Bradford
v
Huddersfield
Huddersfield to win · 37% model probability · odds 2.45
Model Goals 2.7 Corners 10.8 (5.2H · 5.6A) Cards 4.2 BTTS 57% O2.5 51%
Scores 1-1 13.7% 0-0 8.4% 0-1 8.2%
Odds Home 2.75 Draw 3.50 Away 2.45 BTTS 1.70 O2.5 1.85
Leyton Orient
v
Cambridge United
Leyton Orient to win · 37% model probability · odds 2.55
Model Goals 2.7 Corners 9.8 (5.0H · 4.8A) Cards 4.0 BTTS 56% O2.5 51%
Scores 1-1 14.1% 0-0 9.4% 0-1 9.3%
Odds Home 2.55 Draw 3.40 Away 2.62 BTTS 1.70 O2.5 1.85
Plymouth
v
Reading
Both teams to score · 65% model probability · odds 1.44
Model Goals 3.2 Corners 9.0 (4.6H · 4.4A) Cards 4.0 BTTS 65% O2.5 62%
Scores 1-1 11.1% 1-2 8.6% 2-1 8%
Odds Home 2.40 Draw 3.50 Away 2.75 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.53
Barnsley
v
Oxford United
Both teams to score · 64% model probability · odds 1.50
Model Goals 3.2 Corners 9.4 (5.2H · 4.2A) Cards 3.8 BTTS 64% O2.5 61%
Scores 1-1 13% 2-1 8.9% 1-0 7.9%
Odds Home 2.62 Draw 3.60 Away 2.45 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.53
Leicester
v
Stevenage
Leicester to win · 57% model probability · odds 1.65
Model Goals 2.9 Corners 9.6 (4.9H · 4.7A) Cards 4.0 BTTS 56% O2.5 56%
Scores 1-1 13.7% 1-0 9.7% 0-0 8.9%
Odds Home 1.65 Draw 4.00 Away 4.75 BTTS 1.70 O2.5 1.67
Mansfield Town
v
Notts County
Mansfield Town to win · 51% model probability · odds 1.83
Model Goals 2.8 Corners 9.9 (5.0H · 4.9A) Cards 4.0 BTTS 55% O2.5 53%
Scores 1-1 12.6% 2-1 9.2% 1-0 7.6%
Odds Home 1.83 Draw 3.70 Away 3.90 BTTS 1.70 O2.5 1.80
Milton Keynes Dons
v
Doncaster
Both teams to score · 60% model probability · odds 1.57
Model Goals 3.0 Corners 9.4 (4.4H · 5.0A) Cards 4.0 BTTS 60% O2.5 57%
Scores 1-1 11% 2-1 8.4% 1-2 8.2%
Odds Home 2.00 Draw 3.50 Away 3.50 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.70
Peterborough
v
Luton
Both teams to score · 66% model probability · odds 1.50
Model Goals 3.3 Corners 11.0 (5.3H · 5.7A) Cards 3.6 BTTS 66% O2.5 64%
Scores 1-1 10% 2-1 8.4% 1-2 7.6%
Odds Home 3.40 Draw 3.75 Away 1.95 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.50
Stockport County
v
AFC Wimbledon
Stockport County to win · 74% model probability · odds 1.27
Model Goals 3.4 Corners 9.8 (5.1H · 4.7A) Cards 3.7 BTTS 52% O2.5 66%
Scores 1-1 12.3% 2-1 9.7% 1-0 8.9%
Odds Home 1.27 Draw 5.75 Away 9.50 BTTS 1.91 O2.5 1.44
Wigan
v
Bromley
Wigan to win · 50% model probability · odds 1.85
Model Goals 2.7 Corners 9.4 (4.5H · 4.9A) Cards 4.1 BTTS 54% O2.5 51%
Scores 1-1 13.9% 1-0 9.5% 0-0 9.1%
Odds Home 1.85 Draw 3.60 Away 4.00 BTTS 1.75 O2.5 1.85
Wycombe
v
Burton Albion
Wycombe to win · 60% model probability · odds 1.57
Model Goals 2.9 Corners 9.0 (4.8H · 4.2A) Cards 3.7 BTTS 54% O2.5 57%
Scores 1-1 12.9% 2-1 9.3% 1-0 8.8%
Odds Home 1.57 Draw 4.10 Away 5.25 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 1.67
Sheffield Wednesday
v
Blackpool
Sheffield Wednesday to win · 55% model probability · odds 1.70
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 61%
Scores 1-1 12.6% 2-1 8.6% 1-2 8.1%
Odds Home 1.70 Draw 4.00 Away 4.33 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.57
Huddersfield
v
Luton
Both teams to score · 66% model probability
Model BTTS 66% O2.5 66%
Scores 1-1 10.4% 2-1 9.3% 1-2 6.7%
Oxford United
v
Reading
Reading to win · 39% model probability
Model BTTS 57% O2.5 52%
Scores 1-1 13.2% 1-2 8.7% 2-1 8%
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Stockport County | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 23 | LDWWW |
| 3 | Oxford United | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 22 | WDWDW |
| 4 | Bradford | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 22 | DDWDD |
| 5 | Plymouth | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 22 | WLLWW |
