New York City FC
v
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC to win · 53% model probability · odds 1.80
Model BTTS 64% O2.5 65%
Odds Home 1.80 Draw 3.90 Away 4.00 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.48
San Jose Earthquakes
v
Los Angeles FC
Both teams to score · 65% model probability · odds 1.44
Model BTTS 65% O2.5 63%
Odds Home 3.00 Draw 3.70 Away 2.15 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.53
CF Montreal
v
Columbus Crew
Both teams to score · 63% model probability · odds 1.53
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 59%
Odds Home 2.35 Draw 3.60 Away 2.62 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.60
New England Revolution
v
Orlando City SC
New England Revolution to win · 53% model probability · odds 1.80
Model BTTS 66% O2.5 66%
Odds Home 1.80 Draw 4.00 Away 3.70 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.44
DC United
v
Charlotte
Both teams to score · 63% model probability · odds 1.50
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 60%
Odds Home 2.50 Draw 3.60 Away 2.55 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.57
Minnesota United FC
v
Los Angeles Galaxy
Minnesota United FC to win · 63% model probability · odds 1.50
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 68%
Odds Home 1.50 Draw 4.33 Away 5.50 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.40
Houston Dynamo
v
FC Cincinnati
Houston Dynamo to win · 52% model probability · odds 1.80
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 63%
Odds Home 1.80 Draw 3.90 Away 3.80 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.50
Sporting Kansas City
v
Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union to win · 60% model probability · odds 1.60
Model BTTS 65% O2.5 69%
Odds Home 4.75 Draw 4.20 Away 1.60 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.40
FC Dallas
v
Austin
FC Dallas to win · 61% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 62%
Odds Home 1.57 Draw 4.10 Away 5.00 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.53
St. Louis City
v
Toronto FC
St. Louis City to win · 60% model probability · odds 1.60
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 62%
Odds Home 1.60 Draw 4.10 Away 5.25 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.50
Colorado Rapids
v
Seattle Sounders
Both teams to score · 58% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 55%
Odds Home 1.91 Draw 3.60 Away 3.50 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.70
Real Salt Lake
v
Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps to win · 54% model probability · odds 1.73
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 63%
Odds Home 4.10 Draw 3.90 Away 1.73 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.50
Nashville SC
v
Chicago Fire
Nashville SC to win · 55% model probability · odds 1.73
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 64%
Odds Home 1.73 Draw 4.00 Away 4.10 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.50
Portland Timbers
v
Atlanta United FC
Both teams to score · 66% model probability · odds 1.40
Model BTTS 66% O2.5 66%
Odds Home 1.90 Draw 3.90 Away 3.60 BTTS 1.40 O2.5 1.44
Inter Miami
v
San Diego
Inter Miami to win · 65% model probability · odds 1.48
Model BTTS 71% O2.5 78%
Odds Home 1.48 Draw 4.75 Away 5.75 BTTS 1.36 O2.5 1.25
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 41 | WWDDL |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 41 | WDWDW |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 40 | LWDDD |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 35 | WDLWL |
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 32 | LDWLD |
| 9 | San Diego | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 30 | LLLWW |
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | -9 | 30 | DLWLD |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -2 | 29 | LLDLL |
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 29 | LLLDW |
| 13 | Austin | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | -12 | 29 | WDDWD |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
MLS is built differently from every European league we cover, and betting it with European instincts is expensive. The league is engineered for parity — salary caps, allocation money, drafts — so the gap between its best and worst sides is narrower than in any major European division. Dominant seasons happen, but dynasty pricing does not pay here: short favourites in MLS lose at rates that would be shocking in Spain or Germany.
Three structural facts drive the betting profile. First, travel: clubs cross a continent and multiple time zones for away fixtures, and home advantage in MLS is consistently among the strongest in world football — altitude in some venues, summer heat and humidity in others, artificial surfaces in a few. Away form league-wide is poor in a way European bettors underestimate. Second, the calendar: MLS runs spring to autumn, which means it is in mid-season rhythm while European leagues are in pre-season — through the summer months it is the deepest, most data-rich league on our slate. Third, squad rules produce mid-season roster upheaval around the summer transfer and international windows that the market prices slowly.
Scoring runs high — recent seasons have averaged around or above 3 goals per game, helped by attacking roster construction and the travel-weakened away sides — which keeps overs and both teams to score structurally live. The draw rate is unremarkable, but the home/away split is extreme enough that the model's separated home and away ratings matter more here than anywhere else we cover.
Opposition-adjusted ratings with distinct home and away components are the right tool for a league whose defining feature is venue asymmetry. Expect selections concentrated in home-side match results, overs and BTTS, with particular value in the weeks when European-facing bookmakers are distracted by their own pre-seasons. Cross-conference fixtures, where teams meet rarely, are another spot where the market anchors on reputation and the model on results.
Every MLS selection is archived at kickoff, settled against the odds available at publication, and published in full on the model results page.