Falkirk
v
Heart Of Midlothian
Both teams to score · 59% model probability · odds 1.62
Model Goals 2.9 Corners 10.4 (4.5H · 5.8A) Cards 4.1 BTTS 59% O2.5 56%
Odds Home 3.50 Draw 3.60 Away 2.00 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.73
Hibernian
v
Kilmarnock
Hibernian to win · 67% model probability · odds 1.42 ▼ Steaming 15.0%
Model Goals 3.3 Corners 10.1 (5.1H · 5.0A) Cards 4.3 BTTS 56% O2.5 63%
Odds Home 1.42 Draw 4.75 Away 6.50 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.50
Motherwell
v
Aberdeen
Motherwell to win · 54% model probability · odds 1.80 ▼ Steaming 21.7%
Model Goals 2.9 Corners 9.0 (4.1H · 4.9A) Cards 4.2 BTTS 55% O2.5 54%
Odds Home 1.80 Draw 3.80 Away 4.00 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.73
Dundee
v
Motherwell
Both teams to score · 58% model probability · odds 1.67
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 53%
Odds Home 3.10 Draw 3.50 Away 2.15 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.80
Hibernian
v
Aberdeen
Hibernian to win · 54% model probability · odds 1.75
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 55%
Odds Home 1.75 Draw 3.75 Away 4.20 BTTS 1.70 O2.5 1.73
ST Johnstone
v
Falkirk
ST Johnstone to win · 44% model probability · odds 2.20
Model BTTS 57% O2.5 52%
Odds Home 2.20 Draw 3.50 Away 3.00 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.80
ST Mirren
v
Dundee Utd
Both teams to score · 58% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 54%
Odds Home 2.25 Draw 3.50 Away 2.90 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.73
Kilmarnock
v
Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian to win · 55% model probability · odds 1.67
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 60%
Odds Home 4.50 Draw 3.90 Away 1.67 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.62
Celtic
v
Rangers
Both teams to score · 64% model probability · odds 1.50
Model BTTS 64% O2.5 62%
Odds Home 2.00 Draw 3.70 Away 3.30 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.53
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Rangers | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | WWWWL |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 | WWWWL |
| 4 | ST Mirren | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | LLWDW |
| 5 | Motherwell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | LWDDW |
| 6 | Dundee | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 7 | ST Johnstone | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 | LWDLL |
| 8 | Hibernian | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 | LLWWL |
| 9 | Dundee Utd | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 | DLWLL |
| 10 | Aberdeen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 | DLLLW |
| 11 | Falkirk | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 | DLLDL |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 | DLLLL |
The Scottish Premiership presents a bettor with two different leagues wearing one badge. Fixtures involving the Old Firm are priced short, watched closely and rarely leave value on the table in the match result. The other half of the division — ten clubs separated by far less than the table suggests — behaves much more like the English Championship: competitive, drawish, and covered with far less bookmaker attention. Almost everything we publish in this league comes from that second category.
Structurally, Scotland's top flight is a 38-game season with a twist nothing else we cover has: after 33 rounds the division splits into a top and bottom six. The split changes incentives sharply in April and May — bottom-six sides fighting relegation against opponents with nothing to play for, top-six clubs recalibrating around European places — and the model's opposition-adjusted ratings handle that better than season-long averages do, because it weights who you played, not just how you did.
Goals sit in the mid-2s across the division, though Old Firm fixtures against the bottom half inflate the average; strip those out and the rest of the league is lower-scoring and tighter than the headline number implies. Home advantage is solid, and winter conditions — genuine winter, on some challenging surfaces — nudge scoring down from December to February.
The two-club problem is really a pricing problem. When a dominant side visits a mid-table club at 1.25, the match result is unbettable, but the goals lines, correct score and both-teams-to-score markets still have to spread probability across real uncertainty — and that is where the model finds its Scottish value. In the ten-club league within the league, straightforward match-result value appears regularly, especially early season when European qualifiers force weakened domestic line-ups that the market is slow to price.
The usual early-2026/27 caveat applies: ratings lean on last season until around six rounds accumulate, with promoted sides carrying the widest uncertainty. Every selection is archived at kickoff, settled at publication odds, and published in full on the model results page.