| 6 | Reading | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 21 | WWLWD |
| 7 | Cambridge United | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 21 | DLDWW |
| 8 | Luton | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 | WWWLW |
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 19 | DLLWD |
| 10 | Mansfield Town | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 | WWDWD |
| 11 | Leicester | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 | WLWWL |
| 12 | Burton Albion | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 17 | WDDLL |
| 13 | Stevenage | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | LWLWL |
| 14 | Milton Keynes Dons | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 15 | WWLWL |
| 15 | Wycombe | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -4 | 15 | DDWLD |
| 16 | Leyton Orient | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 | LLWDL |
| 17 | AFC Wimbledon | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 13 | DLLLD |
| 18 | Doncaster | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 12 | LWLLW |
| 19 | Notts County | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 11 | DWLLL |
| 20 | Blackpool | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 | LWLLL |
| 21 | Peterborough | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 | DLDWL |
| 22 | Bromley | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -19 | 9 | LDLLL |
| 23 | Barnsley | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 | LLLLD |
| 24 | Wigan | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -12 | 7 | LLLWL |
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League One sits at the point in the English pyramid where bookmaker attention starts to thin out. The Premier League gets the sharpest prices in world football; by the third tier, odds compilers are covering 46 rounds of twelve fixtures with a fraction of the scrutiny, and lines move on far less money. For a statistical model, that is opportunity: the same probability estimate that finds nothing to bet in a top-flight fixture will regularly find a mispriced line here.
The division's profile is mid-scoring — usually around 2.5 to 2.6 goals per game — with a draw rate near 26 per cent and robust home advantage. What distinguishes League One from the divisions above it is variance in squad quality across a season. Third-tier squads are thin, so a single injury to a starting striker or a January loan recall changes a team's output in a way that simply doesn't happen at clubs carrying internationals in reserve. Form swings are sharper and longer-lasting.
The model's recent-form weighting earns its keep in this division. Because it rates teams on a rolling window of results weighted for opposition quality, a genuine mid-season collapse or surge feeds through within a few matches — faster than season-long league position, which is what the casual market anchors on. Clubs relegated from the Championship arrive with inflated reputations and deflated squads, and their early-season prices are among the most reliably wrong in English football; the reverse applies to sides promoted with momentum from League Two.
Early in 2026/27 the usual caveat applies: until around six rounds are played, ratings lean on last season's data adjusted for division changes, and the model widens its uncertainty accordingly. It is deliberately quieter in August than in March.
The markets that produce the most League One selections are the match result — where honest probabilities meet soft lines — and over/under goals in fixtures where a team's true scoring rate has moved ahead of its reputation. Every selection is archived at kickoff, settled at publication odds, and published on the model results page, wins and losses alike.