Fluminense
v
Remo
Fluminense to win · 68% model probability · odds 1.40
Model BTTS 45% O2.5 52%
Odds Home 1.40 Draw 4.33 Away 7.50 BTTS 2.00 O2.5 1.80
Internacional
v
Atletico-MG
Internacional to win · 44% model probability · odds 2.20
Model BTTS 51% O2.5 45%
Odds Home 2.20 Draw 3.20 Away 3.25 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 2.05
Cruzeiro
v
Flamengo
Flamengo to win · 41% model probability · odds 2.30
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 47%
Odds Home 3.10 Draw 3.20 Away 2.30 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 2.00
RB Bragantino
v
Gremio
RB Bragantino to win · 57% model probability · odds 1.70
Model BTTS 51% O2.5 51%
Odds Home 1.70 Draw 3.60 Away 4.75 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 1.85
Palmeiras
v
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras to win · 57% model probability · odds 1.67
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 50%
Odds Home 1.67 Draw 3.60 Away 5.25 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 1.85
Vitoria
v
Bahia
Vitoria to win · 37% model probability · odds 2.55
Model BTTS 54% O2.5 47%
Odds Home 2.55 Draw 3.20 Away 2.70 BTTS 1.75 O2.5 2.00
Chapecoense-sc
v
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo to win · 43% model probability · odds 2.10
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 46%
Odds Home 3.40 Draw 3.25 Away 2.10 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 2.05
Santos
v
Mirassol
Santos to win · 51% model probability · odds 1.85
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 48%
Odds Home 1.85 Draw 3.40 Away 4.20 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 1.95
Coritiba
v
Corinthians
Corinthians to win · 37% model probability · odds 2.40
Model BTTS 44% O2.5 36%
Odds Home 3.00 Draw 3.10 Away 2.40 BTTS 2.10 O2.5 2.50
Botafogo
v
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo to win · 45% model probability · odds 2.10
Model BTTS 51% O2.5 46%
Odds Home 2.10 Draw 3.30 Away 3.50 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 2.05
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 48 | LDWLW |
| 2 | Flamengo | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 45 | WWDDW |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 | Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 38 | WDDDD |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 36 | WWWLW |
| 6 | Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 | DDDDD |
| 7 | RB Bragantino | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 32 | DLDDW |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 32 | WDWDW |
| 9 | Corinthians | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 32 | LWDDW |
| 10 | Coritiba | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | -2 | 31 | DWLDL |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 30 | LDWDW |
| 12 | Vitoria | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | -10 | 29 | WLLLD |
| 13 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 27 | DLDLL |
| 14 | Santos | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -3 | 25 | WLDLW |
| 15 | Gremio | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 25 | LWDLL |
| 16 | Mirassol | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -10 | 23 | LLWDW |
| 17 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 23 | DDLLL |
| 18 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 | DLWLW |
| 19 | Vasco DA Gama | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -11 | 22 | LDDLL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | -23 | 11 | DLDLL |
Brazil's Série A is on our slate for two reasons: it is a deep, competitive, twenty-club league that the model prices well, and it runs on a calendar year — filling the European summer and quiet midweeks when our other leagues rest. When the Premier League is on a beach in June, Brazil is mid-season, and the fixture list here is one of the busiest in world football: league rounds, state obligations and continental competition stack up relentlessly.
The football confounds the stereotype. Modern Série A is not samba chaos; it is one of the lowest-scoring major leagues in the world, regularly near 2.2 to 2.4 goals per game — tactical, physical, and refereed in a way that fragments matches. Unders and low correct scores are the structural lean, and over-priced overs from bettors expecting carnival football are a persistent source of value on the other side.
Two Brazilian particulars matter enormously. Travel: this is a country the size of a continent, and away trips can cross three time zones into different climates — home advantage in Série A is among the strongest in world football, and away form league-wide is dismal. Squad churn: the European transfer windows raid Brazilian squads twice a year mid-season, so a team's April XI and its August XI can be strangers.
Separated home and away ratings do the heavy lifting in a league this venue-asymmetric, and rolling form windows absorb the mid-season selling better than reputation-based pricing does. Continental competition (Libertadores and Sudamericana) forces heavy weekend rotation the market is slow to price — the Brazilian equivalent of the Europa League hangover, and one of our most reliable angles here. Expect selections leaning to home results, unders, and the draw, which lands frequently and is chronically underbet.
Every Série A selection is archived at kickoff, settled at the odds available at publication, and published in full on the model results page.