Aldershot Town
v
Yeovil Town
Aldershot Town to win · 44% model probability · odds 2.10 ▼ Steaming 12.5%
Model Goals 2.8 BTTS 57% O2.5 53%
Odds Home 2.10 Draw 3.60 Away 3.00 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.80
Boston United
v
Woking
Boston United to win · 42% model probability · odds 2.15
Model Goals 2.7 BTTS 56% O2.5 52%
Odds Home 2.15 Draw 3.50 Away 2.88 BTTS 1.70 O2.5 1.80
Carlisle
v
Forest Green
Both teams to score · 64% model probability · odds 1.50
Model Goals 3.2 Corners 9.2 (4.8H · 4.4A) Cards 4.9 BTTS 64% O2.5 62%
Odds Home 1.95 Draw 3.60 Away 3.30 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.53
Harrogate Town
v
AFC Fylde
Both teams to score · 66% model probability · odds 1.50
Model Goals 3.4 BTTS 66% O2.5 65%
Odds Home 1.85 Draw 3.90 Away 3.30 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.48
Solihull Moors
v
Barrow
Both teams to score · 61% model probability · odds 1.62
Model Goals 3.0 BTTS 61% O2.5 57%
Odds Home 2.55 Draw 3.60 Away 2.38 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.70
Southend
v
Tamworth
Southend to win · 64% model probability · odds 1.50
Model Goals 3.6 BTTS 63% O2.5 69%
Odds Home 1.50 Draw 4.33 Away 5.00 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.40
Sutton Utd
v
Eastleigh
Sutton Utd to win · 47% model probability · odds 1.95
Model Goals 2.7 BTTS 54% O2.5 50%
Odds Home 1.95 Draw 3.50 Away 3.30 BTTS 1.75 O2.5 1.90
Wealdstone
v
FC Halifax Town
Both teams to score · 61% model probability · odds 1.62
Model Goals 3.0 BTTS 61% O2.5 57%
Odds Home 2.20 Draw 3.50 Away 2.88 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.67
Worthing
v
AFC Hornchurch
Both teams to score · 64% model probability · odds 1.50
Model Goals 3.2 BTTS 64% O2.5 62%
Odds Home 2.10 Draw 3.70 Away 2.88 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.57
Altrincham
v
Hartlepool
Altrincham to win · 43% model probability · odds 2.20 ▼ Steaming 12.0%
Model BTTS 57% O2.5 53%
Odds Home 2.20 Draw 3.40 Away 2.88 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.80
Kidderminster Harriers
v
Gateshead
Kidderminster Harriers to win · 62% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 54%
Odds Home 1.57 Draw 3.90 Away 5.00 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 1.75
Scunthorpe
v
Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood to win · 54% model probability · odds 1.70
Model BTTS 65% O2.5 65%
Odds Home 3.90 Draw 4.00 Away 1.70 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.48
Yeovil Town
v
Solihull Moors
Yeovil Town to win · 52% model probability · odds 1.75
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 57%
Odds Home 1.75 Draw 3.70 Away 3.90 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.67
Hartlepool
v
Worthing
Both teams to score · 61% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 60%
Odds Home 1.75 Draw 3.80 Away 3.80 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.60
Tamworth
v
Wealdstone
Both teams to score · 64% model probability · odds 1.50
Model BTTS 64% O2.5 63%
Odds Home 1.90 Draw 3.75 Away 3.30 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.50
AFC Fylde
v
Altrincham
AFC Fylde to win · 57% model probability · odds 1.67
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 63%
Odds Home 1.67 Draw 3.90 Away 4.20 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.53
Barrow
v
Aldershot Town
Both teams to score · 61% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 58%
Odds Home 1.95 Draw 3.60 Away 3.25 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.62
Boreham Wood
v
Harrogate Town
Boreham Wood to win · 59% model probability · odds 1.60
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 63%
Odds Home 1.60 Draw 4.10 Away 4.50 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.50
Eastleigh
v
Carlisle
Carlisle to win · 52% model probability · odds 1.75
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 60%
Odds Home 3.70 Draw 3.75 Away 1.75 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.60
FC Halifax Town
v
Sutton Utd
Both teams to score · 58% model probability · odds 1.67
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 54%
Odds Home 2.30 Draw 3.50 Away 2.70 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.80
Forest Green
v
Boston United
Both teams to score · 70% model probability
Model BTTS 70% O2.5 70%
Gateshead
v
Southend
Southend to win · 65% model probability
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 61%
Woking
v
Kidderminster Harriers
Both teams to score · 63% model probability
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 60%
AFC Hornchurch
v
Scunthorpe
Both teams to score · 58% model probability
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 55%
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 | WWWLD |
| 3 | AFC Fylde | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 | WDWWL |
| 4 | Kidderminster Harriers | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | WWDWD |
| 5 | Southend | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | DWDLW |
| 6 | Aldershot Town | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | WWDWD |
| 7 | Forest Green | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | WWLLL |
| 8 | AFC Hornchurch | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 | LLWWL |
| 9 | Sutton Utd | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 | LLLWW |
| 10 | Yeovil Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | LLWWW |
| 11 | Eastleigh | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 12 | Carlisle | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | DLWDW |
| 13 | FC Halifax Town | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 | WLWLW |
| 14 | Hartlepool | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 | LWLLL |
| 15 | Altrincham | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 16 | Worthing | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 | DDLLW |
| 17 | Wealdstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 | WLWDL |
| 18 | Scunthorpe | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 | WLLWL |
| 19 | Woking | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 | WLDLW |
| 20 | Boston United | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 | LDLLW |
| 21 | Barrow | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 6 | DWDLD |
| 22 | Tamworth | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 | LDLWL |
| 23 | Gateshead | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 24 | Solihull Moors | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 | LDLLL |
The National League is the deepest division we cover, and it is unlike everything above it. The fifth tier mixes full-time former Football League clubs with part-time sides, budgets that differ by an order of magnitude, and squads that can turn over almost entirely in a summer. It is also where bookmaker coverage is at its thinnest: prices go up later, move on small money, and carry wider margins. That combination — high variance football and low-attention markets — is why we track it at all.
The football itself is attritional. Goals sit in the mid-2s, the draw rate is high in the way of all lower-league English football, and home advantage is among the strongest in the country — long trips, tight grounds and surfaces that punish passing sides all contribute. Big-budget relegated clubs do not simply walk through this division, and the market's habit of pricing them as if they will is one of the most persistent inefficiencies we see anywhere.
Data is the constraint. Fifth-tier matches generate less statistical depth than Football League fixtures, so the model works primarily from results, goals and opposition-adjusted ratings rather than the richer inputs available higher up. It compensates by demanding a larger edge before publishing: a National League selection has to clear a wider margin between model probability and market price than a Premier League one, precisely because the underlying estimate carries more uncertainty.
That discipline matters most in the season's opening weeks. Squad turnover at this level makes August ratings genuinely provisional, and the model stays deliberately quiet until current-season results accumulate. From mid-autumn, when its ratings reflect the actual teams on the pitch rather than last season's, the National League becomes one of our most productive divisions relative to fixtures played.
Expect selections concentrated in the match result and goals markets, with the occasional generously priced draw. Every pick is archived at kickoff, settled at the odds available when published, and recorded on the model results page — the losses as prominently as the wins.