AEK Athens FC
v
Lask Linz
AEK Athens FC to win · 55% model probability · odds 1.73
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 59%
Odds Home 1.73 Draw 3.90 Away 4.20 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.62
Club Brugge KV
v
Aston Villa
Both teams to score · 62% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 58%
Odds Home 2.62 Draw 3.90 Away 2.40 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.67
AEK Athens FC
v
Real Madrid
AEK Athens FC to win · 49% model probability
Model BTTS 48% O2.5 44%
AEK Athens FC
v
AS Roma
AEK Athens FC to win · 54% model probability
Model BTTS 48% O2.5 46%
AEK Athens FC
v
Galatasaray
AEK Athens FC to win · 47% model probability
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 48%
Arsenal
v
Real Madrid
Arsenal to win · 44% model probability
Model BTTS 46% O2.5 40%
Arsenal
v
Borussia Dortmund
Arsenal to win · 51% model probability
Model BTTS 48% O2.5 43%
Arsenal
v
Lille
Arsenal to win · 46% model probability
Model BTTS 44% O2.5 37%
Arsenal
v
Sabah FA
Arsenal to win · 37% model probability
Model BTTS 51% O2.5 45%
AS Roma
v
Real Madrid
AS Roma to win · 39% model probability
Model BTTS 46% O2.5 38%
AS Roma
v
Sporting CP
Sporting CP to win · 36% model probability
Model BTTS 42% O2.5 33%
AS Roma
v
Lille
AS Roma to win · 42% model probability
Model BTTS 43% O2.5 36%
AS Roma
v
Slovan Bratislava
Slovan Bratislava to win · 36% model probability
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 43%
Aston Villa
v
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain to win · 49% model probability
Model BTTS 55% O2.5 52%
Aston Villa
v
Borussia Dortmund
Aston Villa to win · 36% model probability
Model BTTS 54% O2.5 48%
Aston Villa
v
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe to win · 49% model probability
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 48%
Aston Villa
v
Viking
Viking to win · 46% model probability
Model BTTS 57% O2.5 54%
Atletico Madrid
v
Bayern München
Both teams to score · 70% model probability
Model BTTS 70% O2.5 70%
Atletico Madrid
v
Manchester United
Atletico Madrid to win · 43% model probability
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 51%
Atletico Madrid
v
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe to win · 44% model probability
Model BTTS 57% O2.5 53%
Atletico Madrid
v
Viking
Both teams to score · 58% model probability
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 53%
Barcelona
v
Manchester City
Both teams to score · 61% model probability
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 59%
Barcelona
v
Aston Villa
Barcelona to win · 64% model probability
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 58%
Barcelona
v
Como
Barcelona to win · 51% model probability
Model BTTS 49% O2.5 46%
Bayern München
v
Arsenal
Both teams to score · 61% model probability
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 59%
Bayern München
v
Real Betis
Bayern München to win · 64% model probability
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 64%
Bayern München
v
Slavia Praha
Bayern München to win · 57% model probability
Model BTTS 70% O2.5 73%
Real Betis
v
Arsenal
Arsenal to win · 45% model probability
Model BTTS 48% O2.5 42%
Real Betis
v
FC Porto
FC Porto to win · 46% model probability
Model BTTS 49% O2.5 43%
Real Betis
v
Feyenoord
Feyenoord to win · 44% model probability
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 51%
Real Betis
v
Como
Real Betis to win · 34% model probability
Model BTTS 46% O2.5 38%
Bodo/Glimt
v
Atletico Madrid
Bodo/Glimt to win · 71% model probability
Model BTTS 55% O2.5 65%
Bodo/Glimt
v
Borussia Dortmund
Bodo/Glimt to win · 63% model probability
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 64%
Bodo/Glimt
v
Lille
Bodo/Glimt to win · 58% model probability
Model BTTS 51% O2.5 51%
Bodo/Glimt
v
Lask Linz
Bodo/Glimt to win · 56% model probability
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 64%
Club Brugge KV
v
Liverpool
Both teams to score · 65% model probability
Model BTTS 65% O2.5 63%
Club Brugge KV
v
Bodo/Glimt
Both teams to score · 72% model probability
Model BTTS 72% O2.5 72%
Club Brugge KV
v
Lens
Both teams to score · 67% model probability
Model BTTS 67% O2.5 67%
Como
v
Paris Saint Germain
Como to win · 36% model probability
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 50%
Como
v
Manchester United
Como to win · 49% model probability
Model BTTS 51% O2.5 47%
Como
v
AEK Athens FC
Como to win · 45% model probability
Model BTTS 47% O2.5 41%
Borussia Dortmund
v
Inter
Both teams to score · 59% model probability
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 55%
Borussia Dortmund
v
Real Betis
Borussia Dortmund to win · 54% model probability
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 51%
Borussia Dortmund
v
Villarreal
Borussia Dortmund to win · 54% model probability · odds 1.75
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 62%
Odds Home 1.75 Draw 3.90 Away 4.10 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.53
Borussia Dortmund
v
AEK Athens FC
Borussia Dortmund to win · 48% model probability
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 50%
FC Porto
v
Manchester City
Manchester City to win · 52% model probability · odds 1.70
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 56%
