VfB Stuttgart
v
1. FC Köln
VfB Stuttgart to win · 66% model probability · odds 1.45
Model Goals 3.7 Corners 10.7 (5.3H · 5.4A) Cards 4.1 BTTS 64% O2.5 71%
Odds Home 1.45 Draw 5.00 Away 5.50 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.36
1899 Hoffenheim
v
Borussia Dortmund
Both teams to score · 68% model probability · odds 1.40
Model BTTS 68% O2.5 66%
Odds Home 2.88 Draw 3.90 Away 2.20 BTTS 1.40 O2.5 1.44
Bayer Leverkusen
v
Union Berlin
Bayer Leverkusen to win · 68% model probability · odds 1.44
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 67%
Odds Home 1.44 Draw 4.75 Away 6.25 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.44
Borussia Mönchengladbach
v
SV Elversberg
Both teams to score · 62% model probability · odds 1.53
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 60%
Odds Home 1.90 Draw 3.75 Away 3.80 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.57
Werder Bremen
v
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig to win · 55% model probability · odds 1.73 ▼ Steaming 13.5%
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 64%
Odds Home 4.33 Draw 4.00 Away 1.73 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.50
SC Paderborn 07
v
SC Freiburg
Both teams to score · 60% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 57%
Odds Home 3.60 Draw 3.60 Away 1.95 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.67
FC Schalke 04
v
Bayern München
Bayern München to win · 81% model probability · odds 1.17
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 79%
Odds Home 15.00 Draw 7.50 Away 1.17 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.22
Hamburger SV
v
FSV Mainz 05
Both teams to score · 60% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 56%
Odds Home 2.88 Draw 3.50 Away 2.40 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.73
Eintracht Frankfurt
v
FC Augsburg
Both teams to score · 65% model probability · odds 1.44
Model BTTS 65% O2.5 64%
Odds Home 1.91 Draw 3.90 Away 3.60 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.50
Union Berlin
v
FC Schalke 04
Both teams to score · 63% model probability · odds 1.50
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 61%
Odds Home 2.05 Draw 3.50 Away 3.10 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.57
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 2 | SC Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 3 | FC Augsburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 5 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 6 | SV Elversberg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 7 | 1. FC Köln | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 9 | Union Berlin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 11 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 12 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 13 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 14 | Hamburger SV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 16 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 18 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | L |
The Bundesliga is the highest-scoring of Europe's big five leagues, and has been for most of the past decade. Seasons regularly average above 3.1 goals per game — a level the Premier League only occasionally touches — driven by a league-wide culture of aggressive pressing, quick transitions and, frankly, defending that prioritises winning the ball over protecting the box. For a goals-based model, Germany is the most natural fit of any league we cover.
That scoring profile shapes where the value lives. Overs, both teams to score and high correct scores all carry structurally higher probabilities here than the same markets in Italy or France, and bookmakers know it — but the lines still anchor toward pan-European norms often enough that the model finds regular work on over 2.5 and BTTS. The draw rate, meanwhile, is the lowest of the big leagues in most seasons, which makes the draw a rare selection here and match-result prices a little more decisive.
Two structural quirks matter. First, it is an 18-team league: 34 rounds, fewer fixtures, and a winter break that genuinely resets form — teams come out of January differently than they went in, and the model widens its uncertainty for the first rounds after the restart just as it does in August. Second, the top of the division is historically top-heavy. Heavy favourites at very short prices are common, and as everywhere, we let the probability-versus-price test decide rather than the reputation.
The model's goal-expectancy approach was built for exactly this environment: it estimates how many goals each side should score against this specific opponent, then prices every market from that distribution. In a league where the honest answer is often "plenty", the interesting question becomes which side of 2.5 or 3.5 the true number sits on — and those lines are where most Bundesliga selections appear.
Early-season ratings lean on 2025/26 data until around six rounds are played, with promoted clubs from the 2. Bundesliga carrying the widest uncertainty. Every selection is archived at kickoff and settled at publication odds; the complete record is on the model results page.