Bristol City
v
Lincoln
Bristol City to win · 48% model probability · odds 1.90
Model Goals 2.6 Corners 9.4 (5.0H · 4.4A) Cards 3.8 BTTS 52% O2.5 48%
Odds Home 1.90 Draw 3.50 Away 3.90 BTTS 1.83 O2.5 2.00
Middlesbrough
v
Millwall
Middlesbrough to win · 67% model probability · odds 1.42
Model Goals 3.2 Corners 10.4 (5.7H · 4.7A) Cards 3.6 BTTS 55% O2.5 62%
Odds Home 1.42 Draw 4.75 Away 7.00 BTTS 1.73 O2.5 1.53
Wolves
v
Portsmouth
Wolves to win · 38% model probability
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 43%
Bristol City
v
Watford
Bristol City to win · 48% model probability · odds 1.90
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 50%
Odds Home 1.90 Draw 3.40 Away 3.80 BTTS 1.73 O2.5 1.91
Cardiff
v
Charlton
Cardiff to win · 57% model probability · odds 1.70
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 56%
Odds Home 1.70 Draw 3.90 Away 4.33 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.67
Millwall
v
West Ham
Both teams to score · 61% model probability · odds 1.53
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 60%
Odds Home 4.00 Draw 3.80 Away 1.75 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.57
Stoke City
v
Sheffield Utd
Stoke City to win · 37% model probability · odds 2.45
Model BTTS 57% O2.5 52%
Odds Home 2.45 Draw 3.30 Away 2.62 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.80
Birmingham
v
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough to win · 39% model probability · odds 2.30
Model BTTS 57% O2.5 52%
Odds Home 2.88 Draw 3.40 Away 2.30 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.80
Burnley
v
Derby
Burnley to win · 50% model probability · odds 1.80
Model BTTS 54% O2.5 50%
Odds Home 1.80 Draw 3.40 Away 4.10 BTTS 1.73 O2.5 1.91
Lincoln
v
Swansea
Lincoln to win · 36% model probability · odds 2.70
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 51%
Odds Home 2.70 Draw 3.30 Away 2.45 BTTS 1.73 O2.5 1.91
Portsmouth
v
Blackburn
Portsmouth to win · 45% model probability · odds 2.10
Model BTTS 51% O2.5 45%
Odds Home 2.10 Draw 3.25 Away 3.40 BTTS 1.83 O2.5 2.10
QPR
v
Preston
QPR to win · 56% model probability · odds 1.67
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 53%
Odds Home 1.67 Draw 3.75 Away 4.50 BTTS 1.73 O2.5 1.80
Wrexham
v
Southampton
Both teams to score · 58% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 53%
Odds Home 3.00 Draw 3.30 Away 2.20 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.80
Wolves
v
West Brom
Wolves to win · 51% model probability · odds 1.75
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 50%
Odds Home 1.75 Draw 3.50 Away 4.33 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 1.91
Norwich
v
Bolton
Norwich to win · 60% model probability · odds 1.53
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 60%
Odds Home 1.53 Draw 4.00 Away 5.50 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.57
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Swansea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 | WLDWW |
| 3 | West Brom | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 | DWWDL |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 | WWDWL |
| 5 | QPR | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | DDLWW |
| 6 | Charlton | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 12 | DDLDW |
| 7 | Wolves | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | WDLWW |
| 8 | Southampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | WWDDW |
| 9 | Birmingham | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | WLDDW |
| 10 | Stoke City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 11 | Bristol City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 10 | LWWWD |
| 12 | Norwich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 | LWWLW |
| 13 | Millwall | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | LWLLW |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 | LWLWD |
| 15 | Blackburn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | WLLDL |
| 16 | Lincoln | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 | WDDWL |
| 17 | Watford | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 | LWLLD |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 | DWLLW |
| 19 | Wrexham | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 | LDDWL |
| 20 | Bolton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 | WLLLL |
| 21 | Cardiff | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 4 | LDLLD |
| 22 | Derby | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 | LLLWL |
| 23 | Preston | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 3 | LLWLL |
| 24 | Burnley | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 3 | LDLDL |
The Championship is the most compressed division in English football. The gap between a play-off side and a relegation candidate is smaller than in any league above or below it, and that compression shows up everywhere a bettor looks: more draws, fewer short-priced favourites, and league tables that reshuffle month to month. It is also a 46-game season with midweek rounds from August onwards, and fixture congestion is a genuine modelling input, not a pundit's excuse.
The division's betting profile is distinctive. Goals run lower than the Premier League, typically around 2.5 per game, and the draw rate is consistently higher — often touching 28 per cent, among the highest in Europe. Home advantage remains stronger here than in the top flight. Taken together, that means match-result prices cluster in a narrow band: you will see far more fixtures priced 2.30 / 3.25 / 3.10 than anything resembling a foregone conclusion. Markets like this reward a model that estimates probabilities honestly, because the difference between a fair 2.50 and an available 2.70 is invisible to the eye but real over a season.
Squad turnover in this division is ferocious — relegated clubs shedding wages, promoted clubs rebuilding, loan windows reshaping attacks in a fortnight. The model does not read transfer news; it reads results. So in August its ratings lean on last season's data, adjusted for the divisions clubs arrived from, and it treats early rounds with wider uncertainty than it will apply by October. Sides relegated from the Premier League are historically overbet by the public in the opening months, which is precisely when the market is most beatable here.
The markets where the Championship gives us the most work are unders and the draw. A high draw rate and modest scoring make under 2.5 goals a live proposition in a large share of fixtures, and the draw itself — a bet most casual bettors refuse on principle — is priced generously often enough that the model flags it regularly. Our thresholds are deliberately stricter for the draw than for other results, so when one appears as a selection it has cleared a higher bar.
Every Championship pick is archived at kickoff and settled against publication odds. The complete verified record is on the model results page.