Lincoln
v
Birmingham
Birmingham to win · 42% model probability · odds 2.15
Model Goals 2.7 Corners 9.6 (4.3H · 5.3A) Cards 4.2 BTTS 56% O2.5 51%
Scores 1-1 12% 2-1 8.6% 1-2 8.2%
Odds Home 3.20 Draw 3.50 Away 2.15 BTTS 1.73 O2.5 1.91
Norwich
v
Watford
Norwich to win · 62% model probability · odds 1.50
Model Goals 3.1 Corners 9.7 (4.9H · 4.9A) Cards 4.2 BTTS 56% O2.5 60%
Scores 1-1 13.5% 1-0 9% 2-1 8.9%
Odds Home 1.50 Draw 4.20 Away 6.00 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.57
Stoke City
v
Preston
Stoke City to win · 53% model probability · odds 1.75
Model Goals 2.8 Corners 9.3 (5.1H · 4.2A) Cards 4.6 BTTS 54% O2.5 53%
Scores 1-1 13.5% 2-1 8.8% 1-0 8.7%
Odds Home 1.75 Draw 3.70 Away 4.33 BTTS 1.73 O2.5 1.80
Bolton
v
Bristol City
Both teams to score · 58% model probability · odds 1.62
Model Goals 2.8 Corners 10.7 (5.6H · 5.1A) Cards 3.7 BTTS 58% O2.5 54%
Scores 1-1 11.7% 2-1 9% 1-2 7.7%
Odds Home 3.20 Draw 3.30 Away 2.20 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.80
Burnley
v
Portsmouth
Burnley to win · 40% model probability · odds 2.30
Model Goals 2.6 Corners 10.0 (4.5H · 5.5A) Cards 4.1 BTTS 53% O2.5 47%
Scores 1-1 14% 0-1 9.4% 0-0 9.3%
Odds Home 2.30 Draw 3.25 Away 3.00 BTTS 1.73 O2.5 2.00
Middlesbrough
v
Charlton
Middlesbrough to win · 76% model probability · odds 1.25
Model Goals 3.5 Corners 10.4 (5.8H · 4.6A) Cards 3.7 BTTS 52% O2.5 68%
Scores 1-1 12.9% 1-0 11.3% 2-0 10.2%
Odds Home 1.25 Draw 6.00 Away 11.00 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 1.40
Millwall
v
Derby
Millwall to win · 57% model probability · odds 1.65
Model Goals 2.8 Corners 9.9 (4.8H · 5.1A) Cards 4.0 BTTS 53% O2.5 52%
Scores 1-1 13.8% 1-0 9.5% 0-0 8.9%
Odds Home 1.65 Draw 3.80 Away 5.00 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 1.80
Southampton
v
QPR
Both teams to score · 60% model probability · odds 1.53
Model Goals 3.0 Corners 10.3 (5.4H · 4.8A) Cards 4.2 BTTS 60% O2.5 58%
Scores 1-1 13.8% 1-0 10.1% 0-0 9.3%
Odds Home 1.95 Draw 3.70 Away 3.60 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.62
Swansea
v
Blackburn
Swansea to win · 55% model probability · odds 1.73
Model Goals 2.7 Corners 9.6 (4.7H · 4.9A) Cards 4.0 BTTS 51% O2.5 50%
Scores 1-1 13.7% 1-0 10.2% 0-0 9.1%
Odds Home 1.73 Draw 3.75 Away 4.75 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 1.91
West Ham
v
West Brom
West Ham to win · 57% model probability · odds 1.62
Model Goals 3.0 Corners 9.7 (4.4H · 5.2A) Cards 3.8 BTTS 56% O2.5 57%
Scores 1-1 13.6% 1-2 8.5% 0-1 8.5%
Odds Home 1.62 Draw 4.10 Away 4.75 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.67
Wolves
v
Cardiff
Wolves to win · 56% model probability · odds 1.67
Model Goals 3.3 Corners 9.1 (4.0H · 5.2A) Cards 4.1 BTTS 63% O2.5 64%
Scores 1-1 11.7% 2-1 8.9% 1-2 7.8%
Odds Home 1.67 Draw 3.80 Away 4.75 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.50
Blackburn
v
Stoke City
Blackburn to win · 47% model probability
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 45%
Scores 1-1 13.7% 1-0 11.1% 0-0 9.6%
Derby
v
Norwich
Derby to win · 38% model probability
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 45%
Scores 1-1 14.1% 0-0 9.6% 1-0 9.5%
Portsmouth
v
Swansea
Portsmouth to win · 42% model probability
Model BTTS 54% O2.5 48%
Scores 1-1 13.7% 1-0 9.4% 2-1 8.9%
Preston
v
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd to win · 42% model probability
Model BTTS 55% O2.5 50%
Scores 1-1 13.5% 0-1 9.1% 1-2 9%
QPR
v
Burnley
QPR to win · 51% model probability
Model BTTS 55% O2.5 52%
Scores 1-1 12.6% 2-1 9.7% 1-0 9.5%
Watford
v
Lincoln
Watford to win · 37% model probability
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 50%
Scores 1-1 13.5% 2-1 8.4% 1-2 8.2%
Charlton
v
Bolton
Bolton to win · 39% model probability
Model BTTS 57% O2.5 52%
Scores 1-1 13.3% 1-2 8.7% 0-1 8.2%
Birmingham
v
Millwall
Birmingham to win · 42% model probability
Model BTTS 55% O2.5 50%
Scores 1-1 13.5% 2-1 9% 1-0 9%
West Brom
v
Southampton
Both teams to score · 59% model probability
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 55%
Scores 1-1 12.7% 2-1 8.9% 1-2 7.8%
Cardiff
v
West Ham
Cardiff to win · 53% model probability
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 61%
Scores 1-1 11.2% 2-1 9.7% 2-0 7.9%
Wrexham
v
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough to win · 44% model probability
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 51%
Scores 1-1 13.1% 1-2 9.3% 0-1 9%
Bristol City
v
Wolves
Bristol City to win · 37% model probability
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 45%
Scores 1-1 14.2% 0-0 9.7% 1-0 9.4%
Derby
v
Bolton
Derby to win · 37% model probability
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 47%
Bristol City
v
Norwich
Norwich to win · 39% model probability
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 51%
Portsmouth
v
Stoke City
Portsmouth to win · 49% model probability
