New York City FC
v
Nashville SC
Both teams to score · 58% model probability · odds 1.62
Model Goals 2.8 Corners 9.2 (4.6H · 4.7A) Cards 4.2 BTTS 58% O2.5 53%
Odds Home 2.90 Draw 3.50 Away 2.30 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.80
Inter Miami
v
Atlanta United FC
Inter Miami to win · 72% model probability · odds 1.33
Model BTTS 66% O2.5 78%
Odds Home 1.33 Draw 5.50 Away 8.00 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.25
Philadelphia Union
v
CF Montreal
Philadelphia Union to win · 66% model probability · odds 1.44
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 66%
Odds Home 1.44 Draw 5.00 Away 6.50 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.44
FC Cincinnati
v
DC United
FC Cincinnati to win · 60% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 64% O2.5 68%
Odds Home 1.57 Draw 4.33 Away 5.50 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.40
Orlando City SC
v
San Diego
Both teams to score · 71% model probability · odds 1.36
Model BTTS 71% O2.5 71%
Odds Home 2.15 Draw 3.90 Away 3.10 BTTS 1.36 O2.5 1.36
Columbus Crew
v
Colorado Rapids
Columbus Crew to win · 49% model probability · odds 1.95
Model BTTS 55% O2.5 52%
Odds Home 1.95 Draw 3.75 Away 3.60 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.80
Toronto FC
v
Chicago Fire
Both teams to score · 63% model probability · odds 1.50
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 60%
Odds Home 2.88 Draw 3.70 Away 2.30 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.57
Charlotte
v
Houston Dynamo
Both teams to score · 59% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 55%
Odds Home 2.20 Draw 3.50 Away 3.20 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.70
Seattle Sounders
v
New York Red Bulls
Seattle Sounders to win · 52% model probability · odds 1.83
Model BTTS 68% O2.5 69%
Odds Home 1.83 Draw 4.00 Away 3.90 BTTS 1.40 O2.5 1.40
FC Dallas
v
Sporting Kansas City
FC Dallas to win · 66% model probability · odds 1.45
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 65%
Odds Home 1.45 Draw 5.00 Away 6.50 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.44
Austin
v
San Jose Earthquakes
Both teams to score · 64% model probability · odds 1.50
Model BTTS 64% O2.5 61%
Odds Home 2.20 Draw 3.75 Away 3.00 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.53
Real Salt Lake
v
Los Angeles FC
Both teams to score · 61% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 57%
Odds Home 2.60 Draw 3.70 Away 2.50 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.67
Los Angeles Galaxy
v
New England Revolution
Both teams to score · 65% model probability · odds 1.44
Model BTTS 65% O2.5 63%
Odds Home 2.40 Draw 3.75 Away 2.70 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.53
Vancouver Whitecaps
v
St. Louis City
Vancouver Whitecaps to win · 67% model probability · odds 1.45
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 66%
Odds Home 1.45 Draw 5.00 Away 6.50 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.44
Portland Timbers
v
Minnesota United FC
Both teams to score · 64% model probability · odds 1.50
Model BTTS 64% O2.5 62%
Odds Home 2.10 Draw 3.70 Away 3.30 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.53
Philadelphia Union
v
FC Cincinnati
Philadelphia Union to win · 56% model probability · odds 1.73
Model BTTS 66% O2.5 68%
Odds Home 1.73 Draw 4.20 Away 4.00 BTTS 1.40 O2.5 1.40
Atlanta United FC
v
Orlando City SC
Both teams to score · 65% model probability · odds 1.44
Model BTTS 65% O2.5 64%
Odds Home 2.05 Draw 3.80 Away 3.10 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.50
Toronto FC
v
Nashville SC
Both teams to score · 62% model probability · odds 1.50
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 59%
Odds Home 2.90 Draw 3.60 Away 2.20 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.57
DC United
v
Columbus Crew
Both teams to score · 61% model probability · odds 1.53
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 57%
Odds Home 2.35 Draw 3.50 Away 2.70 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.65
CF Montreal
v
Charlotte
Both teams to score · 64% model probability · odds 1.50
Model BTTS 64% O2.5 61%
Odds Home 2.30 Draw 3.70 Away 2.75 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.53
New York City FC
v
New England Revolution
Both teams to score · 61% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 58%
Odds Home 2.05 Draw 3.60 Away 3.25 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.67
Chicago Fire
v
Inter Miami
Both teams to score · 74% model probability · odds 1.28
Model BTTS 74% O2.5 75%
Odds Home 2.15 Draw 4.00 Away 2.80 BTTS 1.28 O2.5 1.28
Minnesota United FC
