Bayer Leverkusen
v
VfB Stuttgart
Bayer Leverkusen to win · 55% model probability · odds 1.75
Model Goals 3.9 Corners 11.2 (5.8H · 5.4A) Cards 3.8 BTTS 72% O2.5 74%
Scores 1-1 9.6% 2-1 9.3% 3-1 6.6%
Odds Home 1.75 Draw 4.33 Away 4.00 BTTS 1.33 O2.5 1.30
FC Augsburg
v
SC Freiburg
Both teams to score · 68% model probability · odds 1.40
Model Goals 3.4 Corners 8.6 (4.5H · 4.1A) Cards 3.9 BTTS 68% O2.5 66%
Scores 1-1 12.2% 2-1 8.8% 1-2 7.9%
Odds Home 2.90 Draw 3.75 Away 2.25 BTTS 1.40 O2.5 1.44
Borussia Mönchengladbach
v
SC Paderborn 07
Both teams to score · 66% model probability · odds 1.44
Model Goals 3.3 Corners 9.9 (4.6H · 5.3A) Cards 3.9 BTTS 66% O2.5 64%
Scores 1-1 13% 1-2 8.6% 2-1 8.1%
Odds Home 2.20 Draw 3.75 Away 3.00 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.50
Werder Bremen
v
1899 Hoffenheim
Both teams to score · 69% model probability · odds 1.36
Model Goals 3.5 Corners 9.3 (4.2H · 5.1A) Cards 4.6 BTTS 69% O2.5 68%
Scores 1-1 12.8% 2-1 8.6% 1-2 8.1%
Odds Home 2.60 Draw 3.80 Away 2.45 BTTS 1.36 O2.5 1.40
FC Schalke 04
v
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig to win · 52% model probability · odds 1.80
Model Goals 3.4 Corners 10.0 (4.9H · 5.1A) Cards 4.2 BTTS 66% O2.5 66%
Scores 1-1 12.8% 2-1 9.4% 1-0 8.6%
Odds Home 4.00 Draw 4.00 Away 1.80 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.44
Bayern München
v
Borussia Dortmund
Bayern München to win · 72% model probability · odds 1.33
Model Goals 4.0 Corners 11.5 (6.3H · 5.3A) Cards 3.5 BTTS 64% O2.5 76%
Scores 2-1 9.4% 1-1 9.3% 2-0 7.2%
Odds Home 1.33 Draw 5.75 Away 7.50 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.28
Union Berlin
v
1. FC Köln
Both teams to score · 61% model probability · odds 1.53
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 57%
Scores 1-1 13% 2-1 9.3% 1-0 8.8%
Odds Home 2.70 Draw 3.50 Away 2.55 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.67
Eintracht Frankfurt
v
Hamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt to win · 61% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 66%
Scores 1-1 12.7% 2-1 9.6% 1-0 9.2%
Odds Home 1.57 Draw 4.50 Away 5.00 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.44
Hamburger SV
v
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Both teams to score · 64% model probability · odds 1.50
Model BTTS 64% O2.5 61%
Odds Home 2.25 Draw 3.70 Away 2.80 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.57
Borussia Dortmund
v
SV Elversberg
Borussia Dortmund to win · 74% model probability · odds 1.27
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 72%
Odds Home 1.27 Draw 5.75 Away 8.00 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.33
RB Leipzig
v
FC Augsburg
RB Leipzig to win · 65% model probability · odds 1.48
Model BTTS 70% O2.5 76%
Odds Home 1.48 Draw 4.75 Away 5.50 BTTS 1.40 O2.5 1.28
FSV Mainz 05
v
Bayern München
Bayern München to win · 65% model probability · odds 1.42
Model BTTS 72% O2.5 80%
Odds Home 5.50 Draw 5.75 Away 1.42 BTTS 1.33 O2.5 1.22
SC Paderborn 07
v
Eintracht Frankfurt
Both teams to score · 68% model probability · odds 1.40
Model BTTS 68% O2.5 67%
Odds Home 3.00 Draw 3.80 Away 2.10 BTTS 1.40 O2.5 1.44
VfB Stuttgart
v
Werder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart to win · 64% model probability · odds 1.48
Model BTTS 66% O2.5 72%
Odds Home 1.48 Draw 4.75 Away 5.25 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.33
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 | WDDWW |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 | LLWDW |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 5 | SV Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 | WLWLD |
| 6 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | WDDWD |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 | LLWLW |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 | WWLLW |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 | DLLDW |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 3 | WLLLL |
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The Bundesliga is the highest-scoring of Europe's big five leagues, and has been for most of the past decade. Seasons regularly average above 3.1 goals per game — a level the Premier League only occasionally touches — driven by a league-wide culture of aggressive pressing, quick transitions and, frankly, defending that prioritises winning the ball over protecting the box. For a goals-based model, Germany is the most natural fit of any league we cover.
That scoring profile shapes where the value lives. Overs, both teams to score and high correct scores all carry structurally higher probabilities here than the same markets in Italy or France, and bookmakers know it — but the lines still anchor toward pan-European norms often enough that the model finds regular work on over 2.5 and BTTS. The draw rate, meanwhile, is the lowest of the big leagues in most seasons, which makes the draw a rare selection here and match-result prices a little more decisive.
Two structural quirks matter. First, it is an 18-team league: 34 rounds, fewer fixtures, and a winter break that genuinely resets form — teams come out of January differently than they went in, and the model widens its uncertainty for the first rounds after the restart just as it does in August. Second, the top of the division is historically top-heavy. Heavy favourites at very short prices are common, and as everywhere, we let the probability-versus-price test decide rather than the reputation.
The model's goal-expectancy approach was built for exactly this environment: it estimates how many goals each side should score against this specific opponent, then prices every market from that distribution. In a league where the honest answer is often "plenty", the interesting question becomes which side of 2.5 or 3.5 the true number sits on — and those lines are where most Bundesliga selections appear.
Early-season ratings lean on 2025/26 data until around six rounds are played, with promoted clubs from the 2. Bundesliga carrying the widest uncertainty. Every selection is archived at kickoff and settled at publication odds; the complete record is on the model results page.