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 50%
Wrexham
v
Wolves
Wrexham to win · 42% model probability
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 44%
Birmingham
v
Swansea
Birmingham to win · 48% model probability
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 48%
Blackburn
v
West Ham
Blackburn to win · 39% model probability
Model BTTS 55% O2.5 50%
Cardiff
v
Burnley
Cardiff to win · 58% model probability
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 60%
Charlton
v
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd to win · 41% model probability
Model BTTS 55% O2.5 49%
Preston
v
Southampton
Both teams to score · 61% model probability
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 57%
QPR
v
Lincoln
QPR to win · 44% model probability
Model BTTS 54% O2.5 50%
Watford
v
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough to win · 48% model probability
Model BTTS 57% O2.5 54%
West Brom
v
Millwall
West Brom to win · 40% model probability
Model BTTS 54% O2.5 48%
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 25 | WDWWD |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 | LLWWW |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 22 | LWWDD |
| 4 | Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 | WDWLL |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 21 | DWWLL |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 20 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | LWWWD |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | WLWDD |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 | DWLWW |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 11 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 | WLWWD |
| 12 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 | WDWWL |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 | LDLWD |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 | DLLDW |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 | WDLLL |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 | WDWLW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 | LLWLD |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 | LDWLW |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 | LLDDL |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -2 | 12 | WLLLL |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 | LWLLL |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 | LLDWD |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 7 | DLLDD |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 5 | DLLLD |
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The Championship is the most compressed division in English football. The gap between a play-off side and a relegation candidate is smaller than in any league above or below it, and that compression shows up everywhere a bettor looks: more draws, fewer short-priced favourites, and league tables that reshuffle month to month. It is also a 46-game season with midweek rounds from August onwards, and fixture congestion is a genuine modelling input, not a pundit's excuse.
The division's betting profile is distinctive. Goals run lower than the Premier League, typically around 2.5 per game, and the draw rate is consistently higher — often touching 28 per cent, among the highest in Europe. Home advantage remains stronger here than in the top flight. Taken together, that means match-result prices cluster in a narrow band: you will see far more fixtures priced 2.30 / 3.25 / 3.10 than anything resembling a foregone conclusion. Markets like this reward a model that estimates probabilities honestly, because the difference between a fair 2.50 and an available 2.70 is invisible to the eye but real over a season.
Squad turnover in this division is ferocious — relegated clubs shedding wages, promoted clubs rebuilding, loan windows reshaping attacks in a fortnight. The model does not read transfer news; it reads results. So in August its ratings lean on last season's data, adjusted for the divisions clubs arrived from, and it treats early rounds with wider uncertainty than it will apply by October. Sides relegated from the Premier League are historically overbet by the public in the opening months, which is precisely when the market is most beatable here.
The markets where the Championship gives us the most work are unders and the draw. A high draw rate and modest scoring make under 2.5 goals a live proposition in a large share of fixtures, and the draw itself — a bet most casual bettors refuse on principle — is priced generously often enough that the model flags it regularly. Our thresholds are deliberately stricter for the draw than for other results, so when one appears as a selection it has cleared a higher bar.
Every Championship pick is archived at kickoff and settled against publication odds. The complete verified record is on the model results page.