Lincoln
v
Southampton
Both teams to score · 59% model probability · odds 1.67
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 57%
Odds Home 4.20 Draw 3.80 Away 1.80 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.73
Preston
v
Blackburn
Preston to win · 40% model probability · odds 2.35
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 47%
Odds Home 2.35 Draw 3.25 Away 3.00 BTTS 1.73 O2.5 2.00
Stoke City
v
Charlton
Stoke City to win · 45% model probability · odds 2.10
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 44%
Odds Home 2.10 Draw 3.25 Away 3.50 BTTS 1.83 O2.5 2.10
Burnley
v
Bristol City
Burnley to win · 49% model probability · odds 1.85
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 53%
Odds Home 1.85 Draw 3.60 Away 4.00 BTTS 1.73 O2.5 1.80
Millwall
v
Bolton
Millwall to win · 49% model probability · odds 1.90
Model BTTS 51% O2.5 47%
Odds Home 1.90 Draw 3.40 Away 4.00 BTTS 1.83 O2.5 2.00
Portsmouth
v
Cardiff
Both teams to score · 60% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 56%
Odds Home 2.38 Draw 3.40 Away 2.90 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.73
QPR
v
Middlesbrough
Both teams to score · 58% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 54%
Odds Home 3.20 Draw 3.40 Away 2.20 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.73
Sheffield Utd
v
Norwich
Both teams to score · 58% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 53%
Odds Home 2.60 Draw 3.30 Away 2.62 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.80
West Brom
v
Watford
West Brom to win · 51% model probability · odds 1.85
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 49%
Odds Home 1.85 Draw 3.60 Away 4.00 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 1.91
West Ham
v
Derby
West Ham to win · 68% model probability · odds 1.36
Model BTTS 47% O2.5 55%
Odds Home 1.36 Draw 5.00 Away 7.50 BTTS 2.00 O2.5 1.73
Swansea
v
Wrexham
Swansea to win · 43% model probability · odds 2.20
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 46%
Odds Home 2.20 Draw 3.25 Away 3.30 BTTS 1.73 O2.5 2.00
Birmingham
v
Wolves
Wolves to win · 37% model probability · odds 2.35
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 45%
Odds Home 3.00 Draw 3.20 Away 2.35 BTTS 1.83 O2.5 2.10
Blackburn
v
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd to win · 35% model probability
Model BTTS 48% O2.5 40%
Cardiff
v
Stoke City
Cardiff to win · 60% model probability
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 51%
Southampton
v
Swansea
Southampton to win · 38% model probability
Model BTTS 51% O2.5 44%
Watford
v
Preston
Watford to win · 43% model probability
Model BTTS 57% O2.5 53%
Wrexham
v
Burnley
Wrexham to win · 53% model probability
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 48%
Bolton
v
West Ham
Bolton to win · 56% model probability
Model BTTS 66% O2.5 68%
Derby
v
West Brom
Derby to win · 38% model probability
Model BTTS 49% O2.5 41%
Norwich
v
Birmingham
Norwich to win · 39% model probability
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 43%
Charlton
v
QPR
Charlton to win · 37% model probability
Model BTTS 47% O2.5 39%
West Ham
v
Wrexham
West Ham to win · 38% model probability
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 42%
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 | QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 | Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 | Wolves | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | LWWD |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | DWLW |
| 6 | Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | WWDL |
| 7 | West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | DLWW |
| 8 | Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | DWDD |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | WDDD |
| 10 | Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 | LLWW |
| 11 | Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WLDD |
| 12 | West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | WDLD |
| 13 | Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | DLWD |
| 14 | Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 | LDDW |
| 15 | Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | LLDW |
| 16 | Derby | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 | WLDL |
| 17 | Lincoln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 | DWLL |
| 18 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | DWWL |
| 19 | Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 | LDDD |
| 20 | Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 | LWLL |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | LLWL |
| 22 | Stoke City | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | WLLL |
| 23 | Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 | DLLD |
| 24 | Preston | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 | LLLL |
The Championship is the most compressed division in English football. The gap between a play-off side and a relegation candidate is smaller than in any league above or below it, and that compression shows up everywhere a bettor looks: more draws, fewer short-priced favourites, and league tables that reshuffle month to month. It is also a 46-game season with midweek rounds from August onwards, and fixture congestion is a genuine modelling input, not a pundit's excuse.
The division's betting profile is distinctive. Goals run lower than the Premier League, typically around 2.5 per game, and the draw rate is consistently higher — often touching 28 per cent, among the highest in Europe. Home advantage remains stronger here than in the top flight. Taken together, that means match-result prices cluster in a narrow band: you will see far more fixtures priced 2.30 / 3.25 / 3.10 than anything resembling a foregone conclusion. Markets like this reward a model that estimates probabilities honestly, because the difference between a fair 2.50 and an available 2.70 is invisible to the eye but real over a season.
Squad turnover in this division is ferocious — relegated clubs shedding wages, promoted clubs rebuilding, loan windows reshaping attacks in a fortnight. The model does not read transfer news; it reads results. So in August its ratings lean on last season's data, adjusted for the divisions clubs arrived from, and it treats early rounds with wider uncertainty than it will apply by October. Sides relegated from the Premier League are historically overbet by the public in the opening months, which is precisely when the market is most beatable here.
The markets where the Championship gives us the most work are unders and the draw. A high draw rate and modest scoring make under 2.5 goals a live proposition in a large share of fixtures, and the draw itself — a bet most casual bettors refuse on principle — is priced generously often enough that the model flags it regularly. Our thresholds are deliberately stricter for the draw than for other results, so when one appears as a selection it has cleared a higher bar.
Every Championship pick is archived at kickoff and settled against publication odds. The complete verified record is on the model results page.