v
FC Dallas
Both teams to score · 59% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 56%
Odds Home 1.95 Draw 3.70 Away 3.50 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.67
Austin
v
Colorado Rapids
Both teams to score · 58% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 53%
Odds Home 2.40 Draw 3.50 Away 2.70 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.75
Houston Dynamo
v
Real Salt Lake
Houston Dynamo to win · 56% model probability · odds 1.67
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 58%
Odds Home 1.67 Draw 3.90 Away 4.50 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.60
Los Angeles FC
v
New York Red Bulls
Los Angeles FC to win · 55% model probability
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 58%
Vancouver Whitecaps
v
Los Angeles Galaxy
Vancouver Whitecaps to win · 76% model probability · odds 1.27
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 69%
Odds Home 1.27 Draw 5.75 Away 9.50 BTTS 1.75 O2.5 1.40
San Diego
v
San Jose Earthquakes
San Diego to win · 56% model probability · odds 1.67
Model BTTS 69% O2.5 72%
Odds Home 1.67 Draw 4.20 Away 4.20 BTTS 1.36 O2.5 1.33
Portland Timbers
v
St. Louis City
Both teams to score · 64% model probability · odds 1.44
Model BTTS 64% O2.5 63%
Odds Home 2.00 Draw 3.75 Away 3.30 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.50
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 39 | DLWWW |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 36 | DDLLD |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 34 | DLLLL |
| 5 | FC Dallas | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 34 | DLWWD |
| 6 | St. Louis City | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 34 | DWDWD |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 22 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 31 | WLWWW |
| 8 | San Diego | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 30 | WWLWD |
| 9 | Minnesota United FC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | -2 | 29 | DWLDD |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 28 | LLLDD |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 28 | LDWLW |
| 12 | Seattle Sounders | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -5 | 26 | DDLLL |
| 13 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | -7 | 26 | LDWLD |
| 14 | Austin | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -13 | 24 | WDWLL |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -34 | 15 | LLDLL |
MLS is built differently from every European league we cover, and betting it with European instincts is expensive. The league is engineered for parity — salary caps, allocation money, drafts — so the gap between its best and worst sides is narrower than in any major European division. Dominant seasons happen, but dynasty pricing does not pay here: short favourites in MLS lose at rates that would be shocking in Spain or Germany.
Three structural facts drive the betting profile. First, travel: clubs cross a continent and multiple time zones for away fixtures, and home advantage in MLS is consistently among the strongest in world football — altitude in some venues, summer heat and humidity in others, artificial surfaces in a few. Away form league-wide is poor in a way European bettors underestimate. Second, the calendar: MLS runs spring to autumn, which means it is in mid-season rhythm while European leagues are in pre-season — through the summer months it is the deepest, most data-rich league on our slate. Third, squad rules produce mid-season roster upheaval around the summer transfer and international windows that the market prices slowly.
Scoring runs high — recent seasons have averaged around or above 3 goals per game, helped by attacking roster construction and the travel-weakened away sides — which keeps overs and both teams to score structurally live. The draw rate is unremarkable, but the home/away split is extreme enough that the model's separated home and away ratings matter more here than anywhere else we cover.
Opposition-adjusted ratings with distinct home and away components are the right tool for a league whose defining feature is venue asymmetry. Expect selections concentrated in home-side match results, overs and BTTS, with particular value in the weeks when European-facing bookmakers are distracted by their own pre-seasons. Cross-conference fixtures, where teams meet rarely, are another spot where the market anchors on reputation and the model on results.
Every MLS selection is archived at kickoff, settled against the odds available at publication, and published in full on the model results page.