Feyenoord
v
Fortuna Sittard
Feyenoord to win · 82% model probability · odds 1.17
Model Goals 4.0 Corners 10.4 (6.1H · 4.3A) Cards 3.5 BTTS 55% O2.5 77%
Scores 1-1 10.3% 2-0 10.2% 2-1 9.9%
Odds Home 1.17 Draw 7.50 Away 15.00 BTTS 1.75 O2.5 1.25
Heerenveen
v
NEC Nijmegen
Both teams to score · 70% model probability · odds 1.36
Model Goals 3.6 Corners 10.1 (5.1H · 5.0A) Cards 3.0 BTTS 70% O2.5 70%
Scores 1-1 12.3% 2-1 9% 1-2 7.7%
Odds Home 2.00 Draw 4.00 Away 3.25 BTTS 1.36 O2.5 1.36
PSV Eindhoven
v
Willem II
PSV Eindhoven to win · 90% model probability · odds 1.08
Model Goals 4.9 Corners 11.3 (6.5H · 4.9A) Cards 3.0 BTTS 56% O2.5 86%
Scores 2-1 9.3% 1-1 9.1% 3-1 6.9%
Odds Home 1.08 Draw 13.00 Away 19.00 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.12
Ajax
v
AZ Alkmaar
Ajax to win · 56% model probability · odds 1.70
Model Goals 3.6 Corners 10.8 (5.0H · 5.8A) Cards 3.6 BTTS 68% O2.5 70%
Scores 1-1 12.8% 2-1 8.9% 1-2 7.9%
Odds Home 1.70 Draw 4.75 Away 4.10 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.36
Cambuur
v
GO Ahead Eagles
Both teams to score · 68% model probability · odds 1.40
Model Goals 3.4 Corners 10.9 (5.7H · 5.2A) Cards 3.3 BTTS 68% O2.5 67%
Scores 1-1 10.7% 2-1 9.2% 1-2 7%
Odds Home 2.75 Draw 3.90 Away 2.25 BTTS 1.40 O2.5 1.44
PEC Zwolle
v
ADO Den Haag
Both teams to score · 62% model probability · odds 1.50
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 59%
Scores 1-1 12.8% 1-2 8.6% 2-1 8.2%
Odds Home 2.25 Draw 3.60 Away 3.00 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.60
Excelsior
v
Twente
Twente to win · 62% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 65%
Scores 1-1 11.2% 1-2 9.8% 0-2 8.2%
Odds Home 5.50 Draw 4.33 Away 1.57 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.48
Telstar
v
Utrecht
Both teams to score · 65% model probability · odds 1.44
Model BTTS 65% O2.5 62%
Scores 1-1 11% 1-2 8.7% 2-1 7.9%
Odds Home 2.80 Draw 3.80 Away 2.30 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.53
Groningen
v
Sparta Rotterdam
Groningen to win · 54% model probability · odds 1.75
Model BTTS 65% O2.5 66%
Scores 1-1 11.9% 2-1 8.8% 1-2 7.9%
Odds Home 1.75 Draw 4.20 Away 4.10 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.44
Willem II
v
PEC Zwolle
Both teams to score · 66% model probability · odds 1.44
Model BTTS 66% O2.5 64%
Odds Home 3.10 Draw 3.75 Away 2.10 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.48
Fortuna Sittard
v
Telstar
Both teams to score · 61% model probability · odds 1.53
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 59%
Odds Home 2.00 Draw 3.50 Away 3.50 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.62
ADO Den Haag
v
Sparta Rotterdam
Both teams to score · 64% model probability · odds 1.50
Model BTTS 64% O2.5 61%
Odds Home 2.30 Draw 3.60 Away 2.80 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.57
Excelsior
v
GO Ahead Eagles
Both teams to score · 67% model probability · odds 1.40
Model BTTS 67% O2.5 65%
Odds Home 2.75 Draw 3.70 Away 2.25 BTTS 1.40 O2.5 1.48
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 24 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 | DLWLW |
| 4 | Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 20 | WLDWW |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 20 | LDLWD |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | DLWWD |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 | WLDDD |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 | WDWDW |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 12 | DWWLW |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 | DDDDL |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 | LWDLL |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 | DWLLL |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 | LLDLD |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 | LWDDL |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 2 | LLLLL |
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The Eredivisie is the highest-scoring serious league in Europe. Dutch football's institutional commitment to attack — 4-3-3, high lines, youth systems that produce forwards and wingers in industrial quantities — keeps seasons consistently above 3.1 goals per game, ahead even of the Bundesliga. For a goals-based model, the Netherlands is the most target-rich environment on our slate, and overs, both teams to score and high correct scores all carry structurally higher probabilities here than pan-European instincts suggest.
The league's competitive shape is top-heavy in a particular way: the traditional big three are usually clear of the field, but the gap between them fluctuates season to season more than in other two-or-three-club leagues, and the chasing pack is genuinely volatile — clubs surge and collapse between seasons as their best players are sold every summer. That churn is the second defining feature for a bettor: the Eredivisie is Europe's biggest talent exporter relative to its size, so August teams and May teams can be materially different sides wearing the same shirt.
Draws sit at the low end of the European range, home advantage is solid, and mismatches are frequent — the bottom third concedes freely against the top, which keeps the goals profile fat and makes team-total and handicap-adjacent thinking useful even where we bet the standard lines.
Rolling opposition-adjusted ratings handle the summer-churn problem better than reputation does: when a gutted squad starts leaking goals, the ratings register it within a few rounds while the market is still pricing last season's team. Early season carries the usual wider uncertainty, promoted sides most of all. Expect our Eredivisie selections to cluster in over 2.5 and BTTS, with match-result value mostly in the volatile middle of the table rather than around the big three, whose prices are short and efficient.
Every Eredivisie selection is archived at kickoff, settled at publication odds, and published — wins and losses — on the model results page.