AC Milan
v
Ferencvarosi TC
AC Milan to win · 68% model probability · odds 1.33
Model BTTS 55% O2.5 63%
Scores 1-1 11.5% 1-2 9.8% 0-2 8.6%
Odds Home 1.33 Draw 5.25 Away 7.50 BTTS 1.91 O2.5 1.53
Anderlecht
v
Red Bull Salzburg
Both teams to score · 62% model probability · odds 1.53
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 60%
Scores 1-1 11.3% 1-2 9% 2-1 7.6%
Odds Home 1.90 Draw 3.75 Away 3.50 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.62
Crystal Palace
v
1899 Hoffenheim
Both teams to score · 62% model probability · odds 1.53
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 61%
Scores 1-1 12.3% 2-1 8.9% 1-2 7.8%
Odds Home 1.85 Draw 3.60 Away 3.60 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.57
Levski Sofia
v
Jagiellonia
Levski Sofia to win · 49% model probability · odds 1.95
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 52%
Scores 1-1 12.9% 1-0 11.2% 2-0 10.1%
Odds Home 1.95 Draw 3.50 Away 3.50 BTTS 1.70 O2.5 1.80
Lillestrom
v
Plzen
Both teams to score · 65% model probability · odds 1.50
Model BTTS 65% O2.5 62%
Scores 1-1 9% 1-2 8.4% 2-2 7.1%
Odds Home 2.75 Draw 3.60 Away 2.30 BTTS 1.50 O2.5 1.57
NEC Nijmegen
v
Omonia Nicosia
Both teams to score · 63% model probability · odds 1.57
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 62%
Scores 1-2 9.5% 1-1 9.5% 0-2 7.4%
Odds Home 1.73 Draw 3.90 Away 4.00 BTTS 1.57 O2.5 1.57
Real Sociedad
v
Lyon
Both teams to score · 62% model probability · odds 1.53
Model BTTS 62% O2.5 60%
Scores 1-1 13.1% 2-1 9.3% 1-0 8.8%
Odds Home 1.90 Draw 3.70 Away 3.60 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.57
Rennes
v
Olympiakos Piraeus
Both teams to score · 59% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 55%
Scores 1-1 12.6% 1-2 9.2% 0-1 7.8%
Odds Home 2.10 Draw 3.50 Away 3.10 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.73
Sparta Praha
v
Bournemouth
Bournemouth to win · 58% model probability · odds 1.55
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 60%
Scores 1-1 11.4% 2-1 9.6% 2-0 7.5%
Odds Home 5.25 Draw 4.00 Away 1.55 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.62
AZ Alkmaar
v
Juventus
Juventus to win · 47% model probability · odds 1.95
Model BTTS 56% O2.5 52%
Scores 1-1 13.8% 0-0 8.7% 0-1 8.5%
Odds Home 3.60 Draw 3.40 Away 1.95 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.80
Bayer Leverkusen
v
Marseille
Bayer Leverkusen to win · 67% model probability · odds 1.40
Model BTTS 59% O2.5 67%
Scores 1-1 10.6% 2-1 9.5% 2-0 7.1%
Odds Home 1.40 Draw 4.75 Away 6.25 BTTS 1.67 O2.5 1.44
Benfica
v
Lech Poznan
Benfica to win · 79% model probability · odds 1.18
Model BTTS 51% O2.5 70%
Scores 1-1 12.9% 2-1 9.2% 1-0 8.3%
Odds Home 1.18 Draw 6.50 Away 12.00 BTTS 1.95 O2.5 1.36
Celta Vigo
v
Union St. Gilloise
Both teams to score · 60% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 57%
Scores 1-1 12.9% 1-2 9.5% 0-1 9.3%
Odds Home 1.95 Draw 3.75 Away 3.25 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.67
Celtic
v
Beşiktaş
Both teams to score · 63% model probability · odds 1.53
Model BTTS 63% O2.5 59%
Scores 1-1 12.1% 2-1 9.5% 1-0 7.7%
Odds Home 2.80 Draw 3.60 Away 2.25 BTTS 1.53 O2.5 1.62
Hapoel Beer Sheva
v
OFI
Both teams to score · 60% model probability · odds 1.62
Model BTTS 60% O2.5 58%
Scores 1-1 10.5% 2-1 9.7% 2-0 7.8%
Odds Home 1.95 Draw 3.50 Away 3.50 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.67
Sturm Graz
v
Celje
Sturm Graz to win · 59% model probability · odds 1.55
Model BTTS 58% O2.5 60%
Scores 1-1 13.4% 2-1 8.4% 1-2 8.2%
Odds Home 1.55 Draw 4.10 Away 5.00 BTTS 1.62 O2.5 1.57
Sunderland
v
Dinamo Zagreb
Sunderland to win · 64% model probability · odds 1.42
Model BTTS 54% O2.5 58%
Scores 1-1 13.2% 0-1 9.9% 1-2 9.4%
Odds Home 1.42 Draw 4.50 Away 6.25 BTTS 1.80 O2.5 1.62
Torreense
v
Ararat-Armenia
Torreense to win · 53% model probability · odds 1.70
Model BTTS 50% O2.5 48%
Scores 1-1 13.2% 0-1 9.4% 1-2 9.3%
Odds Home 1.70 Draw 3.70 Away 4.33 BTTS 1.95 O2.5 2.00
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | WDW |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | DWW |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | DWW |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WWL |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | DWD |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | WDL |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | DLW |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | LDW |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | WDL |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | LWD |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 | WLD |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 | WDL |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 | DLW |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | LWL |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 | LWL |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | LLW |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 | LDL |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
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The Europa League is the most inefficiently priced major competition in European football, and the reasons are structural. It mixes clubs for whom Thursday night is the season's highlight with clubs treating it as an obligation between league fixtures. It spans leagues whose relative strength the market prices lazily. And it forces odds compilers to cover dozens of cross-border fixtures with a fraction of the attention the Champions League receives. For a model that rates teams purely on opposition-adjusted results, this is fertile ground.
Rotation is the defining variable. Squads from the big five leagues routinely rest key players in the league phase, while clubs from mid-ranking leagues field full-strength sides for whom European qualification transformed their season. The market prices reputations; results reflect the teams actually selected. Our model works from results, so when a big-league club's rotated European output diverges from its domestic numbers, the ratings register it — and the market's habit of pricing the shirt rather than the eleven is the single most persistent source of Europa League value we find.
Scoring runs high, as it does in all modern UEFA competition — mismatches, attacking squads and thin motivation for defensive discipline in dead-rubber fixtures all push the same direction. Home advantage varies more than in domestic football: some Eastern and Southern European grounds are genuinely difficult European venues in a way league position never shows.
Cross-league fixtures are the model's natural territory, since its ratings don't depend on shared league tables. Early qualifying rounds in July and August are actually among its stronger windows — clubs from summer-calendar and earlier-starting leagues carry real sharpness edges over opponents in pre-season, and results bear that out year after year while the market underweights it.
Expect selections weighted toward goals markets and match results in fixtures where motivation and rotation pull the price out of line. Knockout football from spring carries one-off variance no model escapes, and we publish accordingly. Every selection is archived at kickoff, settled at publication odds, and published in full on the model results page.