Odds Home 4.33 Draw 4.00 Away 1.70 BTTS 1.70 O2.5 1.67
FC Porto
v
PSV Eindhoven
FC Porto to win · 37% model probability
Model BTTS 51% O2.5 44%
FC Porto
v
Napoli
FC Porto to win · 44% model probability
Model BTTS 38% O2.5 31%
FC Porto
v
Slavia Praha
FC Porto to win · 47% model probability
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 48%
Fenerbahçe
v
Liverpool
Fenerbahçe to win · 45% model probability
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 52%
Fenerbahçe
v
Villarreal
Fenerbahçe to win · 46% model probability
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 47%
Fenerbahçe
v
Slavia Praha
Both teams to score · 60% model probability
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 56%
Feyenoord
v
Inter
Both teams to score · 59% model probability
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 54%
Feyenoord
v
FC Porto
FC Porto to win · 37% model probability
Model BTTS 54% O2.5 48%
Feyenoord
v
RB Leipzig
Feyenoord to win · 53% model probability
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 60%
Feyenoord
v
Como
Feyenoord to win · 45% model probability
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 45%
Galatasaray
v
Barcelona
Both teams to score · 66% model probability
Model BTTS 66% O2.5 65%
Galatasaray
v
Aston Villa
Galatasaray to win · 64% model probability
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 57%
Galatasaray
v
Feyenoord
Both teams to score · 60% model probability
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 56%
Galatasaray
v
VfB Stuttgart
Galatasaray to win · 66% model probability
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 70%
Inter
v
Liverpool
Inter to win · 46% model probability
Model BTTS 54% O2.5 50%
Inter
v
Club Brugge KV
Inter to win · 42% model probability
Model BTTS 55% O2.5 50%
Inter
v
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk to win · 44% model probability
Model BTTS 55% O2.5 51%
Inter
v
VfB Stuttgart
Inter to win · 60% model probability
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 63%
Lask Linz
v
Liverpool
Both teams to score · 58% model probability
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 54%
Lask Linz
v
FC Porto
FC Porto to win · 37% model probability
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 46%
Lask Linz
v
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe to win · 37% model probability
Model BTTS 57% O2.5 52%
Lask Linz
v
Slovan Bratislava
Both teams to score · 58% model probability
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 53%
Lens
v
Manchester City
Both teams to score · 61% model probability
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 57%
Lens
v
Sporting CP
Sporting CP to win · 37% model probability
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 46%
Lens
v
Bodo/Glimt
Both teams to score · 69% model probability
Model BTTS 69% O2.5 68%
Lens
v
Como
Lens to win · 45% model probability
Model BTTS 49% O2.5 44%
Lille
v
Bayern München
Both teams to score · 63% model probability
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 61%
Lille
v
Real Betis
Lille to win · 44% model probability · odds 2.15
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 52%
Odds Home 2.15 Draw 3.70 Away 3.00 BTTS 1.70 O2.5 1.80
Lille
v
Galatasaray
Lille to win · 36% model probability
Model BTTS 51% O2.5 44%
Lille
v
Slovan Bratislava
Slovan Bratislava to win · 56% model probability
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 50%
Liverpool
v
FC Porto
FC Porto to win · 41% model probability
Model BTTS 54% O2.5 48%
Liverpool
v
Villarreal
Liverpool to win · 42% model probability
Model BTTS 55% O2.5 50%
Liverpool
v
Lens
Both teams to score · 62% model probability
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 60%
Manchester City
v
Paris Saint Germain
Both teams to score · 58% model probability
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 53%
Manchester City
v
Sporting CP
Sporting CP to win · 40% model probability
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 44%
Manchester City
v
Napoli
Manchester City to win · 38% model probability
Model BTTS 44% O2.5 36%
Manchester City
v
AEK Athens FC
Manchester City to win · 42% model probability
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 43%
Manchester United
v
Bayern München
Both teams to score · 74% model probability
Model BTTS 74% O2.5 76%
Manchester United
v
AS Roma
Both teams to score · 62% model probability
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 59%
Manchester United
v
RB Leipzig
Both teams to score · 65% model probability
Model BTTS 65% O2.5 64%
Napoli
v
Club Brugge KV
Club Brugge KV to win · 40% model probability
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 43%
Napoli
v
Bodo/Glimt
Both teams to score · 62% model probability
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 60%
Napoli
v
Viking
Viking to win · 43% model probability
Model BTTS 54% O2.5 49%
Paris Saint Germain
v
Barcelona
Both teams to score · 65% model probability
Model BTTS 65% O2.5 63%
Paris Saint Germain
v
AS Roma
Paris Saint Germain to win · 46% model probability
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 52%
Paris Saint Germain
v
Galatasaray
Paris Saint Germain to win · 50% model probability
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 53%
