Galatasaray
v
VfB Stuttgart
Both teams to score · 70% model probability · odds 1.36
Model BTTS 70% O2.5 69%
Scores 1-1 10.3% 2-1 9.7% 2-0 7.9%
Odds Home 2.15 Draw 3.60 Away 3.00 BTTS 1.36 O2.5 1.40
Shakhtar Donetsk
v
Sporting CP
Sporting CP to win · 48% model probability · odds 1.90
Model BTTS 57% O2.5 54%
Scores 1-1 14% 0-0 9.2% 1-0 8.9%
Odds Home 3.70 Draw 3.70 Away 1.90 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.73
Atletico Madrid
v
Bayern München
Both teams to score · 69% model probability · odds 1.36
Model BTTS 69% O2.5 70%
Scores 1-1 9.4% 1-2 9% 2-2 6.8%
Odds Home 3.40 Draw 3.90 Away 1.95 BTTS 1.36 O2.5 1.40
Barcelona
v
Aston Villa
Barcelona to win · 77% model probability · odds 1.25
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 78%
Scores 1-1 11.6% 2-1 9.9% 2-0 9.7%
Odds Home 1.25 Draw 6.00 Away 10.00 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.22
Bodo/Glimt
v
Lille
Bodo/Glimt to win · 53% model probability · odds 1.80
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 64%
Scores 1-1 12.4% 2-1 9.7% 1-0 9.5%
Odds Home 1.80 Draw 3.80 Away 4.10 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.50
Feyenoord
v
Inter
Inter to win · 55% model probability · odds 1.70
Model BTTS 67% O2.5 68%
Scores 1-1 12.6% 1-2 8.6% 2-1 8.2%
Odds Home 4.20 Draw 4.10 Away 1.70 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.40
Lask Linz
v
Slovan Bratislava
Lask Linz to win · 65% model probability · odds 1.42
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 66%
Scores 1-1 11.4% 1-2 9.4% 0-2 7.1%
Odds Home 1.42 Draw 4.50 Away 7.00 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.44
Manchester United
v
AS Roma
Both teams to score · 66% model probability · odds 1.50
Model BTTS 66% O2.5 64%
Scores 1-1 12.3% 1-2 8.6% 2-1 8.2%
Odds Home 2.30 Draw 3.80 Away 2.70 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.50
Villarreal
v
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain to win · 59% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 67% O2.5 70%
Scores 1-1 12.7% 1-2 9% 2-1 7.7%
Odds Home 4.50 Draw 4.50 Away 1.57 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.36
AEK Athens FC
v
Real Madrid
Real Madrid to win · 71% model probability · odds 1.25
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 72%
Scores 1-1 13% 1-0 9.9% 2-1 9.5%
Odds Home 8.00 Draw 7.00 Away 1.25 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.33
Fenerbahçe
v
Liverpool
Liverpool to win · 57% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 64%
Scores 1-1 12.3% 2-1 9.4% 1-0 7.8%
Odds Home 5.00 Draw 4.50 Away 1.57 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.50
Borussia Dortmund
v
Real Betis
Borussia Dortmund to win · 54% model probability · odds 1.75
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 62%
Scores 1-1 13.2% 1-0 9.9% 2-1 9.4%
Odds Home 1.75 Draw 3.90 Away 4.20 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.53
FC Porto
v
Napoli
FC Porto to win · 44% model probability · odds 2.15
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 51%
Scores 1-1 14.7% 0-0 12.6% 1-0 12.1%
Odds Home 2.15 Draw 3.40 Away 3.30 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.80
Lens
v
Como
Both teams to score · 65% model probability · odds 1.44
Model BTTS 65% O2.5 63%
Scores 1-1 13.8% 1-0 9.6% 0-0 9%
Odds Home 2.90 Draw 3.75 Away 2.20 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.50
PSV Eindhoven
v
Club Brugge KV
Both teams to score · 71% model probability · odds 1.36
Model BTTS 71% O2.5 71%
Scores 1-1 10.6% 2-1 8.4% 1-2 8.1%
Odds Home 2.05 Draw 4.10 Away 2.90 BTTS 1.36 O2.5 1.36
RB Leipzig
v
Manchester City
Manchester City to win · 62% model probability · odds 1.53
Model BTTS 66% O2.5 71%
Scores 1-1 11.3% 1-2 8.4% 2-1 8.2%
Odds Home 5.50 Draw 4.50 Away 1.53 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.36
Slavia Praha
v
Arsenal
Arsenal to win · 69% model probability · odds 1.25
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 60%
Scores 1-1 13.8% 1-0 10.3% 0-0 9.3%
Odds Home 8.50 Draw 6.50 Away 1.25 BTTS 1.95 O2.5 1.57
Viking
v
Sabah FA
Both teams to score · 67% model probability
Model BTTS 67% O2.5 66%
Scores 1-1 10.5% 2-1 8.8% 1-2 7.4%
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | DWW |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 | Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | LWW |
| 9 | Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | WLW |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WLW |
| 11 | Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | WWL |
| 12 | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | WLW |
| 14 | Bayern München | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | DDW |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | WLD |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | DWL |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | LWD |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | WLD |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | LWL |
| 20 | Inter | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 21 | Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 | Lask Linz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | WLLWL |
| 25 | Sabah FA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | LWLWL |
| 26 | Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 | LWL |
| 27 | Lens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 | LLW |
| 28 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 | LWLWW |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 | LLWWD |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -6 | 2 | DLDWD |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 | Viking | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | LDLWD |
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 | Lille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 | LLLWD |
10 ranked correct score picks + the full model boards, every morning. Go Premium — from $1.49/wk 95 founder places left
The Champions League is two different betting propositions stapled together. The league phase — 36 clubs, eight fixtures each against eight different opponents — produces a steady diet of mismatches and semi-mismatches, where the interesting markets are rarely the match result. The knockout rounds from February are elite-versus-elite, priced by the sharpest markets in club football, where value is scarce and small edges in goals and scoreline markets are all anyone honest can claim.
The league phase is where most of our selections come from. The format guarantees fixtures between clubs from leagues of very different strengths, and cross-league pricing is genuinely hard — a mid-ranking Bundesliga side against a Portuguese contender has no shared league table to anchor on. The model's ratings are built from opposition-adjusted results, so it prices cross-border fixtures the same way it prices domestic ones, and the disagreements with the market are more frequent here than in any domestic top flight we cover.
Scoring in the competition runs high — comfortably above 3 goals per game in recent league-phase seasons — because mismatches produce lopsided scorelines and because even the tighter fixtures are contested by the most attacking squads in Europe. Home advantage is real but thinner than domestic norms; travelling elite squads are far less bothered by a Tuesday abroad than a League One side is by a wet Friday away.
Qualifying rounds and the early league phase carry the widest uncertainty of the season: August European form arrives before domestic seasons have calibrated the ratings, and clubs from earlier-starting leagues hold a genuine sharpness edge the model picks up through their results. Expect our early-round selections to favour goals markets and clearer mismatches, with match-result picks becoming more frequent once domestic data accumulates through autumn.
In knockout football, one-off variance dominates: the better team goes out regularly, and no probability estimate makes a two-legged tie certain. We publish what the numbers support and nothing more. Every selection is archived at kickoff, settled at publication odds, and recorded in full on the model results page.