Charlotte
v
Orlando City SC
Charlotte to win · 52% model probability · odds 1.85
Model Goals 4.1 Corners 8.8 (4.3H · 4.5A) Cards 4.3 BTTS 75% O2.5 78%
Scores 2-1 9.1% 1-1 8.9% 3-1 6.9%
Odds Home 1.85 Draw 4.50 Away 3.40 BTTS 1.30 O2.5 1.25
FC Cincinnati
v
Philadelphia Union
Both teams to score · 68% model probability · odds 1.40
Model Goals 3.4 Corners 9.8 (4.5H · 5.3A) Cards 4.7 BTTS 68% O2.5 67%
Scores 1-1 11.1% 2-1 8.5% 1-2 8.1%
Odds Home 2.50 Draw 3.80 Away 2.60 BTTS 1.40 O2.5 1.44
Columbus Crew
v
DC United
Columbus Crew to win · 66% model probability · odds 1.44
Model Goals 3.4 Corners 9.7 (5.0H · 4.7A) Cards 4.1 BTTS 59% O2.5 66%
Scores 1-1 13.1% 2-1 9.1% 1-0 8.4%
Odds Home 1.44 Draw 4.75 Away 7.00 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.44
New York City FC
v
CF Montreal
New York City FC to win · 65% model probability · odds 1.45
Model Goals 3.2 Corners 9.1 (4.6H · 4.5A) Cards 4.2 BTTS 56% O2.5 61%
Scores 1-1 13% 2-1 9% 1-0 8%
Odds Home 1.45 Draw 5.00 Away 6.25 BTTS 1.70 O2.5 1.53
Sporting Kansas City
v
FC Dallas
Both teams to score · 65% model probability · odds 1.44
Model Goals 3.3 Corners 8.3 (4.6H · 3.6A) Cards 4.2 BTTS 65% O2.5 64%
Scores 1-1 12.3% 1-2 9.4% 0-1 7.8%
Odds Home 3.70 Draw 4.10 Away 1.85 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.48
St. Louis City
v
San Diego
Both teams to score · 67% model probability · odds 1.40
Model Goals 3.5 Corners 9.9 (4.9H · 5.0A) Cards 4.4 BTTS 67% O2.5 68%
Scores 1-1 12.1% 2-1 9.3% 1-2 7.3%
Odds Home 1.85 Draw 4.33 Away 3.50 BTTS 1.40 O2.5 1.40
Los Angeles Galaxy
v
Austin
Los Angeles Galaxy to win · 64% model probability · odds 1.48
Model Goals 3.5 Corners 9.2 (4.9H · 4.3A) Cards 4.3 BTTS 62% O2.5 68%
Scores 1-1 11.4% 2-1 9.7% 2-0 7.8%
Odds Home 1.48 Draw 5.00 Away 5.50 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.40
San Jose Earthquakes
v
Real Salt Lake
Both teams to score · 66% model probability · odds 1.44
Model Goals 3.3 Corners 10.5 (5.6H · 4.9A) Cards 4.8 BTTS 66% O2.5 64%
Scores 1-1 11.6% 2-1 9.8% 2-0 8.3%
Odds Home 2.35 Draw 4.00 Away 2.70 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.48
Colorado Rapids
v
Chicago Fire
Both teams to score · 62% model probability · odds 1.53
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 59%
Scores 1-1 13.3% 2-1 8.9% 1-0 8.5%
Odds Home 2.30 Draw 3.75 Away 2.88 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.60
Vancouver Whitecaps
v
Seattle Sounders
Vancouver Whitecaps to win · 59% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 64%
Scores 1-1 11.8% 2-1 9.8% 2-0 8.4%
Odds Home 1.62 Draw 4.33 Away 5.00 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.48
Nashville SC
v
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC to win · 63% model probability · odds 1.50
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 65%
Scores 1-1 10.8% 2-1 9.4% 2-0 6.8%
Odds Home 1.50 Draw 5.00 Away 5.50 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.48
Atlanta United FC
v
Toronto FC
Both teams to score · 66% model probability · odds 1.44
Model BTTS 66% O2.5 64%
Scores 1-1 13.4% 2-1 8.9% 1-0 8.8%
Odds Home 2.20 Draw 4.00 Away 2.88 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.48
New England Revolution
v
Inter Miami
Both teams to score · 72% model probability · odds 1.33
Model BTTS 72% O2.5 72%
Scores 1-1 12.6% 1-2 8.6% 2-1 8.2%
Odds Home 2.70 Draw 4.20 Away 2.25 BTTS 1.33 O2.5 1.33
Los Angeles FC
v
Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles FC to win · 56% model probability · odds 1.70
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 63%
Scores 1-1 12.5% 2-1 9.5% 1-0 8.3%
Odds Home 1.70 Draw 4.33 Away 4.20 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.50
Portland Timbers
v
Houston Dynamo
Portland Timbers to win · 54% model probability · odds 1.75
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 60%
Scores 1-1 13.6% 1-0 9.4% 2-1 8.9%
Odds Home 1.75 Draw 4.10 Away 4.00 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.57
Inter Miami
v
Charlotte
Inter Miami to win · 63% model probability
Model BTTS 64% O2.5 69%
FC Cincinnati
v
Nashville SC
Both teams to score · 61% model probability