PSV Eindhoven
v
Atletico Madrid
PSV Eindhoven to win · 60% model probability
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 62%
PSV Eindhoven
v
Club Brugge KV
Both teams to score · 67% model probability
Model BTTS 67% O2.5 65%
PSV Eindhoven
v
VfB Stuttgart
PSV Eindhoven to win · 62% model probability
Model BTTS 72% O2.5 77%
RB Leipzig
v
Manchester City
Both teams to score · 69% model probability
Model BTTS 69% O2.5 68%
RB Leipzig
v
PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven to win · 52% model probability
Model BTTS 67% O2.5 67%
RB Leipzig
v
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk to win · 47% model probability
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 52%
RB Leipzig
v
Lens
Both teams to score · 70% model probability
Model BTTS 70% O2.5 69%
Real Madrid
v
Inter
Real Madrid to win · 60% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 62%
Odds Home 1.57 Draw 4.10 Away 5.50 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.53
Real Madrid
v
PSV Eindhoven
Both teams to score · 61% model probability
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 57%
Real Madrid
v
RB Leipzig
Real Madrid to win · 56% model probability
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 62%
Real Madrid
v
Lask Linz
Both teams to score · 67% model probability
Model BTTS 67% O2.5 65%
Sabah FA
v
Barcelona
Both teams to score · 60% model probability
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 56%
Sabah FA
v
Borussia Dortmund
Sabah FA to win · 44% model probability
Model BTTS 57% O2.5 53%
Sabah FA
v
Napoli
Sabah FA to win · 41% model probability
Model BTTS 44% O2.5 37%
Sabah FA
v
Slavia Praha
Sabah FA to win · 36% model probability
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 47%
Shakhtar Donetsk
v
Real Madrid
Shakhtar Donetsk to win · 40% model probability
Model BTTS 51% O2.5 45%
Shakhtar Donetsk
v
Sporting CP
Sporting CP to win · 38% model probability
Model BTTS 47% O2.5 39%
Shakhtar Donetsk
v
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe to win · 37% model probability
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 45%
Shakhtar Donetsk
v
AEK Athens FC
Shakhtar Donetsk to win · 43% model probability
Model BTTS 46% O2.5 39%
Slavia Praha
v
Arsenal
Slavia Praha to win · 47% model probability
Model BTTS 49% O2.5 44%
Slavia Praha
v
Aston Villa
Slavia Praha to win · 70% model probability
Model BTTS 48% O2.5 57%
Slavia Praha
v
Villarreal
Slavia Praha to win · 59% model probability
Model BTTS 49% O2.5 50%
Slovan Bratislava
v
Inter
Inter to win · 45% model probability
Model BTTS 54% O2.5 50%
Slovan Bratislava
v
Real Betis
Both teams to score · 60% model probability
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 57%
Slovan Bratislava
v
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk to win · 52% model probability
Model BTTS 51% O2.5 49%
Slovan Bratislava
v
VfB Stuttgart
Both teams to score · 76% model probability
Model BTTS 76% O2.5 76%
Sporting CP
v
Barcelona
Both teams to score · 61% model probability
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 57%
Sporting CP
v
Manchester United
Sporting CP to win · 52% model probability
Model BTTS 49% O2.5 46%
Sporting CP
v
Lask Linz
Both teams to score · 59% model probability
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 55%
VfB Stuttgart
v
Atletico Madrid
VfB Stuttgart to win · 53% model probability
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 51%
VfB Stuttgart
v
Club Brugge KV
Both teams to score · 59% model probability
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 55%
VfB Stuttgart
v
Lille
VfB Stuttgart to win · 42% model probability
Model BTTS 54% O2.5 49%
Viking
v
Bayern München
Both teams to score · 78% model probability
Model BTTS 78% O2.5 79%
Viking
v
PSV Eindhoven
Both teams to score · 77% model probability
Model BTTS 77% O2.5 78%
Viking
v
Feyenoord
Both teams to score · 71% model probability
Model BTTS 71% O2.5 71%
Viking
v
Sabah FA
Both teams to score · 67% model probability
Model BTTS 67% O2.5 66%
Villarreal
v
Paris Saint Germain
Both teams to score · 59% model probability
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 56%
Villarreal
v
Manchester United
Villarreal to win · 41% model probability
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 51%
Villarreal
v
Napoli
Villarreal to win · 34% model probability
Model BTTS 46% O2.5 38%
Villarreal
v
Sabah FA
Both teams to score · 64% model probability
Model BTTS 64% O2.5 61%
Barcelona
v
Feyenoord
Both teams to score · 60% model probability
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 57%
VfB Stuttgart
v
Viking
Both teams to score · 58% model probability
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 54%
Liverpool
v
Atletico Madrid
Liverpool to win · 52% model probability
Model BTTS 54% O2.5 52%
Napoli
v
Arsenal
Arsenal to win · 43% model probability
Model BTTS 43% O2.5 36%
Paris Saint Germain
v
Slovan Bratislava
Both teams to score · 60% model probability
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 56%
Sporting CP
v
Galatasaray
Sporting CP to win · 47% model probability
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 47%
Fenerbahçe
v
AS Roma
Fenerbahçe to win · 37% model probability · odds 2.55
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 50%
