Monza
v
Sassuolo
Both teams to score · 58% model probability · odds 1.67
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 53%
Odds Home 3.00 Draw 3.30 Away 2.30 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.80
Bologna
v
Torino
Bologna to win · 50% model probability · odds 1.85
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 47%
Odds Home 1.85 Draw 3.50 Away 4.10 BTTS 1.91 O2.5 2.00
Udinese
v
Cagliari
Udinese to win · 43% model probability · odds 2.20
Model BTTS 48% O2.5 41%
Odds Home 2.20 Draw 3.10 Away 3.40 BTTS 1.95 O2.5 2.30
AS Roma
v
Inter
Both teams to score · 61% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 56%
Odds Home 2.60 Draw 3.50 Away 2.55 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.67
Venezia
v
Lazio
Both teams to score · 59% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 55%
Odds Home 3.50 Draw 3.40 Away 2.05 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.73
Fiorentina
v
Napoli
Napoli to win · 42% model probability · odds 2.20
Model BTTS 54% O2.5 49%
Odds Home 3.25 Draw 3.40 Away 2.20 BTTS 1.70 O2.5 1.91
Frosinone
v
Como
Como to win · 61% model probability · odds 1.53
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 66%
Odds Home 5.50 Draw 4.33 Away 1.53 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.44
Parma
v
Genoa
Genoa to win · 38% model probability · odds 2.40
Model BTTS 45% O2.5 37%
Odds Home 3.10 Draw 3.10 Away 2.40 BTTS 2.05 O2.5 2.50
Juventus
v
Atalanta
Juventus to win · 57% model probability · odds 1.67
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 53%
Odds Home 1.67 Draw 3.80 Away 4.75 BTTS 1.75 O2.5 1.80
AC Milan
v
Lecce
AC Milan to win · 76% model probability · odds 1.27
Model BTTS 42% O2.5 57%
Odds Home 1.27 Draw 5.25 Away 11.00 BTTS 2.20 O2.5 1.67
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Roma | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 | Inter | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 3 | Como | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 | WWWD |
| 4 | Lazio | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | DWWW |
| 5 | Cagliari | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WWLW |
| 6 | AC Milan | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | DDWW |
| 7 | Frosinone | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWWL |
| 8 | Juventus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | LDWW |
| 9 | Sassuolo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | WDWL |
| 10 | Napoli | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | WLLW |
| 11 | Atalanta | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | LLWW |
| 12 | Lecce | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 | WLLW |
| 13 | Udinese | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 | LLWD |
| 14 | Torino | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | LWLL |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | WLLL |
| 16 | Bologna | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 | LDLL |
| 17 | Parma | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 | LDLL |
| 18 | Monza | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 | LDLL |
| 19 | Genoa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 | DLLL |
| 20 | Venezia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 0 | LLLL |
Serie A's reputation runs a decade behind its reality. The league of catenaccio and 1-0 is now regularly among Europe's higher-scoring divisions — recent seasons have pushed toward and past 2.8 goals per game, at times outscoring the Premier League — and bettors still pricing Italy as a defensive league are giving the overs away. The shift is structural: Italian football's tactical culture now produces aggressive full-backs, high lines and a striking willingness to trade chances.
What Italy retains from its old identity is tactical variance between clubs. Serie A tolerates a wider spread of playing styles than most leagues — a deep-block counter-attacking side, a possession team and a chaotic pressing outfit can occupy adjacent table positions — and that makes head-to-head style matchups matter more here than almost anywhere. A mid-table club's goals-per-game average can be genuinely misleading about how a specific fixture will play, which is why the model prices from opponent-adjusted expectancies rather than raw season averages.
The draw rate sits in the mid-20s, higher than Germany's, and the division has a long tail of tight, tactical regional fixtures where unders remain live despite the league-wide goals shift. Home advantage is solid but no longer exceptional. At the top, the title race has been genuinely multi-club in recent years, which keeps prices on the contenders more honest than in leagues with a single dominant force.
Serie A generates a broad mix of selections: overs in fixtures between the league's progressive attacking sides, unders where two organised blocks meet, and match-result value in the wide competitive middle of the table. Correct score is notably productive here — a league with high tactical variance spreads its scoreline distribution in ways the market prices lazily.
The early-season caveat applies as everywhere: until around six rounds of 2026/27 are played, ratings lean on last season with wider uncertainty, promoted clubs widest of all. Every selection is archived at kickoff, settled at publication odds, and published in full on the model results page.