Ararat-Armenia
v
Sparta Praha
Sparta Praha to win · 55% model probability · odds 1.65
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 56%
Odds Home 5.25 Draw 4.00 Away 1.65 BTTS 1.70 O2.5 1.67
Omonia Nicosia
v
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo to win · 46% model probability · odds 1.95
Model BTTS 49% O2.5 44%
Odds Home 4.00 Draw 3.30 Away 1.95 BTTS 1.91 O2.5 2.10
AC Milan
v
Benfica
Both teams to score · 59% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 55%
Odds Home 2.05 Draw 3.50 Away 3.50 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.73
Anderlecht
v
Lyon
Both teams to score · 61% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 57%
Odds Home 3.00 Draw 3.70 Away 2.25 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.67
Bayer Leverkusen
v
Celje
Bayer Leverkusen to win · 82% model probability · odds 1.14
Model BTTS 53% O2.5 76%
Odds Home 1.14 Draw 7.50 Away 15.00 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 1.28
Hapoel Beer Sheva
v
Dinamo Zagreb
Both teams to score · 62% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 61%
Odds Home 3.60 Draw 3.75 Away 1.95 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.67
Olympiakos Piraeus
v
Jagiellonia
Olympiakos Piraeus to win · 69% model probability · odds 1.38
Model BTTS 49% O2.5 58%
Odds Home 1.38 Draw 4.50 Away 8.50 BTTS 1.95 O2.5 1.67
Sturm Graz
v
Rennes
Both teams to score · 61% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 59%
Odds Home 3.75 Draw 3.80 Away 1.90 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.62
Sunderland
v
AZ Alkmaar
Sunderland to win · 57% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 54% O2.5 55%
Odds Home 1.62 Draw 4.33 Away 5.00 BTTS 1.75 O2.5 1.73
Levski Sofia
v
Red Bull Salzburg
Both teams to score · 62% model probability · odds 1.50
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 58%
Odds Home 2.90 Draw 3.50 Away 2.30 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.62
OFI
v
1899 Hoffenheim
1899 Hoffenheim to win · 65% model probability · odds 1.42
Model BTTS 55% O2.5 60%
Odds Home 7.50 Draw 4.50 Away 1.42 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 1.62
Beşiktaş
v
Marseille
Beşiktaş to win · 54% model probability · odds 1.80
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 59%
Odds Home 1.80 Draw 3.80 Away 4.10 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.62
Celtic
v
Ferencvarosi TC
Celtic to win · 56% model probability · odds 1.67
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 63%
Odds Home 1.67 Draw 4.00 Away 4.75 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.53
Crystal Palace
v
Lech Poznan
Crystal Palace to win · 65% model probability · odds 1.40
Model BTTS 52% O2.5 57%
Odds Home 1.40 Draw 4.50 Away 7.50 BTTS 1.91 O2.5 1.67
Juventus
v
NEC Nijmegen
Juventus to win · 78% model probability · odds 1.22
Model BTTS 49% O2.5 66%
Odds Home 1.22 Draw 6.00 Away 11.00 BTTS 1.95 O2.5 1.44
Lillestrom
v
Torreense
Lillestrom to win · 58% model probability · odds 1.60
Model BTTS 57% O2.5 59%
Odds Home 1.60 Draw 4.20 Away 5.00 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.62
Plzen
v
Union St. Gilloise
Both teams to score · 58% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 53%
Odds Home 2.60 Draw 3.30 Away 2.60 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.80
Real Sociedad
v
Bournemouth
Both teams to score · 61% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 61% O2.5 56%
Odds Home 2.70 Draw 3.50 Away 2.45 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.73
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anderlecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Ararat-Armenia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WD |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WWDWW |
| 5 | Beşiktaş | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LWWWW |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | Celje | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | Celtic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | Crystal Palace | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | Ferencvarosi TC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WWDWD |
| 12 | Dinamo Zagreb | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | Jagiellonia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WWDW |
| 16 | Juventus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 | Lech Poznan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | DWWW |
| 18 | Bayer Leverkusen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | Levski Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | Lillestrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WD |
| 21 | Lyon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | Marseille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | AC Milan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | NEC Nijmegen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | OFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WW |
| 26 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 27 | Omonia Nicosia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WLWD |
| 28 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 29 | Rennes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 30 | Red Bull Salzburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WWDW |
| 31 | Sparta Praha | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 32 | Sturm Graz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 33 | Sunderland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 | Torreense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 35 | Union St. Gilloise | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 36 | Plzen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WL |
The Europa League is the most inefficiently priced major competition in European football, and the reasons are structural. It mixes clubs for whom Thursday night is the season's highlight with clubs treating it as an obligation between league fixtures. It spans leagues whose relative strength the market prices lazily. And it forces odds compilers to cover dozens of cross-border fixtures with a fraction of the attention the Champions League receives. For a model that rates teams purely on opposition-adjusted results, this is fertile ground.
Rotation is the defining variable. Squads from the big five leagues routinely rest key players in the league phase, while clubs from mid-ranking leagues field full-strength sides for whom European qualification transformed their season. The market prices reputations; results reflect the teams actually selected. Our model works from results, so when a big-league club's rotated European output diverges from its domestic numbers, the ratings register it — and the market's habit of pricing the shirt rather than the eleven is the single most persistent source of Europa League value we find.
Scoring runs high, as it does in all modern UEFA competition — mismatches, attacking squads and thin motivation for defensive discipline in dead-rubber fixtures all push the same direction. Home advantage varies more than in domestic football: some Eastern and Southern European grounds are genuinely difficult European venues in a way league position never shows.
Cross-league fixtures are the model's natural territory, since its ratings don't depend on shared league tables. Early qualifying rounds in July and August are actually among its stronger windows — clubs from summer-calendar and earlier-starting leagues carry real sharpness edges over opponents in pre-season, and results bear that out year after year while the market underweights it.
Expect selections weighted toward goals markets and match results in fixtures where motivation and rotation pull the price out of line. Knockout football from spring carries one-off variance no model escapes, and we publish accordingly. Every selection is archived at kickoff, settled at publication odds, and published in full on the model results page.