 60% model probability · odds 1.57
Model Goals 2.9 Corners 9.3 (5.0H · 4.4A) Cards 3.7 BTTS 60% O2.5 56%
Scores 1-1 13.1% 2-1 8.8% 1-2 7.9%
Odds Home 2.30 Draw 3.50 Away 2.80 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.70
Tranmere
v
Cheltenham
Both teams to score · 58% model probability · odds 1.67
Model Goals 2.9 Corners 8.8 (4.7H · 4.1A) Cards 4.1 BTTS 58% O2.5 55%
Scores 1-1 12.6% 2-1 8.7% 1-2 8.1%
Odds Home 1.90 Draw 3.70 Away 3.80 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.73
Northampton
v
Oldham
Both teams to score · 62% model probability
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 60%
Scores 1-1 11.7% 1-2 9.5% 0-2 7.2%
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 28 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Barnet | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 25 | WDLWW |
| 3 | Cheltenham | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 21 | WWLLL |
| 4 | Crewe | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 21 | LLWWW |
| 5 | York | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 20 | LWDDD |
| 6 | Walsall | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 19 | LWDDD |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 19 | LWDLD |
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 18 | WDWDW |
| 10 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 18 | WLDDW |
| 11 | Shrewsbury | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 12 | Grimsby | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 | WDLLL |
| 13 | Gillingham | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 | LDLWD |
| 14 | Tranmere | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 16 | DWLDL |
| 15 | Swindon Town | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 | DWDLL |
| 16 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 16 | DLLLL |
| 17 | Rochdale | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 15 | LDLDW |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 14 | LLWDL |
| 19 | Northampton | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 | WLWDL |
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 | DLWDL |
| 21 | Colchester | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 12 | LDDLD |
| 22 | Rotherham | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -6 | 12 | DDLLL |
| 23 | Port Vale | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 | LDWWL |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 | DLLDL |
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League Two is statistically the most level playing field in the English game. Budgets across the division sit closer together than anywhere higher up the pyramid, and the football reflects it: the fourth tier consistently posts the highest draw frequency in England, regularly above 28 per cent and in some seasons touching 30. If you bet match results here the way you would in the Premier League — backing favourites and trusting reputation — the draw will quietly eat your bankroll.
Goals run modest, typically 2.4 to 2.6 per game, and matches are decided by fine margins: set pieces, individual errors, a pitch cutting up in February. Home advantage holds up well, and long unbeaten home runs are a recurring feature of the division. Prices, meanwhile, receive the least bookmaker attention of any league we cover. Lines are set with less data and moved by less money, which is exactly the environment where a disciplined statistical approach earns its edge.
The draw is the headline. Because League Two produces so many of them, and because casual money avoids the draw instinctively, drawish fixtures are persistently underpriced. Our model prices the draw in every fixture like any other outcome, and this division generates more draw selections than any other we track. The bar for publishing one is deliberately high, so the ones that appear have cleared a real margin.
Unders are the other recurring theme. Modest scoring plus high draw frequency makes under 2.5 goals a frequent value line, particularly in matches between well-organised mid-table sides with nothing forcing the game open.
The standard early-season caveat applies with extra force in the fourth tier: summer squad turnover is enormous, clubs arrive from the National League or drop from League One with reshaped teams, and until half a dozen rounds are played the model leans on adjusted prior-season ratings with wider uncertainty. It publishes less in August and more from autumn onwards, when its numbers are running on current data.
Every League Two selection is archived at kickoff and settled against the odds available at publication. The full record is on the model results page.