Aarhus
v
SC Braga
SC Braga to win · 47% model probability · odds 1.95
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 49%
Scores 1-1 13.4% 2-1 8.8% 1-0 8.5%
Odds Home 3.80 Draw 3.30 Away 1.95 BTTS 1.73 O2.5 1.95
Atalanta
v
Kairat Almaty
Atalanta to win · 79% model probability · odds 1.18
Model BTTS 46% O2.5 65%
Scores 1-1 13.6% 0-1 8.9% 1-2 8.8%
Odds Home 1.18 Draw 6.25 Away 15.00 BTTS 2.10 O2.5 1.44
FK Crvena Zvezda
v
Inter Club D'Escaldes
FK Crvena Zvezda to win · 90% model probability · odds 1.07
Model BTTS 36% O2.5 73%
Scores 1-1 9.8% 2-1 9.5% 2-0 7.1%
Odds Home 1.07 Draw 9.50 Away 26.00 BTTS 2.50 O2.5 1.33
KuPS
v
Gent
Both teams to score · 60% model probability
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 55%
Scores 1-1 12.8% 2-1 8.4% 1-2 8.4%
Lincoln Red Imps FC
v
HNK Hajduk Split
Both teams to score · 58% model probability
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 56%
Scores 1-1 12.1% 2-1 9.7% 1-0 8.4%
FC Midtjylland
v
Ajax
Both teams to score · 66% model probability · odds 1.44
Model BTTS 66% O2.5 63%
Scores 1-1 12% 2-1 8.6% 1-2 8.2%
Odds Home 2.88 Draw 3.50 Away 2.20 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.50
Mjallby AIF
v
Borac Banja Luka
Both teams to score · 58% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 54%
Scores 1-1 13.5% 0-1 10.8% 1-2 9.3%
Odds Home 2.10 Draw 3.60 Away 3.00 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.73
FC Thun
v
Heart Of Midlothian
Both teams to score · 73% model probability
Model BTTS 73% O2.5 73%
Scores 1-1 8.9% 1-2 8% 2-1 7.3%
Trabzonspor
v
SC Freiburg
Both teams to score · 64% model probability · odds 1.44
Model BTTS 64% O2.5 61%
Scores 1-1 13% 2-1 9.4% 1-0 9.4%
Odds Home 2.50 Draw 3.60 Away 2.50 BTTS 1.44 O2.5 1.53
FC Copenhagen
v
FC Iberia 1999
FC Copenhagen to win · 83% model probability · odds 1.14
Model BTTS 43% O2.5 68%
Scores 1-1 13% 2-1 9.1% 1-0 8.4%
Odds Home 1.14 Draw 7.00 Away 17.00 BTTS 2.20 O2.5 1.40
Getafe
v
Brighton
Brighton to win · 57% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 49% O2.5 48%
Scores 1-1 14.1% 0-1 10.9% 0-0 10.2%
Odds Home 5.25 Draw 3.60 Away 1.62 BTTS 1.91 O2.5 1.95
FC Lugano
v
Kauno Žalgiris
FC Lugano to win · 79% model probability · odds 1.18
Model BTTS 51% O2.5 70%
Scores 1-1 13.6% 1-2 8.4% 0-1 8.2%
Odds Home 1.18 Draw 6.25 Away 13.00 BTTS 1.83 O2.5 1.36
Monaco
v
FC Nordsjaelland
Monaco to win · 63% model probability · odds 1.48
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 65%
Scores 1-1 11.6% 2-1 9.2% 1-2 7.3%
Odds Home 1.48 Draw 4.33 Away 5.50 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.48
Panathinaikos
v
CSKA Sofia
Panathinaikos to win · 67% model probability · odds 1.40
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 56%
Scores 1-1 14.4% 0-0 10.5% 1-0 10.2%
Odds Home 1.40 Draw 4.50 Away 7.00 BTTS 1.83 O2.5 1.67
Riga
v
FK Jablonec
Riga to win · 44% model probability · odds 2.25
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 51%
Scores 1-1 9.9% 2-1 9.9% 2-0 9.9%
Odds Home 2.25 Draw 3.40 Away 2.90 BTTS 1.73 O2.5 1.90
St. Truiden
v
Brann
St. Truiden to win · 55% model probability · odds 1.70
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 64%
Scores 1-1 11.8% 1-2 8.4% 2-1 8.3%
Odds Home 1.70 Draw 4.00 Away 4.10 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.50
Twente
v
Pafos
Twente to win · 73% model probability · odds 1.27
Model BTTS 54% O2.5 67%
Scores 1-1 14.1% 0-0 9.4% 1-0 9.4%
Odds Home 1.27 Draw 5.75 Away 8.50 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 1.40
Universitatea Craiova
v
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Universitatea Craiova to win · 65% model probability · odds 1.44
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 55%
Scores 1-1 12.9% 1-0 11.1% 2-0 10.1%
Odds Home 1.44 Draw 4.33 Away 6.25 BTTS 1.83 O2.5 1.70
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | FC Lugano | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 | Brann | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 5 | Twente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 6 | Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 7 | St. Truiden | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 8 | HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 9 | Brighton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | DW |
| 10 | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | DW |
| 11 | Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | WD |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | DW |
| 13 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | WL |
| 14 | Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | WL |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | LW |
| 16 | SC Braga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | WL |
| 17 | Gent | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | LW |
| 18 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 | LW |
| 19 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 21 | Riga | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 22 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 23 | CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 24 | FK Jablonec | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 25 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | LD |
| 26 | Aarhus | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 27 | Pafos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 28 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | LD |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 30 | Getafe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 | LD |
| 31 | Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 | LD |
| 32 | FC Thun | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 33 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 34 | KuPS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 | LL |
10 ranked correct score picks + the full model boards, every morning. Go Premium — from $1.49/wk 95 founder places left
The Conference League is UEFA's third competition and, for a bettor, its most interesting one. It has the widest quality spread of any European tournament — champions of small leagues meeting mid-table sides from big ones — and the least bookmaker attention of the three. Prices for a Thursday night tie between a Welsh champion and a Norwegian runner-up are set with a fraction of the care that goes into a Champions League line, and cross-league pricing is exactly where a results-based rating model earns its keep.
The competition's structure mirrors the Europa League: qualifying rounds through July and August, a 36-team league phase into December, then knockouts from February. For British and Irish audiences it matters more than its prestige suggests — clubs from England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland appear here every season, and the market for those ties is disproportionately active relative to the competition's profile.
Two structural features drive the betting. First, mismatches are everywhere: qualifying rounds routinely pair full-time and semi-professional squads, which pushes scoring high and makes goals markets the natural habitat. Second, motivation is unusually reliable — for most clubs in it, this is the biggest stage of their season, so the rotated-squad problem that plagues Europa League pricing is rarer here. The exception is the handful of big-league clubs parachuted in, who treat early rounds as pre-season; their short prices are among the most fadeable in European football.
The model rates every club from opposition-adjusted results, so a fixture between leagues that share no table is priced the same way as a domestic one. Early qualifying carries the usual seasonal caveat — clubs from summer leagues hold a genuine sharpness edge over opponents still in pre-season, and the ratings pick that up through results faster than the market does. Expect selections weighted toward goals lines and match results in mismatches, thinning as the field levels out in the league phase.
Every Conference League selection is archived at kickoff, settled at the odds available at publication, and published in full on the model results page.