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 57%
Philadelphia Union
v
Toronto FC
Philadelphia Union to win · 53% model probability
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 52%
New York Red Bulls
v
Atlanta United FC
Both teams to score · 67% model probability
Model BTTS 67% O2.5 65%
CF Montreal
v
Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps to win · 50% model probability
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 49%
Chicago Fire
v
Columbus Crew
Both teams to score · 59% model probability
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 55%
Orlando City SC
v
New England Revolution
Both teams to score · 69% model probability
Model BTTS 69% O2.5 68%
DC United
v
New York City FC
Both teams to score · 58% model probability
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 53%
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 34 | 58 | WLWDD |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 54 | LWDWL |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 51 | LLLDW |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 51 | WDDDD |
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 49 | DLDDD |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 47 | DDWDL |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 43 | DWDDD |
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 43 | LDDLW |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 42 | WWWDL |
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | -9 | 41 | DDWLW |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | -3 | 40 | WWDLD |
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | -6 | 38 | WDWDD |
| 13 | San Diego | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -6 | 35 | LDDDL |
| 14 | Austin | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | -18 | 34 | LWLLL |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 32 | 6 | 4 | 22 | -42 | 22 | LLLLD |
10 ranked correct score picks + the full model boards, every morning. Go Premium — from $1.49/wk 95 founder places left
MLS is built differently from every European league we cover, and betting it with European instincts is expensive. The league is engineered for parity — salary caps, allocation money, drafts — so the gap between its best and worst sides is narrower than in any major European division. Dominant seasons happen, but dynasty pricing does not pay here: short favourites in MLS lose at rates that would be shocking in Spain or Germany.
Three structural facts drive the betting profile. First, travel: clubs cross a continent and multiple time zones for away fixtures, and home advantage in MLS is consistently among the strongest in world football — altitude in some venues, summer heat and humidity in others, artificial surfaces in a few. Away form league-wide is poor in a way European bettors underestimate. Second, the calendar: MLS runs spring to autumn, which means it is in mid-season rhythm while European leagues are in pre-season — through the summer months it is the deepest, most data-rich league on our slate. Third, squad rules produce mid-season roster upheaval around the summer transfer and international windows that the market prices slowly.
Scoring runs high — recent seasons have averaged around or above 3 goals per game, helped by attacking roster construction and the travel-weakened away sides — which keeps overs and both teams to score structurally live. The draw rate is unremarkable, but the home/away split is extreme enough that the model's separated home and away ratings matter more here than anywhere else we cover.
Opposition-adjusted ratings with distinct home and away components are the right tool for a league whose defining feature is venue asymmetry. Expect selections concentrated in home-side match results, overs and BTTS, with particular value in the weeks when European-facing bookmakers are distracted by their own pre-seasons. Cross-conference fixtures, where teams meet rarely, are another spot where the market anchors on reputation and the model on results.
Every MLS selection is archived at kickoff, settled against the odds available at publication, and published in full on the model results page.