Odds Home 2.55 Draw 3.30 Away 2.62 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.91
PSV Eindhoven
v
Shakhtar Donetsk
PSV Eindhoven to win · 64% model probability · odds 1.42
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 64%
Odds Home 1.42 Draw 4.75 Away 7.00 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.53
Bayern München
v
Bodo/Glimt
Bayern München to win · 82% model probability · odds 1.17
Model BTTS 64% O2.5 83%
Odds Home 1.17 Draw 8.00 Away 15.00 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.17
Como
v
RB Leipzig
Both teams to score · 58% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 55%
Odds Home 2.05 Draw 3.60 Away 3.25 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.73
Manchester United
v
Sabah FA
Manchester United to win · 82% model probability · odds 1.14
Model BTTS 55% O2.5 77%
Odds Home 1.14 Draw 8.00 Away 17.00 BTTS 1.91 O2.5 1.25
Slavia Praha
v
Lens
Both teams to score · 58% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 54%
Odds Home 2.75 Draw 3.30 Away 2.50 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.80
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Athens FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WD |
| 2 | Arsenal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | Bayern München | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | Bodo/Glimt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WWWD |
| 9 | Club Brugge KV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | Como | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | Fenerbahçe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDWWD |
| 12 | Feyenoord | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | Galatasaray | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | Inter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | Lask Linz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WL |
| 16 | RB Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 | Lens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | Lille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | Manchester City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | Manchester United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | Napoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | Paris Saint Germain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | FC Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | PSV Eindhoven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 27 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | AS Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 29 | Slovan Bratislava | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDWWD |
| 30 | Sabah FA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WLWLW |
| 31 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 33 | Sporting CP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 | VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 35 | Viking | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WD |
| 36 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The Champions League is two different betting propositions stapled together. The league phase — 36 clubs, eight fixtures each against eight different opponents — produces a steady diet of mismatches and semi-mismatches, where the interesting markets are rarely the match result. The knockout rounds from February are elite-versus-elite, priced by the sharpest markets in club football, where value is scarce and small edges in goals and scoreline markets are all anyone honest can claim.
The league phase is where most of our selections come from. The format guarantees fixtures between clubs from leagues of very different strengths, and cross-league pricing is genuinely hard — a mid-ranking Bundesliga side against a Portuguese contender has no shared league table to anchor on. The model's ratings are built from opposition-adjusted results, so it prices cross-border fixtures the same way it prices domestic ones, and the disagreements with the market are more frequent here than in any domestic top flight we cover.
Scoring in the competition runs high — comfortably above 3 goals per game in recent league-phase seasons — because mismatches produce lopsided scorelines and because even the tighter fixtures are contested by the most attacking squads in Europe. Home advantage is real but thinner than domestic norms; travelling elite squads are far less bothered by a Tuesday abroad than a League One side is by a wet Friday away.
Qualifying rounds and the early league phase carry the widest uncertainty of the season: August European form arrives before domestic seasons have calibrated the ratings, and clubs from earlier-starting leagues hold a genuine sharpness edge the model picks up through their results. Expect our early-round selections to favour goals markets and clearer mismatches, with match-result picks becoming more frequent once domestic data accumulates through autumn.
In knockout football, one-off variance dominates: the better team goes out regularly, and no probability estimate makes a two-legged tie certain. We publish what the numbers support and nothing more. Every selection is archived at kickoff, settled at publication odds, and recorded in full on the model results page.